Kareem Hunt is now a featured option on the Super Bowl favorites and is a popular player in the NFL betting prop markets that have gained steam around the final game of the NFL season. Investigating these specialty markets can be a challenge, but if done correctly, they can be quite profitable.
Whether you want to link some of these bets together in a correlated same-game parlay or play them individually, here is where I stand as we prepare for the biggest game of the season!
Kareem Hunt Super Bowl Betting Props
Rushing Yards: Over/Under 44.5
This bet comes down to volume and volume alone. I’m confident that the Kansas City Chiefs will want Patrick Mahomes to decide this game and even more confident in the trajectory of this Philadelphia Eagles defense (second in PFSN’s Defense+ metric). When evaluating the season as a whole, Philly is the seventh-best defense at limiting yardage per carry before contact to running backs, but that only tells half the story.
Since the midway point of the regular season, they improved an already above-average rate by 55.4%. Over that run, the average running back is picking up just 0.78 yards before getting hit, a rate far better than the NFL average (1.36).
If Hunt can finish this game in the 12+ carry range he has a chance to cash “over” tickets — the problem is that he’s only gotten there twice since Thanksgiving. I’d lean the under in this prop because I’ve picked the Eagles to win and thus have Kansas City ramping up the pass rate a bit, but if you believe that we see a three-peat, there’s a volume case to be made to go the other direction.
Pick: PASS
The Chiefs running GT Counter Read Bluff for two touchdowns against the Bills.
On the first score, the defensive end stays put, and so Mahomes hands the ball to Kareem Hunt.
On the second, the defensive end crashes down, and so Mahomes keeps it and runs it in himself. pic.twitter.com/S7vqwZQaOK
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) February 4, 2025
Receptions: Over/Under 1.5; Receiving Yards: Over/Under 6.5
Hunt hasn’t been overly involved in the passing game, as he and Isiah Pacheco are splitting a marginal role in that regard (six total targets over their past three games). In theory, Philadelphia’s ability to create pressure should be a positive for Hunt, but because they can do so without bringing an extra rusher, I fear that the Kansas City running backs’ limited participation in the passing game is here to stay.
I know that most people enjoy betting overs — if I had to pick one of these props to take an optimistic view on, it would be the yards (7.7 yards per catch this season and 8.3 for his career, giving a single grab the potential to cash), but I’ll be siding with a continued focus on Travis Kelce in the shorter passing game (-1.6-yard aDOT for Hunt this season, a career-low) in a contest that might not see Mahomes throw 35 passes.
Pick: Under 1.5 receptions
Anytime Touchdown (+140)
Hunt has multiple red-zone touches in each of his past three games and 49 across 13 contests with the Chiefs while Pacheco has just a single look inside the 20-yard line since the beginning of December.
I’m far more comfortable in projecting where the scoring opportunities are going in this backfield than the exact touch distribution that will present itself. Kansas City’s close-game rush rate is 43.8% in first quarters this season compared to 30.5% in second quarters, giving me a little more confidence in Hunt as the first Chief to score a touchdown at +425.
Pick: YES
