On Wednesday, Liam Coen withdrew his name from the Jacksonville Jaguars’ head-coaching search and reached an agreement with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to become one of the highest-paid offensive coordinators in the NFL.
However, on Thursday, Coen never showed up to sign his agreement and the Bucs couldn’t reach him. Now, after meeting in person with the Jaguars, Coen has reportedly accepted their offer to become Jacksonville’s next head coach.
Let’s examine Coen’s background and whether the Jaguars hired the right candidate after an unprecedented situation.
Why Liam Coen Is the Right Hire for the Jaguars
This season was Coen’s first in Tampa Bay, and he immediately led one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Bucs ranked third in PFN’s Offense+ metric, a huge leap from last year’s 22nd-place ranking.
Under Coen’s coaching, Baker Mayfield posted one of the best seasons in Buccaneers history and ranked sixth in PFN’s QB+ metric (after ranking 13th in 2023) and eighth in EPA per play (after ranking 14th in 2023). Mayfield and the Bucs offense produced at elite levels despite missing Chris Godwin for the final 10 games of the regular season and Mike Evans missing three.
One key development to Mayfield’s sensational season was his ability to avoid pressure. In 2023, Mayfield was pressured on 34% of his dropbacks and had the fifth-deepest aDOT (8.6 air yards). His tendency to hunt for big plays led to some explosive games and caused him to invite more pressure. In 2024, Mayfield was pressured on 24% of his dropbacks, the third-lowest. His willingness to get the ball out of his hands earlier was a big part of that.
Mayfield’s aDOT dropped from the fifth-deepest to the seventh-shortest (6.9 air yards). Could Trevor Lawrence be the next Mayfield? Lawrence has seen his QB+ grade decline in three consecutive seasons (79.5 in 2022, 67.1 in 2023, and 64.5 in 2024), failing to succeed despite an increased level of aggression.
- 2022: 7.4 air yards per throw
- 2023: 8.2 air yards per throw
- 2024: 9.4 air yards per throw
What helped Mayfield succeed this season? Under the watch of Coen, his aDOT was dialed back by 18.6%, and he thrived on those short passes (under 10 air yards):
- Short pass passer rating: 2nd (112.8, behind only Lamar Jackson)
- Short pass completion percentage: 2nd (79.5%, behind only Tua Tagovailoa)
- Short pass TD%: 2nd (6.8%, behind only Jackson)
Before working with Mayfield in Tampa, Coen did a terrific job developing Will Levis on the Kentucky Wildcats. Although Levis hasn’t worked out in the NFL, he took a huge step in 2021 under Coen’s tutelage.
After two seasons as a backup at Penn State, Levis transferred to Kentucky in 2021 and was responsible for 33 touchdowns (24 passing, nine rushing), fourth-most in the SEC that season. That season vaulted Levis into the first-round discussion. And while he ultimately ended up being a second-round pick, Levis’ 2021 season stands out as an example of quarterback development under Coen’s watch.
Why Liam Coen Isn’t the Right Hire for the Jaguars
The way this whole situation played out — with Coen initially spurning Jacksonville and then ultimately backing out of his agreement with the Bucs, ghosting them, and reportedly lying about being with his sick child at the doctor’s office — is a pretty bad look for the 39-year-old.
While it’s understandable that Coen had a change of heart after the Jaguars fired general manager Trent Baalke, he could have picked up the phone and communicated with the Bucs. The lying and immaturity are a bit of a red flag, and the optics aren’t great for Coen.
As for on-the-field reasons why Coen may not be the best option, he’s a terrific offensive mind, but the Jaguars’ defensive decline in 2024 was as much to blame for the disappointing season as anything.
Without a fix there, the ceiling of any offensive bounceback is low.
2023 Jaguars Defensive Ranks
- Defense+: 14th
- Points Per Drive: 14th
- TO Rate: 13th
- Average Drive Distance: 12th
2024 Jaguars Defensive Ranks
- Defense+: 31st
- Points Per Drive: 30th
- TO Rate: 32nd
- Average Drive Distance: 31st
The other two finalists for this job are defensive coaches, Robert Saleh and Patrick Graham. If Coen does get the job in Jacksonville, he’ll need a top-tier defensive coordinator in order to clean up things on that side of the ball.
Speaking of which, the fact that Coen is so young and has only had two short stints in NFL organizations may make it a bit tough for him to assemble a top-notch staff.
