We’ve got a full slate of NBA action today after basketball took a backseat to Super Bowl 59 last night, but one game in particular is circled on everyone’s calendar. All eyes will be on Luka Dončić and the Los Angeles Lakers as they host the Utah Jazz at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Lakers vs. Jazz Pick and Prediction
This is Dončić’s Lakers debut, and it’s a very soft landing spot against the 12-39 Jazz. Utah is playing its third road game in four days and is in the middle of a stretch that has this struggling team play five times in seven days heading into the All-Star Break.
The Jazz aren’t very good nor will they be very fresh, but I still plan to fade a Laker in this spot. Austin Reaves is coming off a career game and has proven to be a viable option in this league, but he’s going to have to settle into a new role with so much of the perimeter usage finding a new home starting tonight.
That’s not to say that he can’t produce or even that he won’t long-term, but priority No. 1 in the City of Angels is to make Dončić comfortable and to marry his array of skills with those of LeBron James.
The Mavs had Dončić and a high-usage co-star in Kyrie Irving — none of their teammates averaged more than 14.2 points or 3.7 assists. I believe asking Reaves to reach either of those numbers tonight or on any sort of regular basis is an uphill battle, which means he’d have to post a high rebound total to come through on his PRA projection of 27.5.
The Jazz do very few things well, but they do clean the glass at the fourth-highest rate in the NBA. I also expect them to operate at a slower-than-normal pace given the skill gap in this matchup, something that only further dings my expectations for Reaves.
Skeptics could point to the potential for him to play both with the starting unit and with the reserves if this game is as big a blowout as expected.
However, he’s above that Payton Pritchard line when it comes to his impact on this team’s future, so I think he carries playing time risk if you think this game is as one-sided as the sportsbooks do — not to mention the minor elbow contusion that he is playing through in this Los Angeles’ penultimate game of the first half.
Reaves was great in January and his average PRA was a tick under 29 despite him averaging 35.6 minutes per game and shooting 37.6% from distance. I’m not overly worried about an RA total over his season average (10.4), and that means he’d have to run very hot on what figures to be a diminished scoring role.
It also shouldn’t be forgotten, he shot 4-17 in the game before his 45-point outing against the Pacers. He’s been doing a ton of damage thus far in February from his free throw opportunities that figure to dry up if he’s not asked to initiate the offense as much today as he has been up to this point.
Pick: Austin Reaves under 27.5 PRA (-108, FanDuel)
