Mother Nature could be serving up a wintery wonderland on Sunday, Jan. 19, for the NFL‘s Divisional Round. With two outdoor games set to be played in the Northeast of the country, it looks like we could see snow at both games. That will almost certainly alter the way all four teams approach the games and could have a major impact on fantasy football and DFS decisions.
Let’s examine the weather forecast for the two NFL games on Sunday and what it might mean for the decisions of fantasy managers in each game.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles Weather
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 7 a.m. ET on Sunday, Jan. 19, 2025. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
- Kickoff: 3 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 30s degrees Fahrenheit
- Precipitation: >80% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8-13 mph northerly
While the exact forecast for Sunday’s game in Lincoln Financial Field, one thing has remained fairly consistent: snow. All week, snow has been forecast, but the question has been how much we will see. Multiple inches of snow falling during the game has become the accepted amount across most forecasts, and that now appears to have settled at around two to three inches falling during the game itself.
Currently, 3.4 inches of snow are forecasted between 1 and 7 p.m. ET. That is not an insignificant amount of snow to fall during a game, and there likely will be some impact, but it is not as much as has been projected at times this week, even as late as Saturday morning.
Good morning! Our NBC10 weather team is expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow later this afternoon and it should be snowing during the Eagles Rams divisional playoff game. That means another snow game!
https://t.co/eqrJ2vdwja— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) January 19, 2025
In terms of how that may impact the game, we can look back over the last decade for an idea. In 17 games with snow falling at kickoff, the average points scored is 41.53. That is actually slightly higher than the 40.06 points scored in games with rain at kickoff but around 10% below the 45.9 points when a game kicks off in clear conditions.
The main impact of snow is felt in the passing game, with the average fantasy points per quarterback per team falling from over 13.5 to around 9.7. Accordingly, the average number of fantasy points by a receiver drops from 56.1 to 43.3, with passing yards per play falling from 6.3 to 5.57. The kicking game also sees a decline, but only noticeably in kicks over 50 yards, with zero being made in the last decade.
MORE: Updated Playoff Bracket
Where we do see an increase is in the run game, with fantasy points per game increasing from 16.3 to 20.3. Interestingly, the average rushing yards per game only increase from 113.8 per game to 127.4. However, we see more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns in snow games, and we see more targets per game for running backs in snow games.
All of this means that, for DFS purposes, it would be logical to be considered when it comes to both passing games. It is hard to trust either set of receivers or Matthew Stafford in these conditions. Puka Nacua may be the only receiver you can trust, as the Rams tend to use him a lot on short passes and almost as an extension of the running game.
In contrast, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, and Jalen Hurts all get a boost in value in these conditions and are likely to be a staple of DFS lineups from this game.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Weather
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: 15-20 degrees Fahrenheit
- Showers: 25% chance at kickoff increasing throughout the game
- Wind: 5-7 mph variable
The conditions in Highmark Stadium may actually prove to be tougher than in Lincoln Financial Field. With temperatures below 20 degrees Fahrenheit and variable winds, it will likely be a relief to players and fans alike that only 0.5 inches of snow is currently forecast to fall during the game.
However, this is another highly changeable forecast, and multiple inches of snow are projected from midnight onward. It is not inconceivable that we could see heavier snowfall than the current forecast projects.
All of the analysis from above holds true regarding the snow, in that it will benefit the running game if that ends up being what happens during the game. However, the big four in terms of fantasy options in this game — Josh Allen, James Cook, Lamar Jackson, and Derrick Henry — should not be too heavily impacted and may actually see a slight boost from a snow game.
The colder weather in Orchard Park, N.Y., is a concern. Temperatures below 30 degrees Fahrenheit do tend to impact the outcome of the game. Over the past decade, the average points scored in games played at 30 degrees Fahrenheit or above is 45.71.
Meanwhile, an average of 41.13 points has been scored in 53 games played in temperatures between 20 and 30 degrees Fahrenheit, and an average of 39.68 points has been scored in 25 games played with a temperature between 10 and 20 degrees Fahrenheit.
We then see a drop in fantasy output in those games, with an average drop of around 10% when the temperature falls to between 10 and 30 degrees Fahrenheit. All of that drop-off comes in the passing game, with the run game seeing similar outputs in terms of fantasy points regardless of the temperatures.
While sustained wind speeds of 10-13 mph and gusts over 20 mph should not be dismissed, they do not significantly increase the more general impact of the cold temperatures. The main impact comes on the kicking game, where we see field goal success rates on kicks over 50 yards plummet to below 50%, but from inside of 50, there is little notable impact.
The variable winds should not be too much of an issue as the speeds are relatively low. Ultimately, the only member of this passing game you were really relying on was Mark Andrews, and he should still have enough value to be usable. From a receiving perspective, it is tough to feel good about either team.
