Saquon Barkley is set to appear in his first Super Bowl and is one of the most popular players in the NFL betting prop markets that have gained steam around the final game of the NFL season. Investigating these specialty markets can be a challenge, but if done correctly, they can be quite profitable.
Whether you want to link some of these bets together in a correlated same-game parlay or play them individually, here is where I stand as we prepare for the biggest game of the season!
Saquon Barkley Super Bowl Betting Props
Rushing Yards: Over/Under 112.5
We haven’t seen a running back clear this number in a Super Bowl since Dominic Rhodes soared past it with 113 in a 2006 win over the Chicago Bears — the game was a little different back then as his opposing number (Thomas Jones) also had a big day (15 carries for 112 yards).
Momma- there goes that man!
No one broke loose more than Saquon Barkley this year 🔥
Will the Chiefs be able to keep him in check? pic.twitter.com/7MCIzuSzzW
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) February 5, 2025
That’s not the world we live in today, but Barkley is the exception to seemingly every rule. Given how this Philadelphia Eagles offense operates, he’s essentially script-proof, and in a similar way to Barry Sanders, he is one cut away from a game-changing play.
I can’t do it — in either direction.
Fading Barkley is a tough pill to swallow given his form and single-play ability, but this number is also too high to statistically support an over. Those big plays make for great highlights, and he’s as good as anyone at producing them, but I think the past month or so has skewed our perception of what is projectable.
The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed just one 35+ yard run this season. Heck, they haven’t allowed a 20+ yard rush in the majority of games this season. Barkley is elite at ripping off those plays, but when he doesn’t, eight players were more efficient this season.
Yards per Carry When Not Gaining 35+ Yards in a Game, 2024:
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 5.1
- Jordan Mason: 4.9
- Bucky Irving: 4.8
- Derrick Henry: 4.7
- Tyler Allgeier: 4.7
- Bijan Robinson: 4.7
- Rico Dowdle: 4.6
- Chuba Hubbard: 4.5
- Barkley: 4.5
That’s still a good grade, but it’s not exactly the elite rate you’re looking for. If I’m backing Barkley, it would be for Super Bowl MVP honors, thinking that the impact of his performance could still be felt even if the stats aren’t as eye-popping as what we’ve seen recently.
Pick: PASS
Receptions: Over/Under 2.5; Receiving Yards: Over/Under 13.5
As good as Barkley has been, you’d really be going out on a limb to back him as a pass catcher. The Eagles have grounded their passing attack in terms of aDOT, and that should increase the equity here, but it simply hasn’t.
In six of his past seven games, Barkley hasn’t even seen three targets let alone hauled in three passes. If this game is going according to their script, the Eagles will regularly put the ball in Barkley’s stomach. If not, they are in catchup mode to some degree, a role that favors the playmaking receivers over their star running back.
Pick: Under 2.5 receptions
Anytime Touchdown (-195)
Barkley has at least four red-zone touches in four of his past five games, scoring multiple times in three of those contests. We know that Jalen Hurts handles the Tush Push carries, and that can be a stressful situation, but Barkley’s role puts him in a position to find paydirt from a projection standpoint.
Barkley’s Rush TD Rates by Distance, 2024:
- 1-yard line: 0-of-14
- Otherwise: 18-of-25
The Chiefs rank in the middle third of the league in red-zone defense, and that’s not going to cut it against a running back who has a chance to conclude one of the most impactful skill position seasons in recent memory.
Pick: PASS (or tag onto a SGP to satisfy a leg requirement)
