The NFL Conference Championship games are set, and we have a surprise team in the form of the Washington Commanders crashing the party among the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. They will take on the Philadelphia Eagles in an all-NFC East clash before the attention turns to the yearly Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs playoff battle in the AFC Championship Game.
With just three games left in the 2024-25 season, let’s break down how we see both games going in our early NFL picks and predictions.
NFL Conference Championship Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Picks are based on the lines available at DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4:30 a.m. ET on Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. In the Divisional Round, this article was on the right side of three of the four results with teasers and picked the Bills ML when they became underdogs on Tuesday.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Commanders +185; Eagles -225
- Total: 48.5
Prior to Saturday night, this game hadn’t even crossed my mind as being a realistic possibility. The Eagles losing to the Los Angeles Rams was the more likely upset of the two, but the Commanders were extremely impressive in scoring 45 points against the Detroit Lions. Washington was aided by five turnovers from the Lions, including a pick-six and an interception on a trick play.
We saw this game twice in the regular season, with the Eagles winning fairly comfortably in Week 11 before the Commanders won a Week 16 thriller after Jalen Hurts was knocked out of the game. While Hurts was hurt against the Rams, he does look set to suit up for this game, which rightly means the Eagles are favored.
This is an obvious statement, given Saquon Barkley’s success this season, but the run game is going to be key in this matchup. In the first game, Barkley rushed for 146 yards and two touchdowns, with Philadelphia totaling 228 rushing yards. Even in the second game, Barkley rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns, with the Eagles totaling 211 rushing yards.
Across the entire season, Washington ranks 27th against the run in terms of success rate (57.1%) and 29th in EPA per play (-0.03). Things haven’t been much better over the last four games, ranking 30th in success rate (51.0%) and 31st in EPA per play (-0.14). The Commanders’ pass defense has been better in recent weeks, but if they can’t stop Barkley, it will be tough.
In the passing game, the Commanders must put pressure on Hurts. They were very good at doing so without blitzing this season (34.6%) but ranked in the middle of the pack overall in pressure rate (22.6%). Hurts has struggled when pressured this year, posting a -0.43 EPA per dropback, which ranks 26th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks. Washington will likely need to force mistakes from Hurts to win this game.
The matchup between the Eagles’ offense and the Commanders’ defense is fairly clear-cut. Philadelphia’s offense ranks just inside the top 10, while Washington’s defense is down in 18th. It’s hard to imagine the Eagles not at least getting in the 24-30 point range, which makes the matchup intriguing.
Both units are inside the top 10 in our rankings, with the Eagles’ defense second overall and the Commanders’ offense fourth overall. As those rankings suggest, both are very good units across the board.
Washington will have to be as bold as it was in the game against Detroit. We saw on Sunday that if you just keep giving the ball to Hurts and Barkley, Philadelphia’s relentless running will eventually crack a defense.
Against the Lions, the Commanders only punted once, and Detroit made them pay with an 11-play touchdown drive to get within three points. Washington did not make that mistake again, going for it on the next three fourth downs, converting two, and getting a third by penalty. They had also been bold in the first half, going for it twice and only settling for a field goal twice.
Washington won the time-of-possession battle against Detroit and must try and do so again this week. If they can limit opportunities for the Eagles, the Commanders can keep their defense fresh and hopefully restrict Barkley to a mediocre day. That still might be 100+ yards and a couple of touchdowns, but they need to stay out of the 200+ yard territory if they want to head back to the Super Bowl.
Our simulations have the Eagles winning 61.8% of the time, which is slightly below the 69.2% implied probability from the sportsbooks. This game has a very similar feel to the one against the Lions. The Eagles are dealing with a couple of injuries on defense and cannot really afford to lose anyone else.
Philadelphia just needs to play its usual brand of football, which is to be safe with the ball and powerful. Hurts has only thrown one interception since Week 3, but he’s had some fumbling concerns. Barkley has only fumbled twice all year and has just eight in his seven-year career. If both of those trends continue, it’s hard to see how the Eagles lose this game.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles laying 4.5 is the best play. That doesn’t mean I love it, but of all the options here, that is the most likely outcome.
Washington has overcome the odds twice this season, largely thanks to forcing turnovers while playing safe football themselves. They cannot rely on that, however, and Philadelphia’s defense is good enough that it’s hard to imagine the Commanders matching the Eagles’ scoring ability.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 20
Pick: Eagles -4.5
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Bills +105; Chiefs -125
- Total: 48.5
The Bills are entering familiar territory. The Chiefs have ended their season in three of the last four years, with two of those losses having been at Arrowhead.
Buffalo knows they can beat the Chiefs. They’ve done it four years running in the regular season, including three times in Kansas City. The problem is that it has been 30 years since they beat them in a playoff game, and they’ve never won on the road in Kansas City in the playoffs.
Buffalo enters this game as the better team in terms of the metrics. They sit third in our PR+, having just knocked off the No. 2 side, with the fourth-ranked offense and the 18th-ranked defense. Kansas City isn’t far behind in sixth overall, with the 12th-ranked offense and the 14th-ranked defense.
The Bills’ offense has been good overall this year, with no real weaknesses. They don’t turn the ball over, and they convert on over 68% of their red-zone opportunities. Those red-zone moments are going to be key, with the Chiefs’ defense ranking seventh this year inside the 20 and limiting teams to touchdowns on just 50.9% of drives.
Buffalo only settled for one field goal in the regular-season matchup, and that was with just five seconds left in the second quarter to take the lead and knowing they would get the ball back in the second half. Other than that, the Bills were immaculate in the red zone, much like they were in knocking off the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round.
Where this game will likely be won and lost is when the Chiefs are on offense. The Bills demonstrated some vulnerability against the run when facing the Ravens but have generally been solid in that area this season.
Opposing passing games have been more of a concern, and we occasionally saw that in the Divisional Round. Buffalo ranks 28th in pass success rate (52.5%) and 24th in EPA per dropback (-0.1).
To watch the Chiefs, you wouldn’t think that they’ve been a great passing team this year, but the numbers are pretty nice. Kansas City ranks seventh in pass success rate (48.6%) and eighth in EPA per dropback (0.1). Efficiency and clear thinking have been the hallmarks of this Chiefs season, as opposed to the pure domination we’ve seen in previous seasons.
Third downs and the red zone are always crucial, and with the Chiefs ranking third in third-down conversions this season (47.9%) but down in 24th in the red zone (52.9%), they will be once again this week. Buffalo’s defense has allowed a 44.1% conversion rate, which ranks 28th, and allowed KC to convert on five of 10 third downs in the regular season.
Inside the red zone, the Chiefs were a perfect 3 for 3 in the regular season. The fact that the Bills managed to win despite the Chiefs having one of their better days inside the 20 makes that win in Highmark Stadium even more impressive. Kansas City may need to be just as good inside the 20 again in order to make it back to the Super Bowl for a third year in succession.
We have reached the point with the Chiefs where it just feels inevitable. They went 11-0 in one-score games in the regular season, and they always find a way to win. Their game is more cerebral than exciting. They are ruthless with opportunities, they know how to use the rules, and they play the percentages excellently.
In contrast, the Bills are dynamic, exciting, and almost carefree. They almost play backyard football, and they seem to be driven by emotion rather than calculated decisions. That is probably an unfair assessment because there is certainly plenty of planning and thought that goes into their game, but Buffalo’s appearance makes it look off the cuff rather than pre-planned.
The Bills’ three losses that really count (not Week 18) all came on the road this year, and one of them was in the hostile atmosphere of M&T Bank Stadium. However, their last big road game was in Detroit, in a fevered atmosphere, and they were impeccable, with a 48-42 final score not doing justice to how in control they were of that game.
Despite that, it’s hard not to take Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes may not dominate in the way we saw early in his career, but with the season on the line, he makes the plays more often than not. With Andy Reid, the Chiefs also have the head coach advantage, and their defense is more reliable than Buffalo’s.
Therefore, I lean toward the Chiefs ML and lay the 1.5 points. However, the play I am looking at is to tease the Bills up to +7.5 and pair it with the total teased down to 42.5. It’s hard to imagine this game not finishing at least 23-20 and most likely higher scoring than that.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 24
Pick: Lean Chiefs ML, Bills +7.5 and Over 42.5 points in a teaser
