This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.
What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistically backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.
If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.
You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
Super Bowl 59 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI
I bet Jalen Hurts’ under on 31.5 rushing yards during the Championship Round and was awfully lucky to cash that ticket — he looked healthy. If not for his longest run coming off the board due to a holding call that may or may not have really made much of a difference, I don’t hit on that.
I’m assuming that he’s a full go, and while he had the fumble that most remember from the last time these teams linked up in the postseason, he also joined Terrell Davis as the only players with three rushing scores in a Super Bowl, so it’s not as if his fantasy managers were left wanting more.
Hurts has multiple passing scores or a 71% completion rate in each of his past five healthy games — the passing volume may not be where you want it, but he’s been pretty effective when his number is called.
I worry that the win over the Commanders, however, provides people with a false sense of security. He survived a Saquon Barkley hat trick with one of his own, but this game is awfully unlikely to unfold similarly.
The Chiefs have been a top-10 red-zone defense in consecutive seasons, and they did well for themselves against the unstoppable force that Josh Allen appears to be at times. That’s not to say that I’m out on Hurts — I’m not at all — but there is a downside that needs to be accounted for, a downside that wasn’t an issue against Washington.
On a per-dollar basis, I prefer Hurts to Mahomes in DFS and feel better about him in the prop betting markets — we know what the Eagles want to do, it’s just a matter of if you think they can get it done.
I’m not sold, but I think Hurts’ value is independent of the outcome.
Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC
This Patrick Mahomes thing really is interesting. He burst onto the scene in 2018 with a 50-touchdown-pass season (16 games) and was anointed fantasy’s best QB for years to come. He, largely, lived up to that reputation for half a decade but now is being asked to do different things — that has the community confused as to what to do.
On one hand, he has just 46 touchdown passes over his past 31 games and is more than two months removed from the last time he threw for multiple scores in consecutive games.
On the other hand, “Postseason Mahomes” is in full effect in terms of his (and Andy Reid’s) aggression on the ground. During his career, Mahomes has averaged 3.9 carries for 20 yards and 0.13 touchdowns on the ground during the regular season. In the postseason, those rates elevate to 5.4 attempts, 29.1 yards, and 0.35 touchdowns per game.
These days, rushing production is the lifeblood of the QB position, so why are we so quick to dismiss him as an elite option?
When it comes to his 2025 value, we can sit down and have a real discussion as to where he belongs. Since Week 5, Mahomes ranks second in pass attempts (511, even including the playoffs; Joe Burrow still has more) — 33 QBs have more deep TD passes over that stretch (including Cooper Rush, Daniel Jones, and Michael Penix Jr.).
If he’s not going to stretch the field and the impact of the rushing numbers is muted, we really need to be thoughtful in how we rank him. But for one game? A legacy spot with two weeks to get healthy and to spend time in the play-calling lab with Reid?
Fading Mahomes is a move I’m not willing to do. I won’t go overboard, but this run game isn’t exactly thriving (Mahomes is the only Chief with a run gaining more than 12 yards), and there are all sorts of outs when it comes to the passing game given the trajectories of Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce.
Oh yeah, and then two veteran receivers in DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster are plenty capable of turning back the clock on occasion. The tricky part in rostering Mahomes is how to build a correlated lineup with him.
At the core of things, you have one of two options — you either roster Mahomes WITH Saquon Barkley, thinking that the Eagles take a lead and force Mahomes to wear the cape or you roster him WITHOUT Barkley, with the idea being that the Eagles are forced off of their projected script thanks to a successful first few drives that feature Mahomes in a big way.
I lean toward the latter, if for no other reason than it allows you to differentiate yourself. If you want to venture into the betting markets, betting on the Chiefs’ first-half total is very much an option. The line opened at 12.5; as long as it stays under 13.5, history is on your side. Over the past three postseasons …
- 2022 DIV vs. Jaguars: 17 first-half points
- 2022 AFCCG vs. Bengals: 13
- 2022 SB vs. Eagles: 14
- 2023 WC vs. Dolphins: 16
- 2023 DIV at Bills: 13
- 2023 AFCCG at Ravens: 17
- 2023 SB vs. 49ers: 3
- 2024 DIV vs. Texans: 13
- 2024 AFCCG vs. Bills: 21
Super Bowl 59 Fantasy Football Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC
Isiah Pacheco continues to get early work in these games and even got a touch inside the five-yard line during the first half against the Bills, but if you’re playing him (or any overs attached to him), you’re betting on the past more than the present.
Could that pay off? Sure. In a one-game sample where maybe the greatest offensive mind of this generation is given time to prepare, almost nothing would surprise me, but in terms of looking at what the Chiefs have shown us over the past month-plus, there’s little to like in this profile.
The Jameis Winston era was fun in Cleveland, right? That was the last time Pacheco got more than 10 touches in a game; even if you’re willing to overlook the volume concerns, the carry production simply hasn’t been there.
- 2023: 9.8% of carries gained 10+ yards
- 2024: 4.3% of carries have gained 10+ yards
If you, like me, want to hold onto your Pacheco stock, that’s fine — buy low on him in 2025 drafts. Other than wanting to be different for the sake of being different (by the way, that’s more viable this week than most), there’s little reason to consider going in this direction.
Kareem Hunt, RB | KC
I’ve been hesitant to label Kareem Hunt as “the guy” in Kansas City’s backfield, but even me, a 90th percentile person on planet Earth in terms of stubbornness, has to bend the knee at some point.
Hunt has rushed for a score in four straight and, after a Pacheco run to start things off, handled the next three carries last week, one of which resulted in a TD.
Chiefs RB snap rates, Hunt vs. Pacheco 2024:
- Week 13: Hunt leads 40.3% to 32.8%
- Week 14: Pacheco leads 47.7% to 30.8%
- Week 15: Tied at 37.3%
- Week 16: Hunt leads 45.7% to 32.9%
- Week 17: Hunt leads 48.3% to 34.5%
- Divisional Round: Hunt leads 48% to 30%
- Conference Championship: Hunt leads 55.6% to 30.2%
In essence, he is what I wanted Pacheco to be all season long — a hard-nosed running back benefiting from the surrounding environment. Hunt has averaged over 3.3 yards per carry after first contact in both playoff games, and while this matchup isn’t optimal (first in rush EPA), the value that comes with both the lead and goal-line role in a Mahomes-led offense is impossible to overlook.
I’m not thrilled with his usage as a pass catcher (two targets on 41 routes over his past three games) and that will cap my optimism, but given his price point, if you think the Chiefs win, he’s a solid option in the DFS streets.
Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI
What more is there to say about this man?
We could be looking at one of the greatest seasons by a skill-position player in the history of the sport should he come through when the lights are the brightest, and there is no reason to think he won’t.
The Eagles are the team with the highest rush rate over expectation in the NFL, and Saquon Barkley has leveraged that play-calling to a cool 442 yards and five scores on 66 carries this postseason. The production floor is what makes paying up a viable DFS strategy (115+ rush yards in five straight), though the fact that he has cleared 10 receiving yards just once since Thanksgiving is a touch concerning if you think the Chiefs throw the first punch.
From a roster construction standpoint, it’s tough. Sliding Barkley in as your Captain is obviously cost-prohibitive and backs you into a corner, given his projected popularity — you are going to have to be very confident in your punt plays to top the field, should he produce as expected.
Personally, I find that my edge is more in the middle tier of players, and I encourage you to play to your strengths. If you feel you have a good beat on kicker projections or WR4 upside, plug in Barkley and hope to run hot in that regard. That’s not how I best operate, so I’m going to be underweight on the field, though it won’t be a full fade … I’m not a crazy person.
Betting Barkley’s unders right now is a step most aren’t willing to take, and I get it. That said, the numbers are reflective of his expectations and make it tough to bet his overs. If I were going to go in this direction, I’d still take the scrimmage yards total over the raw rushing one, understanding that we could see more creativity in his usage with an extra week to prepare while also guarding against any game script concerns.
Super Bowl 59 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown, WR | PHI
The Eagles have every shot to win this ballgame, but if they do it, it’s unlikely to come in a high-flying sort of way — they are a unique team by today’s standards that wins with the ground game and defense.
When they have the ball and elect to throw, are we sure that the A.J. Brown from earlier in the playoffs isn’t going to be the version we see? This year, 90.7% of his targets have come on the perimeter. Kansas City has locked down wide targets as well as anyone (sixth-fewest YAC, fourth-fewest YPA, and second-lowest CMP% on those passes this season).
In the AFC Championship, Josh Allen picked up just 58 yards on 13 perimeter throws. He obviously doesn’t have the weapons that Jalen Hurts does, but he’s as creative out of the pocket as anyone and gives his receivers time to uncover … it didn’t happen.
The matchup projects as prohibitive and, as mentioned, the offensive structure isn’t exactly ideal for over bettors.
Hurts’ percentage of throws that travel 15+ yards:
- 2021: 26.3%
- 2022: 20.7%
- 2023: 20.2%
- 2024: 18.6%
That’s going to make this difficult to begin with from a volume perspective, but it only gets harder to project the deeper you dive. This season, the Chiefs ranked third in terms of percentage of yards gained on 25+ yard WR receptions that came after the catch (26.5%; league average: 34.7%).
Based on the trend above, it would seem that banking on the high-end volume down the field is unlikely, and Kansas City’s personnel don’t give much after the catch, something that coincides with a recent trend for Brown:
Brown’s percentage of deep yards that come as YAC with the Eagles:
- 2022: 25.1%
- 2023: 18.8%
- 2024: 18.1%
That is the rationale behind me betting Brown’s longest catch this week to be under 25.5 yards; if I’m right on that front, it’s going to be an uphill battle to return value without a multi-TD effort.
At the end of the day, the limited volume projections through the air for Philadelphia are enough to back me off of spending top dollar on their WR1 — I don’t think he has a very clear path to repeating his 6-96-1 line from the NFC Championship.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC
And then there was one.
Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, and Mike Williams were all acquired near the NFL trade deadline by a playoff team with the hope, theoretically, being that they’d help add a dimension to the offense and thus put them over the top.
None of those moves yielded much fruit.
DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t either, but at least he has one game left, right?
Chiefs WRs snap shares, 2024 Conference Championship:
- Xavier Worthy: 82.5% (Divisional Round: 80%)
- Hollywood Brown: 66.7% (Divisional Round: 64%)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 58.7% (Divisional Round:42%)
- Hopkins: 17.5% (Divisional Round: 30%)
He’s got a great résumé, and over a 60-minute stretch, he may make a big play or two. However, if you’re going in his direction, you’re doing it based more on vibes than anything tangible.
Week 15 was the last time Hopkins reached even seven expected PPR points, something that is less likely to change this week than others because of the potential for this game to be one with limited possessions.
Since joining the Chiefs, 14.5% of his targets have come in the end zone … that’s your one out, and it’s even thinner this week than most (opponents are 0-of-5 when throwing to the end zone this postseason against the Eagles).
There’s a chance a receiver behind Brown and Worthy works his way into the optimal DFS lineup this week, but you’re taking fliers rather than betting on trends to get there (he has a sub-20-yard projection across the betting industry).
DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI
This game of ours rewards those who evolve, and it shouldn’t be shocking that the two teams remaining excel at doing just that.
DeVonta Smith and Xavier Worthy are both skinny receivers with a play-making profile that is generally pigeonholed by the public as burners. They are often placed in the box of straight-line runners who require attention over the top.
That’s not wrong, but it’s also not unique. One-dimensional players get shut down by good defenses and coaches who are unwilling to adjust are — well, they aren’t coaching this time of year. Instead of collectively banging their heads against the wall, the Eagles have sought to get the ball in Smith’s hands in a different way.
He’s caught all 12 of his targets this postseason thanks to a 4.8-yard aDOT (52% lower than his rate from the regular season and 59% below his career rate), a trend that I’m interested in given how the Chiefs have struggled some against YAC threats in conservative offenses (Jalen Hurts’ aDOT is 20.5% after the first 10 weeks).
From a matchup point of view, we have an interesting spot, one that could suggest paying down for Smith over A.J. Brown to get exposure to this passing game, something those who think the Chiefs will three-peat will want to do.
Target rate when the defense blitzes:
- A.J. Brown: 30.6% (targets/routes)
- DeVonta Smith: 22.6%
Target rate when the defense doesn’t blitz:
- Brown: 25.6% (targets/routes)
- Smith: 22.3%
As you can see, Smith’s target rate is largely unaffected by the opponent’s aggression while Brown’s dips. That blitzed rate is why Brown is priced 29.7% ahead of Smith — which is a mistake.
Or at least it might be.
From a process standpoint, I think we are getting a discount. During the regular season, the Chiefs created pressure on just 18.6% of opponent dropbacks when not blitzing (24th, behind the defense-is-optional Bengals), but their defensive line has seemingly learned from Travis Kelce when it comes to saving your best for last, resulting in them heating up QBs on 40% of non-blitzed dropbacks this postseason.
At cost, I prefer Smith to Brown for that reason — his ability to give us what we expect is greater than the odds of Brown doing so if Kansas City elects to leverage its recent success up front and sit back in coverage.
Hollywood Brown, WR | KC
Hollywood Brown was targeted on Kansas City’s first two plays against Buffalo and seemed poised for a true WR1 performance for the Chiefs.
No dice.
He caught both of those targets (20 yards); he managed just one catch on three targets (15 yards) for the rest of the game. The early, quick looks were great to see, but a 20.0 aDOT after that was concerning in an offense that continues to get more conservative.
That said, he’s been targeted on 22 of his 82 routes since making his Chiefs debut in Week 16, and that is the driving factor behind him being my favorite value among Kansas City’s receivers (32.5% discount on DraftKings from Xavier Worthy).
When discussing Worthy, I go into detail about his usage patterns and why I think he’s a tough sell at this price point in this matchup — if you buy my case there, Brown’s path to paying off in a big way becomes clearer.
This is a versatile offense that can mine production from anywhere, but at cost, I think Brown is a live option in DFS and in ladder situations across the betting markets. This season, a player has reached 90 receiving yards six times (five different players) against Philadelphia, and they are all refined route runners who know how to open up passing windows:
- Jayden Reed, Week 1: 138 receiving yards
- Puka Nacua, Week 12: 117
- Zach Ertz, NFC Championship: 104
- Adam Thielen, Week 14: 102
- Nacua, Divisional Round: 97
- Mike Evans, Week 4: 94
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC
JuJu Smith-Schuster is a great example of why the Chiefs have been able to build this dynasty — the second you rule out a player on their roster, Kansas City puts him in a position to make an impact.
Smith-Schuster was far from featured, but he hurt the Bills for 60 yards in the AFC Championship Game, and that matters. That sort of production at his DFS price tag is not only viable in terms of his point-per-dollar bottom line but in what it allows you to do elsewhere.
Settle down.
Before that Buffalo game, the slot receiver had 70 yards since Thanksgiving. Smith-Schuster was able to attack a Bills defense that funnels opponents to the middle of the field and made two big plays as a result.
That was great to see, but asking him to offer something similar this weekend is something I’m not willing to do. He averaged 20 yards per target in that victory, a production rate that was just a little different from his previous five games (29 yards on nine targets, 3.2 per).
Even after considering the price tag, Smith-Schuster grades as my sixth most valuable option and that’s not going to make it into my DFS player pool. I’m more likely to bet under his receiving yardage total (I prefer that path to the reception prop, as it’s more of a bet on Philadelphia’s defense than one against Reid’s playcalling).
Xavier Worthy, WR | KC
If I had to pick a player to make a splash play on the Kansas City side that swings this game, it’s Xavier Worthy, and it’s not close.
And it’s not the way you’d think.
Worthy’s speed stole headlines at the 2024 NFL Combine, which seems to be attached to his name (listen to the broadcast and jot down how often an adjective is tied into any mention). It’s impactful, but the common person thinks of it as an advantage down the field when running routes.
Andy Reid is not the “common person”.
Don’t get me wrong, we could see a bomb like that, but that’s not what the usage patterns suggest is most likely. Over his past three games, Worthy has caught 19 of 22 targets courtesy of a 3.1-yard average depth of target.
Speed is great, but offenses don’t move down the field based on winning a foot race. They do so by completing passes and moving the sticks, something that Reid is clearly prioritizing with his rookie receiver.
We should embrace this usage because it adds a floor to a profile that carries more upside than most in the first place given his situation. Worthy has been targeted at least five times in seven straight and has a rush attempt in six straight — they are feeding him actual opportunities instead of prayer yards.
Let me walk that back.
We should embrace this usage … long-term. In the scope of this weekend, the Eagles allow the third-fewest WR yards after the catch per reception. This defense has developed into an elite one, and tackling is among its strengths. It isn’t exactly vulnerable down the field (33.6% completion percentage on those passes, third lowest), but it does allow the eighth-most yards per reception when those bombs are completed (28.7).
If you’re betting on Worthy this week, especially at what I expect to be a chalky ownership rate, I think you’re betting on Reid’s ability to scheme; that’s fine. My angle, however, is that his previous usage isn’t as predictive in this specific spot as it might otherwise be.
It carries a little bit of juice, but I’m in on Worthy going under 5.5 receptions on Sunday.
Super Bowl 59 Fantasy Football Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI
Dallas Goedert is on a nice run despite the limited passing volume that Philadelphia’s offense continues to post. The 30-year-old has caught 15 of his 18 targets during the Eagles’ run through the NFC this postseason and has shown the ability to make chunk plays. In all three playoff games, Goedert has a 24+ yard reception dating back to the regular season, that’s five in a row with a 17+ yard grab.
The problem for me when projecting Goedert to sustain this run of production is that what he is doing is coming at the expense of his more talented teammates who both showed signs of life last week.
During the first two rounds of the playoffs, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 100 receiving yards. Against the Commanders in the NFC Championship game, however, Brown got loose for 96 yards and Smith totaled 45, a stat line that doesn’t include him drawing a pass interference in the end zone.
Trivia time for you to flash at your Super Bowl event: How many tight ends not named Kelce or Gronkowski have had 45 receiving yards and a touchdown since 2000?
- Zach Ertz (2017 vs. Patriots)
- Aaron Hernandez (2011 vs. Giants)
That’s it. This hasn’t traditionally been a spot for big tight end performances, and in an offense that ranks first in rush rate over expectation, I’m awfully skeptical. Goedert cleared 62 receiving yards just once this regular season — it’s Kelce or nothing in terms of the tight end position in DFS this week with the one-game slate not requiring you to roster someone at the position.
Travis Kelce, TE | KC
Travis Kelce was invisible on Sunday night. His 29 routes totaled 19 yards, and he was just never able to shake free to make an impact.
Perfect.
Well, not perfect if you played the Playoff Kelce thing in DFS in the Conference Championship round, but perfect as we look ahead to the Super Bowl showdown slate. One game doesn’t undo the fact that this team tends to look the way of their Hall of Fame tight end this time of year, and we might get a little “he burned me last week” discount in terms of ownership.
Against the Bills, Kelce was on the field for 92.1% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps, his highest rate since Week 11 of last season — against the Eagles (94.6%). We know he is going to be on the field plenty, and history suggests that the volume is going to go his direction, so why not roster him?
Why not captain him?
It’s common practice to want to wedge a QB into the Captain spot, especially in a game where two elites are doing battle. But that doesn’t line up as optimal in my opinion, regardless of what side you like in this game.
Kelce’s five best fantasy games, 2023-24:
- 35.9 PPR points: Mahomes throws for 424 yards and two TD
- 29.1 PPR points: Mahomes throws for 241 yards and one TD
- 25.0 PPR points: Mahomes throws for 262 yards and two TD
- 24.7 PPR points: Mahomes throws for 177 yards and one TD
- 24.5 PPR points: Mahomes throws for 215 yards and two TD
In those games, Kelce has accounted for 43.7% of Mahomes’ yards through the air. If Kelce is going off in the way that you need him to justify rostering him as your captain, it doesn’t require Mahomes to go crazy. That makes this roster construction viable. Based on the opening lines, a same-game parlay of Kelce over his receiving yardage total (63.5 yards) and Mahomes under his passing yards (251.5) pays +345 thanks to the inversely correlated nature of the wager.
I currently have Mahomes penciled in as a Flex player in this roster, but if you want to roster Kelce in a unique way, you can load up and go the double-kicker route.
CPT: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Patrick Mahomes
FLEX: Harrison Butker
FLEX: Saquon Barkley
FLEX: Jake Elliott
FLEX: Eagles D/ST
Is it a sexy lineup? It’s not, but the story that needs to be told is reasonably clear — Mahomes and Kelce do their thing while the Eagles control tempo. The kicking game is more viable with this game indoors, and if Philadelphia holds a lead, the turnover equity that Mahomes holds is greater. I’m not suggesting this is a “safe” lineup, but by getting unique and leaving money on the table, it’s an option in GPP formats.
