After 21 weeks of action, the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs are the only two teams remaining, a story that mirrors what we saw in 2022.
Two seasons ago, the Chiefs won a thriller, outscoring the Eagles 24-11 in the second half and kicking off what will go down in history as an all-time run if they can repeat that result on Feb. 9 in New Orleans. But will they?
There were plenty of outliers in that first meeting that resulted in Kansas City raising the Lombardi — asking all of those chips to fall into place again is a bit optimistic, thus giving Philadelphia fans every reason to think that things will be different this time around.
How Super Bowl 57’s Data Can Impact Super Bowl 59’s Matchup
Saquon Barkley
Let’s start with the obvious change – No. 26. Saquon Barkley cleared 2,000 rushing yards during the regular season, earned himself an invite to the NFL Honors ceremony as an MVP finalist, and has been even better during the postseason. He spent the 2022 season with the New York Giants; while he had a nice season (1,312 rushing yards), he was unable to impact the chase for a Super Bowl due to the roster’s limitations around him.
SAQUON ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!
📺: #WASvsPHI on FOX
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/26534Ls9Mx— NFL (@NFL) January 26, 2025
The Eagles could have used him — this was Philadelphia’s RBs’ rushing production in Super Bowl 57:
- Kenneth Gainwell: seven carries for 21 yards
- Miles Sanders: seven carries for 16 yards
- Boston Scott: three carries for eight yards
For those not mathematically inclined, that’s 17 carries for 45 yards for an entire game. For context, Barkley has three times as many 45+-yard carries this season as any other player in the NFL. To take it a step further …
- Barkley has 3.3% of all RB carries in 2024
- Barkley has 18.4% of 45+ yard RB carries in 2024
- Barkley has 4.4% of all RB rushing TDs in 2024
- Barkley has 25.9% of 45+ yard RB rushing TDs in 2024
OK, now that the obvious is out of the way, let’s get into the nitty-gritty.
Offensive Efficiency
The 17-8 fourth quarter immediately comes to mind when recounting Super Bowl 57. Patrick Mahomes’ 26-yard run to move the Chiefs into melt-the-clock-and-kick-the-game-winning-chip-shot-FG range will live on for a long time in Super Bowl highlight reels, but it’s possible that none of that matters had Nick Bolton not scooped and scored on a Jalen Hurts second-quarter fumble.
Those plays happen, but not often. During this three-year run, 3.59% of Kansas City’s touchdowns have come via a non-offensive play, the ninth-lowest rate in the league. Since that moment, 4.35% of touchdowns scored against the Eagles are non-offensive, well below the NFL average (5.23%).
Not only is a play like this an outlier, but the timing in which it occurred could not have been more crippling. Removing that series, here are the first-half drive summaries for both teams:
Philadelphia Eagles
- Touchdown: 11 plays for 75 yards
- Punt: three plays for -4 yards
- Touchdown: five plays for 68 yards
- Touchdown: 12 plays for 75 yards
- Field goal: eight plays for 40 yards
Kansas City Chiefs
- Touchdown: six plays for 75 yards
- Missed field goal: seven plays for 42 yards
- Punt: three plays for two yards
- Punt: five plays for nine yards
Even with the turnover, the Eagles averaged 4.0 points per drive in the first quarter, a mark which carries an 80.4% win rate over the past three seasons (record: 144-35).
Rush Defense
Mahomes earned his second Super Bowl MVP to end the 2022 season, and while he played well, he didn’t handle the offensive lift by himself. Kansas City was able to control some of the tempo, beating Philadelphia the way Philadelphia dominated in 2024. They ran for 158 yards and a score on 26 carries, a level of production that allowed them to hold the uber-productive Eagles to three second-half possessions (excluding the final play).
This season, five backs other than Barkley ran for 1,300 yards, and three were at the core of highly successful rushing performances against this Eagles defense, with two coming back in September when this unit was still working on finding its footing.
- Week 1 vs. Green Bay Packers: 163 rush yards allowed
- Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons: 152 rush yards allowed
- Week 13 at Baltimore Ravens: 166 rush yards allowed
Everybody gives up rushing yards to those offenses — Kansas City’s offense isn’t that (23rd in rushing yards per game, 31st in yards per carry, and 32nd in yards per carry gained after contact). In Philadelphia’s other 17 games this season, they’ve allowed 94.5 rush yards per game, making a repeat of how the Super Bowl played out two years ago highly unlikely.
First-Down Offense
The Chiefs had no answer for the Eagles on first downs (6.9 yards per play), and that is an increasingly problematic flaw.
NFL win rates when averaging 6.9+ yards on first downs:
- 2021: 55.0%
- 2022: 56.3%
- 2023: 63.1%
- 2024: 67.9%
The Eagles are averaging 25% more yards per first-down play during the postseason than during the regular season, and the 8.5 mark they posted against the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game was Philadelphia’s best rate since Week 3 of 2022.
Defensive Pressure
On Super Bowl Sunday in 2023, the Eagles pressured Mahomes on 35.5% of his dropbacks but could not drag him to the ground. The ability to generate heat like that is generally a positive, but only if you can get home, something that typically comes with a high pressure rate.
NFL average sack rate when creating pressure:
- 2019-21: 19.5% (Eagles: 19.1%)
- 2022-24: 20.7% (Eagles: 22.9%)
This season, in 94% of the games where a team created pressure on at least 35.5% of the defensive snaps, they got home at least once. If Philadelphia’s pressure rate from the previous meeting is sustained, the math suggests that it’ll be more impactful on the outcome.
Chiefs’ Red-Zone Offense
The NFL hasn’t figured out Mahomes and this offense, obviously, but when the field is condensed, the sledding has gotten significantly more difficult, something that could flip the outcome this time around.
In that first meeting in 2023, the Chiefs cashed four of their five red-zone trips into touchdowns. In a game that demanded efficiency, converting those chances into six points and not three proved paramount.
Chiefs’ red-zone touchdown rate:
- 2018-22: 65.2% (NFL average: 58.4%)
- 2023-24: 52.6% (NFL average: 56.4%)
The Eagles were close to winning the first Jalen Hurts vs. Mahomes Super Bowl, and the statistically inclined trend toward them deserving a banner for that season, but the Chiefs did enough to come away with the win. Now, with history on the line, can Philadelphia obtain the ring they felt was earned two years ago?
