We’ve got a full slate of action to evaluate today after the NBA took a backseat to The Big Game last night, and that’s great for us looking for value on the hardwood. Which of the marquee matchups have my eye the most?
I’m glad you asked.
NBA Picks for February 10
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic
The Magic have developed into an elite defense and their ability to chase the opposition off the 3-point line is a big part of it.
2023
- 42.5% of opponent shots were 3s (rank: 28th)
2024
- 38.2% of opponent shots were 3s (rank: 7th)
2025
- 37.8% of opponent shots have been 3s (rank: 1st)
Atlanta is just 4-12 this season in its 16 lowest 3-point rate games, a weakness that is likely to be only more glaring with De’Andre Hunter (39.3% 3’s on 50.2% of his shots) taking his talents to Cleveland at the trade deadline.
Jalen Suggs (quad) continues to miss time and is listed as doubtful, but the tandem of Anthony Black and Cole Anthony have been able to pick up some of the slack while this naturally adds usage to their two primary offensive options.
If the Hawks are going to battle in this game, they need to compete on the glass. Their season-long numbers are nearly identical in terms of rebound rate. But if you look at recent form, there’s less optimism to be had — 48.4% rebound percentage over their past 11 games (out-rebounded in seven of them).
Pick: Magic -5 (-112, DraftKings)
San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards
We are being asked to lay a big number for a team that has, checks notes, only played in single-point games since De’Aaron Fox joined the team. But I’m hanging tight with my optimism in the trajectory of this team.
In the three games with Fox in the mix, the Spurs are scoring 119.1 points per 100 possessions, a 5.5% increase from their first 47 games this season. The Wizards have hit that threshold just eight times this season, and that’s where my basis for giving the points in the matchup is based.
I don’t think Washington can score with a team like San Antonio.
De’Aaron Fox with the casual spin through two defenders fallaway finish while switching hands on the way down pic.twitter.com/ZmOg1yRb0i
— Hoops Digest™️ (@TheHoopsDigest) February 9, 2025
This season, the Wizards are 0-25 when allowing their opponent to get to that number, being outscored by an average of 19.3 points per game. Why can’t the Spurs replicate that level of success?
In their three games since the deal, there has been an outlier performance that has clipped their wings to some level — this is as good a spot as any for everything to come together. I’m not reading into the past as predictive
- Wednesday at Hawks: 43-point Q3 (under 30 points in the other three)
- Friday at Hornets: Spurs were -1 in 34 Wembanyama minutes (7-20 FG)
- Saturday at Magic: Fox and Wembanyama miss 14-of-22 shots (1-8 on 3s)
Have I lost money backing this team since the deal? I have and that makes me sad, but it doesn’t make me hesitant in backing this team. The pieces are in place, and I’m more encouraged by the Saturday loss in Orlando than anything as we saw Harrison Barnes and Devin Vassell excel (totals: 46 points, 18-22 FG, 10-14 3s) against a strong defense.
If this team can continue to score with this efficiency, an impressive run of success is coming — and I’m not just talking about outright wins, I’m talking covers.
As for the specifics to that cover, I expect Fox to thrive. He’s averaging 18.3 points per game as a Spur, well below the 25 he was pouring in a night with the Kings, but don’t mistake that for a lack of impact. His assist rate post-trade is up to 37.3% from 26.3% prior, a trend that I like to stick with for at least one more game and potentially longer as he gains comfort with this system.
The Wizards are as good a target for an assist prop as any — they allow dimes on the eighth-highest percentage of made buckets and are fouling less recently. Since New Year’s, their opponents are averaging 5.2% fewer free throw attempts per field goal attempt, a stat you might not naturally tie to opponent assists, but it very much is as there is no potential assist when points are scored at the stripe.
Pick: Spurs -11.5 (-105, DraftKings)
Pick: De’Aaron Fox 10+ assists (+290, DraftKings)
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers
All eyes will be in Los Angeles for Luka Dončić’s debut in a very soft landing spot against the 12-39 Jazz. Utah is playing its third road game in four days and are in the middle of a stretch that has this struggling team play five times in seven days heading into the All-Star Break.
The Jazz aren’t very good nor will they be very fresh, but I still plan to fade a Laker in this spot. Austin Reaves is coming off a career game and has proven to be a viable option in this league, but he’s going to have to settle into a new role with so much of the perimeter usage finding a new home starting tonight.
That’s not to say that he can’t produce or even that he won’t long-term, but priority No. 1 in the City of Angels is to make Dončić comfortable and to marry his array of skills with those of LeBron James.
The Mavs had Dončić and a high-usage co-star in Kyrie Irving — none of their teammates averaged more than 14.2 points or 3.7 assists. I believe asking Reaves to reach either of those numbers on any sort of regular basis is an uphill battle tonight, which means he’d have to post a high rebound total to come through on his PRA projection of 27.5.
The Jazz do very few things well, but they do clean the glass at the fourth-highest rate in the NBA. I also expect them to operate at a slower-than-normal pace given the skill gap in this matchup, something that only further dings my expectations for Reaves.
Skeptics could point to the potential for him to play both with the starting unit and with the reserves if this game is as big a blowout as expected.
However, he’s above that Payton Pritchard line when it comes to his impact on this team’s future, so I think he carries playing time risk if you think this game is as one-sided as the sportsbooks do (not to mention the minor elbow contusion that he is playing through in this Los Angeles’ penultimate game of the first half).
Reaves was great in January and his average PRA was a tick under 29 despite him averaging 35.6 minutes per game and shooting 37.6% from distance. I’m not overly worried about an RA total over his season average (10.4), and that means he’d have to run very hot on what figures to be a diminished scoring role.
It also shouldn’t be forgotten, he was 4-17 in the game before his 45-point outing against the Pacers. He’s been doing a ton of damage thus far in February from his free throw opportunities that figure to dry up if he’s not asked to initiate the offense as much today as he has been up to this point.
Pick: Austin Reaves under 27.5 PRA (-108, FanDuel)
