The last game of the Divisional Round promises to be a good one. Two MVP candidates squaring off in potentially frigid, snowy weather under the bright lights. What more could you ask for? Here is everything you need to know about this week’s Sunday Night Football game.
Sunday Night Football Tonight
- Teams: Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
- Location: Highmark Stadium
In the first matchup between these two teams, the Bills did not play up to their standards. The Ravens were able to run all over them, resulting in a 35-10 blowout. Derrick Henry had 24 runs for 199 yards and a touchdown, while Jackson added 6 runs for 54 yards and a score.
According to TruMedia, the Bills’ defense ranks 19th in opponent yards per rush but 10th in defensive rushing success rate and third in defensive rush EPA (expected points added). Their overall success against the run is hampered by their tendency to give up explosive plays. They allow 3.6 runs of 10 or more yards a game this season, which is good for 24th.
In the game against Baltimore, they allowed six runs of 10+, three of 20+, and even one of 50+. In order to win this battle, they are either going to need to fix that or score some points. While I don’t think they will be as bad as they were earlier this season, I do believe they will need to score points because no one can stop this Baltimore ground game.
In fact, only four games this season saw Baltimore rank below average in rushing EPA. In the game against the New York Giants, they still managed 5.5 yards per carry and 170 yards on the ground, but their efficiency dropped because it was a blowout, and they were running the clock out.
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In Week 8, against the Cleveland Browns, they spent 0% of their plays in a positive game script situation (above 70% win probability) and 18.18% of their plays in a negative situation (below 30%). In week 10, against the Cincinnati Bengals, it was 12.2% in the positive and 34.15% in the negative.
That is the key to stopping the Ravens. Score enough points early to keep them from being able to control the time of possession through running the football. Derrick Henry ranks 40th of 43 running backs with over 300 snaps in number of routes ran on third down. If you include all 120 running backs to have run a route this season, he ranks 73rd, while Justice Hill ranks 14th.
What Time Is Sunday Night Football Tonight?
- Date: Jan. 19, 2025
- Start time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel and Live Stream for Sunday Night Football
- Channel: CBS
- Live Streams: Paramount+
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Stats and Insights
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Lamar Jackson was the MVP in 2019. The next season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 179 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Advanced to play a 13-win Bills team
Jackson was the MVP in 2023. This season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 175 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Will play a 13-win Bills team
QB: Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts.
Offense: Over their past five games (all wins), Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 40.8% of their drives (they were one of the elite offenses prior to this run with a 33.3% rate).
Defense: Opponents are 0-of-6 on fourth downs against the Ravens over the past four games (prior: 12-of-23).
Fantasy: On Saturday, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have four games in a season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns when he was 30+ years of age.
Betting: Baltimore has covered six of eight road games after failing to do so in the season opener at Arrowhead.
Buffalo Bills
Team: All four of Buffalo’s losses this season have come following a blowout result the week prior.
QB: Excluding the one-snap Week 18, Josh Allen is 13-of-16 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions on third down over his past two games.
Offense: The Bills have not committed a turnover in six of seven games since their Week 12 bye.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to score a TD on all four of their red zone trips in their Week 4 meeting – they’ve allowed two red zone scores on six trips over their past three games (Denver was 0-of-1).
Fantasy: The Bills didn’t lead for a single second of the first game with the Ravens – James Cook’s production over expectation this season is 16.4% higher when playing from ahead as opposed to behind.
Betting: The Bills have rotated covering with not covering in seven straight games (they covered easily against the Broncos on Sunday).