Super Bowl 59 is right around the corner as the Kansas City Chiefs attempt to complete the first-ever three-peat in the Super Bowl era while the Philadelphia Eagles have revenge on their mind from two seasons ago. For those looking to make some money during the biggest game of the year, we have you covered.
The PFSN Playoff Predictor Win Probability Metric gives the Eagles a 52.8% chance to win and the Chiefs a 47.2% chance. But what do our analysts think? Here are all our NFL betting picks, props, and MVP bets going into New Orleans.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 48.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles Picks and Predictions
PFSN Chief Stats & Insights Officer David Bearman
I’ve taken the Chiefs in every Super Bowl they’ve been in over the last six seasons and have gone 3-1, so why stop now? Hats off to the Eagles and their great season, but they haven’t won anything yet, unlike that team on the other side of the field.
The Chiefs may not have looked like world-beaters most of the season, but they end with the W anyhow. Top wide receiver tears his ACL. Star quarterback doesn’t have anywhere near his best season. Star tight end is M.I.A. most of the year. And what’s the end result? One loss (with a full roster) and another trip to the Super Bowl.
You can break the game down a thousand different ways, but I will repeat what I said in Las Vegas last year on Radio Row and in this column … the Chiefs have the better coach and the better QB. And it’s not even close in those two categories. That equals titles.
We saw it last year when Patrick Mahomes outplayed Brock Purdy and Andy Reid ran laps around Kyle Shanahan. You can toss 1,000 stats at me that might show the Eagles could be better, but I will respond with one stat and one stat only: The Chiefs have won 17 (!!!) consecutive one-score games, including an incomprehensible 12-0 this season. That’s coaching. That’s championship DNA. And that’s a three-peat (do I have to pay Pat Riley???).
Picks
Chiefs -1.5, Chiefs win by 1-6 (+250)
We are down to the final two teams, so there aren’t many weaknesses to exploit if they have made it this far. However, besides being the two best teams in football, they both have something else in common: They don’t cover the tight end very well.
The Chiefs allowed a league-high 8.7 yards per pass thrown to TEs this season, which is 19.2% worse than the league average; the Eagles have allowed touchdowns on 13.7% of passes thrown to TEs on the scoring half of the field (eighth-worst in football). What does this mean? Expect Dallas Goedert and Travis Kelce to be used often in this game as the two teams try to figure each other out.
Goedert trailed only the San Francisco 49ers’ George Kittle among TEs in yards per route this season, and we all know how good Kelce can be in the postseason, recording 14 consecutive postseason games with 70+ receiving yards until the AFC title game. That was double the longest streak ever. His 2,000 postseason receiving yards are only matched by one Jerry Rice.
As I noted in my MVP pick, the Eagles allowed Green Bay Packers TE Tucker Kraft and Washington Commanders TE Zach Ertz to catch the ball at will, so I am expecting Kelce to have a big game. And with the Chiefs near the bottom in most statistical categories in covering the TE, while having to also worry about A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley, and DeVonta Smith, Mr. Goedert will have his day as well.
Picks
Goedert o50.5 receiving yards, Kelce o63.5 receiving yards, and an SGP of both at Goedert 60+ with Kelce 70+ (+360).
PFSN Analyst Kyle Soppe
Some bets require more feel than numbers while others are a mix of the two. My favorite bets are neither — they are glorified math problems.
I could wax poetic about the pace of play and play-calling tendencies, but instead, I’m just going to drop the raw data on you.
- Chiefs: No more than 10 drives in 73.7% of their games this season
- Chiefs: Under 3.0 points per drive in 78.9% of their games this season
- Eagles: No more than 10 drives in 50% of their games this season
- Eagles: Under 3.0 points per drive in 70% of their games this season
- Super Bowls since 2000: Under 3.0 points per drive for 87.5% of offenses
These trends suggest that elite efficiency is unlikely and the sheer number of possessions isn’t going to overwhelm. Just under 12% of games this season have featured a non-offensive touchdown — if the math holds, neither team threatens the 30-point plateau, a complete 180 from the 38-35 contest that we were treated to in Super Bowl 57.
Pick
Neither team to score 30 points
The Eagles are in a lively position to win this ballgame, but if they do it, it’s unlikely to come in a high-flying sort of way. By today’s standards, they are a unique team that wins with the ground game and defense.
When they have the ball and elect to throw, are we sure the version of Brown from earlier in the playoffs isn’t going to be the version we see? This year, 90.7% of his targets have come on the perimeter, and Kansas City has locked down wide targets as well as anyone — allowing the sixth-fewest YAC, fourth-fewest YPA, and second-lowest CMP% on those passes this season.
In the AFC Championship, Josh Allen managed to pick up just 58 yards on 13 perimeter throws. He obviously doesn’t have the weapons that Jalen Hurts does, but he’s as creative out of the pocket as anyone and gives his receivers time to uncover … it didn’t happen.
The matchup projects as prohibitive and, as mentioned, the offensive structure isn’t exactly ideal for over bettors.
Hurts’ Percentage of Throws That Travel 15+ Yards by Season:
- 2021: 26.3%
- 2022: 20.7%
- 2023: 20.2%
- 2024: 18.6%
That will make this difficult to begin with from a volume perspective, but it only gets harder to project the deeper you dive. This season, the Chiefs ranked third in terms of percentage of yards gained on 25+ yard WR receptions coming after the reception (26.5%; league average: 34.7%).
Based on the trend above, it would seem that banking on the high-end volume down the field is unlikely, and Kansas City’s personnel doesn’t give much after the catch, something that coincides with a recent trend for Brown:
Brown’s Percentage of Deep Yards via YAC With the Eagles by Season:
- 2022: 25.1%
- 2023: 18.8%
- 2024: 18.1%
Sheer play volume is working against optimistic bettors in this regard as well; both the Eagles and Chiefs rank outside of the top 20 in terms of defensive plays per game. Both of these offenses are plenty comfortable sustaining long drives, and if that’s not the case for Philadelphia, it’s because Barkley is ending drives in short order.
Doesn’t hurt us.
Steve Spagnuolo also has our back.
Chiefs’ Pressure Rate When Not Blitzing, 2024:
- Weeks 1-14: 31.9% (15th in the NFL)
- Weeks 15-17: 40%
- Week 18: Rested regulars
- Playoffs: 39.7%
Hurts’ yards per pressured pass attempt are down 20.3% from last season, and his average depth of throw in those situations has dipped 11.9%. This number opened up at 24.5 yards and rose before midnight to 25.5 — I’m holding out a little bit longer to see if I can squeeze any more value out on this prop, but I don’t see a 25+ yard grab coming from Philly’s WR1.
Pick
A.J. Brown’s longest reception under 25.5 yards
The rookie has seen at least six targets in eight straight games and has seen his average depth of target trend down as his first season has progressed. That puts Xavier Worthy in a position to see volume that is encouraging and comes with significant upside given his physical skills.
The touchdown catch isn’t likely, but it doesn’t take much squinting to see how he could get there as a featured member of the leader in pass rate over expectation during the Mahomes era.
When it comes to the rushing side, things get a little more complicated. That said, we have seen him run in three scores this season, and 69.6% of his attempts this season have come on the scoring side of the field. We are giving Reid two weeks in a spot to make history — are we just supposed to believe that this beautiful mind isn’t going to be tempted to draw something up for a player with a rare trait?
For those thinking outside of the box, you likely noticed my note on his declining aDOT. What if a quick bubble screen is technically thrown backward and thus ruled a lateral? Not only could that be a rushing score, but it stands to bring the Eagles even closer to the line of scrimmage, thus increasing the chances for Worthy to get loose down the field.
Likely? No. But the ability to single-handedly make this a profitable Super Bowl is a price I’m willing to pay.
Pick
Yes (+3000) for Xavier Worthy To Run for and Catch a TD
We saw these teams play in a Super Bowl two years ago, and 73 points were put on the board. For me, that is a large reason why we are getting a discount on this price tag.
Points per Drive in 1st Quarters, 2024:
- Kansas City Chiefs: 1.77 (15th)
- Philadelphia Eagles: 1.67 (17th)
Points per Drive in Quarters 2-4, 2024:
- Chiefs: 2.46 (ninth)
- Eagles: 2.87 (fifth)
OK, so the offenses take a little time to get warmed up. Both of these offenses are capable of running the ball, even if done in very different ways. Philadelphia uses an imposing offensive line and the best running back in the sport to pile up yards in a traditional way while the Chiefs leverage the fear that Mahomes strikes in opponents.
But … both of these defenses are up to the challenge.
Defensive Rush Success Rate in 1st Quarters, 2024:
- Chiefs: 70.1% (second)
- Eagles: 66.7% (fifth)
Defensive Rush Success Rate in Quarters 2-4, 2024:
- Chiefs: 59% (23rd)
- Eagles: 61.5% (16th)
This game is going to see scoring chances, but a slow start is very much in the cards. Don’t rule out the idea that we could get maybe a seven-play drive from Kansas City that results in a punt and then a grinding drive from Philadelphia that nets points, but because of their style of play, extends into the second quarter.
That would work!
Pick
Yes (+950) on Scoreless First Quarter
The line for the jersey number of the first TD scorer is an over/under of 15.5 — understanding the rosters is the first and most important step in this bet that is offered at most books these days.
- No. 1 Xavier Worthy
- No. 1 Jalen Hurts
- No. 5 Hollywood Brown
- No. 6 DeVonta Smith
- No. 8 DeAndre Hopkins
- No. 10 Isiah Pacheco
- No. 11 A.J. Brown
- No. 15 Patrick Mahomes
- No. 26 Saquon Barkley
- No. 29 Kareem Hunt
- No. 87 Travis Kelce
- No. 88 Dallas Goedert
It’s not hard to see why the line was drawn where it was — you either get exposure to the receivers and quarterbacks or the running backs and tight ends.
My advice here? Bet on Barkley and/or Kelce to score if you want in the traditional first-touchdown markets. This gives you outs on the “over” for this bet at an enhanced price — bet the “under” here to hedge and give yourself a good shot.
First TD Betting Card
Barkley (+450 for one unit), Kelce (+950 for one unit), and “Under” (-110 for three units)
Pick
Under
PFSN Analyst Jason Katz
As the fastest man in the history of the NFL, it’s easy to view Worthy as a splash-play specialist. And he is. Worthy’s speed makes him liable to break off a big gain any time he touches the ball, but it requires a Herculean effort on his part to do it.
Worthy caught 59 passes this season. Two of them went for more than 21 yards. If we include his two playoff games, he’s caught 70 passes. Three of them went for more than 21 yards.
The Eagles have been adept at defending the deep ball. They were 30th this season in deep-ball completion percentage allowed.
Pick
Xavier Worthy longest reception under 21.5 yards
PFSN Analyst Mark Stolte
Hurts is 67-of-99 for 825 yards, eight touchdowns, and only one interception on plays where he gets blitzed this season. Even adding in the 15 sacks (13.2% sack rate), his efficiency is well above average against the blitz.
In crucial moments of many playoff games, the Chiefs’ defense has proven to blitz incredibly effectively. This isn’t the case for the entirety of the season. Opposing offenses are 106 of 169 for 1206 yards, 12 touchdowns, four interceptions, and 17 sacks (10.05% sack rate) when the Chiefs blitz.
Hurts averaged 193.53 passing yards per game this season, throwing for over 225 in six of them. The Chiefs defense ranks fourth this season in the number of explosive rushes (10+ yards) given up at just 2.5 per game. They also rank 12th in expected points added (EPA) per play in likely rush situations while also ranking eighth in defensive rushing success rate on first and second downs.
With a defense that is primed to do well (relatively) against Barkley, we need to find out how the Eagles attack a defense when they can’t get the run going. To do this, we will break it up into two situations: What the Eagles do when their run game is below league average and below their own average.
On drives where they average lower than 4.4 yards per carry (league average), the Eagles pass 2.91% more over expectation and average about a yard more per drive. This jumps to 3.17% more over expectation and 22.3 more yards per drive in situations where they are below their typical average of 4.9 yards per carry.
The Chiefs blitz the ninth-most in the league, are great against the run, and aren’t very successful this season when blitzing. The Eagles’ pass game is more efficient and throw at a higher volume when their run game isn’t working. At +123, Hurts has an implied probability of 44.84% to reach 225 or more passing yards.
Pick
Jalen Hurts 225+ Passing Yards (+123)
PFSN Senior Product Director Ben Rolfe
The sportsbooks installed the Chiefs as immediate favorites with odds of -125, which haven’t moved much if at all since the game against the Buffalo Bills finished. That is an implied win probability of 55.6% for Kansas City, which is somewhat surprising, but the numbers have this game close enough that it’s hard to argue with whichever side the sportsbooks favored.
From an overall perspective, our PR+ metric has the Eagles as the better team, but only slightly. Both teams rank inside our top five, and there is just 1.1 percentage point between them in our system.
Therefore, barring some meltdown, it’s unlikely we will see a one-sided affair. This game will come down to how the different coaching staffs scheme up their plays and how the players execute them.
Diving into the overall matchups, the battle between the Eagles’ offense and the Chiefs’ defense looks to be extremely even on paper, with both units sitting 14th in their respective rankings.
Philadelphia’s offense is somewhat of a throwback unit. In a time when passing games dominate, the Eagles have controlled games on the ground, with explosive runs from both running back Barkley and quarterback Hurts.
The Eagles enter the Super Bowl with an impressive 0.1 EPA per rush (first) and a 42% success rate on run plays (eighth). The Chiefs’ relative strength on defense in terms of statistics is against the run, but those numbers are very much league average. Kansas City finished with a 17th-ranked defense in run success rate (61.3%) and a 13th-ranked defense in EPA per rush (0.07).
We saw the Chiefs’ frailties against the run show up at times against Buffalo, with James Cook ripping off some big plays in the second half. However, we also saw them look stout in short-yardage situations, which will be critical against the Eagles’ “Tush Push.”
A slight unknown for the Eagles is the health of Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson, but hopefully, two weeks of rest can have them healthy and raring to go.
Philadelphia’s passing offense has been somewhat hit or miss this season. They finished ninth in EPA per dropback (0.12) and 13th in success rate (46.2%) — and there were definitely some frailties there.
Hurts finished fourth overall in our QB+ rankings this season. He was excellent from a clean pocket, on third downs, and in clutch situations, yet finished 26th in EPA per dropback when pressured (-0.42).
The Chiefs have one of the more creative defensive coordinators in Spagnuolo, so they will surely look to take advantage of Hurts’ issues when pressured. They also have good options in their defensive backfield, but we saw they can be vulnerable down the field in the AFC Championship Game.
The Chiefs and Spagnuolo will need to “pick their poison,” so to speak. Hurts and the passing game are more than capable of making plays when needed, but consistency has sometimes been an issue on that front. Equally, the pressure element in the passing game is dangerous for Kansas City, with Philadelphia having dynamic playmakers that can make them pay if Hurts gets the ball out quickly to beat the pressure.
The matchup when the Chiefs are on offense looks one-sided. The Eagles’ defense ranks second, while K.C.’s offense ranks 14th. Philadelphia’s defense has excellent numbers against both the run and the pass — ranked first in EPA per rush (0.16) and sixth in rush success rate (63.7%). The defense is also first in pass success rate (59.9%) and third in EPA per dropback (0.02).
The Chiefs’ offense has evolved throughout the year. They appeared to be a run-dominated team earlier on, but they head into the Super Bowl ranked better in the passing game. Hollywood Brown’s return has added an extra dimension by giving them an extra dynamic weapon teams have to account for.
Kansas City finished the year ranked fifth in pass success rate (49.6%) and eighth in EPA per dropback (0.13). The run game ranks just outside the top 10 at this point but is still more than good enough, especially with Mahomes willing to use his legs more in the playoffs than in the regular season.
We’ve seen how dangerous Mahomes can be if he gets outside the pocket in the last two weeks. Philly’s defensive line will have to show incredible pass-rush integrity to keep him contained, or they will have to use one of their linebackers to spy Mahomes.
At times, the Eagles looked vulnerable against Commanders QB Jayden Daniels when he ran, so they’ll need to work on that heading into New Orleans.
The Chiefs’ offensive line will be key. Overall, it has ranked in the top five this season, but there is a major concern at left tackle, which has caused an issue at left guard. The Eagles’ defensive line is dominant up the middle, so it will be intriguing to see if K.C. moves Joe Thuney back inside or leaves Mike Caliendo at guard with Thuney at LT.
This is the Chiefs’ pick-your-poison decision. They seem to like having Thuney at left tackle over D.J. Humphries, but that leaves Caliendo dealing with Jalen Carter, Milton Williams, and Jordan Davis. Philadelphia will almost certainly try and exploit either Caliendo or Humphries, so Kansas City has to decide which it feels is the least dangerous option.
This Chiefs offense was much improved against the Bills in the red zone. They scored four touchdowns inside the red zone compared to just one field goal. That is contrary to their 53.9% red-zone touchdown rate this season. Now, they face an Eagles defense that ranks fifth in the league in restricting touchdowns inside the red zone (48.3%).
A final element that should not be forgotten is special teams. The Chiefs have an advantage on that front, with a 0.07 EPA per game compared to -1.31 for the Eagles.
Philly’s Jake Elliott only made 77.8% of his field-goal attempts in the regular season and really struggled from over 50 yards, going 1-for-7. He is 6-for-7 in the playoffs, with his only miss coming in the NFC Championship Game from 54 yards out.
Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has been far from perfect, with an 84% conversion rate and three misses from five attempts over 50 yards. He is 4-for-4 in the playoffs but hasn’t had an attempt from over 50 yards.
All the metrics indicate this game should be close. However, our overall numbers have this game leaning in the Eagles’ favor. The problem is that the Chiefs have the coaching advantage, and it’s hard to pick against Mahomes in big moments.
This is a true 50-50 game, so there are a few ways we can attack it. The numbers say the Eagles should be favored, so the lean is to their moneyline, especially getting plus odds. You can also tease Philadelphia up to +7.5, which is a nice cushion against a Chiefs team that has won 12 games by seven points or less.
To tease that line you need a partner for it, which brings us to the total. At 49.5, it feels on the high side, but this game certainly has the potential to get out of control. Therefore, the play here is to tease the total down to 43.5. It leaves you vulnerable to a 20-17 or 23-20 type game, but this one has the feeling of getting loose in the second half.
Prediction
Eagles 27, Chiefs 24
Pick
Eagles +7.5 and over 43.5; Lean Eagles ML
Super Bowl 59 MVP Picks
Bearman
It’s easy to take Mahomes if you think the Chiefs’ three-peat is inevitable like I do. He’s won it all three times they have, and a QB has won the award 17 times over the last 26 Super Bowls. But you don’t need me telling you Mahomes is a safe play. So instead of Mahomes, we will pick one of his weapons.
Kelce has been Mr. Consistency over the years, especially in the postseason, where he had an NFL record 14 consecutive postseason games with 70 receiving yards coming to an end versus the Bills in the AFC title game.
Both these teams have the same weakness, and it’s covering tight ends. During Wild Card Weekend, Kraft had five catches against the Eagles. In the Divisional Round matchup, Tyler Higbee had seven grabs and a TD and we saw Ertz all over the place for the Commanders in the NFC title game, with 11 receptions and over 100 yards.
This should be a tight game, and when push comes to shove, Mahomes will go to ol’ reliable. If Kelce gets two TDs or a TD, over 100 yards and a key play, his +1500 is more than live.
Pick
Travis Kelce +1500
Rolfe
Our metrics at PFSN have the Eagles as slight favorites, so this boils down to either Hurts or Barkley.
Barkley has the lower odds, but it has been more than 25 years since a running back won the award. Therefore, I am delighted to take the extra value with Hurts, who has more routes to the MVP than Barkley.
Hurts should be fully healthy, and he ranked fourth in our quarterback rankings this season. He has scored 18 rushing touchdowns in 20 games this season, including three last time out against the Commanders.
With all eyes on Barkley in the run game, Hurts is explosive enough to be the one who makes the big plays and takes the glory from his backfield mate.
Pick
Jalen Hurts +300
Soppe
Years ago, there was value in betting the favored QB to win the MVP instead of simply betting his team to win the game, but with the industry sharpening, that path isn’t nearly as advantageous these days (Chiefs: -125).
In that vein, I’m going to pass on Mahomes. This team is as capable of winning without their future Hall of Famer as ever, opening the door for Kelce (+1500) to put a cap on this season (and his career?) with a vintage performance.
We’ve seen a few instances where an off-the-board player takes home the hardware. How did Cooper Kupp win MVP? Julian Edelman? Heck, how did Andre Iguodala get it over Stephen Curry? Volume and timing.
Edelman garnered a 41.4% target share in a low-scoring game while Kupp and Iguodala both made iconic plays late to swing the outcome. Why can’t Kelce do that?
We know he has a flair for the dramatic and that Mahomes looks his way when the game is on the line, so let’s dive into the volume portion.
This award requires impressive counting numbers in addition to tremendous impact — in Kelce’s five best fantasy football games since the beginning of last season, he has accounted for 43.7% of Kansas City’s receiving yards. He’s not winning this award if Mahomes throws for 400 yards — we’ve seen him put up big numbers in the past without his QB posting video game stats, and that is his path to getting there.
By betting on Kelce, I not only get access to the favored team but I also stand to benefit if Reid’s beautiful mind gets creative. Who is to say that Kelce isn’t used for a QB sneak? Or maybe he is schemed up a creative route that ends up in a backward pass for a touchdown, thus giving him a score that Mahomes doesn’t get credit for? How about a last-second pitch that results in the game-winning score?
None of these things, of course, are likely, but with history on the line, any key Chief play will be amplified, and Kelce figures to be in the middle of everything. Mahomes is the percentage pick, but I’ll take the chalk in other markets — this is a prop that can be subjective at times and the story-plus-production path is worth a nibble at these odds.
Pick
Travis Kelce +1500
PFSN Analyst Sterling Xie
Mahomes is the safe bet if you subscribe to the Chiefs’ inevitability. And while picking Mahomes for MVP in lieu of the Chiefs’ moneyline is sound logic, it’s worth considering how things could unfold if Mahomes is less than superhuman in a Kansas City win.
In the Chiefs’ 17 wins this season, Mahomes has averaged negative EPA per dropback six times and failed to pass for multiple touchdowns 10 times. We all know “Playoff Patrick” is a different beast, but it’s far beyond the realm of possibility for the Chiefs to win with Mahomes not recording a gaudy stat line or delivering late-game heroics.
Indeed, the Eagles rank second in our Defense+ metric and appear well-equipped on paper to contain Kansas City’s offensive production. Philly ranks fifth in non-blitz pressure rate, a key for any defense to have a prayer against Mahomes. They also allow the fifth-lowest red-zone touchdown rate and have the highest pass-defense success rate, both ingredients to suppress Mahomes’ touchdown and yardage totals.
If the Chiefs are in a low-scoring game, could that open the door for a defensive MVP? It’s less rare than you think — 10 defenders have won Super Bowl MVP, though Von Miller (2015 season) was the most recent instance. To win, you typically need a signature moment — think Miller’s strip-sack of Cam Newton that led to a TD or Malcolm Smith’s pick-six two years earlier off Peyton Manning.
No defender in this game is more likely to deliver a splash moment than Chris Jones. The All-Pro has a knack for turning it on in the clutch. Since 2019 (when pressure stats are available in TruMedia), Jones has had a 14.5% pressure rate overall. But in the fourth quarter with the game within one score, that ratchets up to 17.2%. That ranks first among all defensive tackles in that span, and his 11.5 sacks in that situation also lead all DTs (and rank fourth overall).
Jones could face a banged-up Eagles interior line, with both Dickerson and Jurgens playing through apparent injuries. Remember, it’s the Chiefs who are inevitable, not just Mahomes. At 55-to-1 odds for the best pass-rushing defensive tackle in the NFL, why can’t this year’s title-clinching play for the Chiefs come from their defense?
Pick
Chris Jones +5500
Katz
Since 1999, the Super Bowl MVP has gone to a quarterback 17 times. Since 2017, Julian Edelman and Cooper Kupp are the only non-QBs to win the award. With that said, if the Eagles do win the game, there’s a solid chance the award goes to Barkley.
Given that their odds to win the game are +105 and Barkley’s MVP odds are +250, there’s solid value if you believe the Eagles will win. However, if there’s one thing I’ve learned from the past few years, it’s to never bet against Mahomes.
The Chiefs in the Mahomes Era are 3-1 in Super Bowls. In each of those victories, Mahomes has gotten the MVP award. It’s really hard to fathom a scenario where the Chiefs win this game and Mahomes isn’t the MVP. It would likely involve an incredible defensive effort from someone like Jones.
Not only is Mahomes the best quarterback of all time in my eyes, but he’s had that title, for me, since 2020. The odds may be short, but betting Mahomes to win MVP at +110 is basically getting the Chiefs ML at +110. That’s not bad value, given they are -125 to win.
Pick
Patrick Mahomes +110
