The Washington Commanders will face the Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Brian Robinson Jr.
Is Brian Robinson Jr. Playing vs. the Lions?
Robinson was not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Commanders’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Brian Robinson Jr. in the Divisional Round?
Playing DFS is often about telling a story — a story for each game and for the slate as a whole. Your precision in storytelling needs to be honed this week due to the nature of the slate, and while I could see how you could get there on Brian Robinson Jr., it’s a tale I’m not willing to say with my trust.
This season, the Commanders rank fifth in the percentage of yards gained on the ground when the game is tied or they have a lead (13th when trailing), and the best way to defend the 2024 Lions is to keep them off the field. Your story involves the second-highest-scoring first-quarter team in the NFL (6.1 PPG) jumping out to a lead and operating from a position of power.
Like I said, I can see how you land on that narrative. If you nail this script, you’re getting 17+ touches (a number Robinson has reached seven times this season) at a major discount and picking up on the field as Washington dictates the tempo and Detroit’s skill position players are relegated to spectating.
Am I talking myself into exposure here?
Not so much. Robinson has failed to clear 13 carries in four straight games and, realistically, hasn’t earned any role extension (under 2.5 yards per carry in three of those contests). I thought Austin Ekeler looked fine over the weekend. While Robinson caught a season-high four passes last week, he’s largely underwhelmed on the versatility front this season.
At the end of the day, I’m comfortable betting against the script in this story, but also how much you realistically gain if you are right. Last week, 19 of Robinson’s 16 rushing yards came after first contact … that’s not a typo, friends; that’s a problem. The Lions’ defense is clearly their weakness, but are we being a little harsh labeling this as a rich man’s version of the Bengals?
Lions’ run defense, 2024:
- Weeks 1-9: 21st in RB yards allowed per carry before first contact
- Weeks 10-17: 10th in RB yards allowed per carry before first contact
Detroit improved its number by 24.6% over that latter stretch (I excluded a weird Week 18 that saw their metrics tank as a result of a conservative game plan due to a big lead — if you think the Lions dominate this game, you’re not rostering Robinson anyway).
For me, there’s serious kill-your-lineup potential if the Lions end up racing out to a big lead. I think those odds are much better than the needed-to-have-Robinson-rostered-to-cash odds. There aren’t many pieces in this game that I’m avoiding, but Washington’s starting running back is one that I am.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Saturday, Robinson is projected to score 10.5 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 13.8 rushing attempts for 55.1 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. It also includes 0.8 receptions for 17.3 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Lions' Defense
Sometimes, Week 18 results can lie, with teams posting disproportionately dominant or awful performances because of backups. The Sunday night showdown between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings was not one of those cases, however.
Instead, Detroit surged up five spots in the final rendition of these rankings with one of the most impressive defensive performances of the season. The Lions ended with their fourth-highest grade of the season (86.3, B) despite rolling out an injury-depleted MASH unit that also lost their top remaining cornerback, Terrion Arnold, to a foot injury.
While the Lions likely aren't a top-five defense entering the playoffs in their current state, it's undeniable how well this team is coached. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn authored a masterpiece game plan, selling out to harass Sam Darnold. Detroit played Cover 0 on a season-high 17.7% of opponent dropbacks, more than triple their season average of 5.1%.
The result? A season-high 75.6% pass defense success rate, a remarkable feat given the Lions' health and quality of their opponent.
This unit is still a concern with all the injuries, particularly if Arnold is out. Linebacker Alex Anzalone was a difference-maker in his return to the lineup, though, and it's still possible for the likes of Carlton Davis and Aidan Hutchinson to return with a deep run.
With what the Lions accomplished in their 15-2 regular season, it would be foolish to totally discount the possibility of Detroit's first Super Bowl appearance.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. LAR)
2) Derrick Henry | BAL (at BUF)
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs. WAS)
4) Kyren Williams | LAR (at PHI)
5) James Cook | BUF (vs. BAL)
6) Joe Mixon | HOU (at KC)
7) David Montgomery | DET (vs. WAS)
8) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at DET)
9) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at DET)
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. HOU)
11) Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. HOU)
12) Justice Hill | BAL (at BUF)
13) Ty Johnson | BUF (vs. BAL)
14) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. LAR)
15) Samaje Perine | KC (vs. HOU)
16) Craig Reynolds | DET (vs. WAS)
17) Dare Ogunbowale | HOU (at KC)
18) Ronnie Rivers | LAR (at PHI)
19) Keaton Mitchell | BAL (at BUF)
20) Dameon Pierce | HOU (at KC)
21) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at DET)
22) Patrick Ricard | BAL (at BUF)
23) Carson Steele | KC (vs. HOU)
24) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (vs. BAL)
25) Sione Vaki | DET (vs. WAS)
Commanders at Lions Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: Since the start of 2022, the Lions have a 73.8% win percentage against teams without a true weapon of a runner under center and a 54.5% mark when facing such an asset – Jayden Daniels certainly falls into that second bucket of QB.
QB: On Sunday night, Daniels completed 58.3% of his pressured passes with two scores and zero interceptions (regular season: 46.4% complete with 1.6 touchdowns-per-interception).
Offense: The Commanders scored 62.5% of their drives in the Wild Card Round and are nearly unstoppable when having success even close to that level (13-2 when scoring on over one-third of their offensive possessions).
Defense: Washington posted a 66.7 Def+ grade on Sunday night, their fourth-worst effort of the season. That said, two of those four instances have come against the Buccaneers, making that potentially a tough matchup more than something to fear moving into the Divisional Round.
Fantasy: If you extrapolate Terry McLaurin’s last seven games for a 17-game season:
- 100 receptions (143 targets)
- 1,127 yards
- 19 touchdowns
- 329.1 PPR fantasy points
Justin Jefferson was WR2 in total PPR points this season with 317.5.
Betting: Since Week 11, Washington is 1-3 ATS against the NFC East and 3-1 ATS against the rest of the NFL
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions scored 41 points against the Chargers last season, coming off their bye. They hung 47 on the Cowboys this season and are now coming off another bye week.
QB: Jared Goff finished the season with a 93.2 grade in our QB+ metric, the 11th-best mark in our six years of tracking (second best this season, trailing Lamar Jackson).
Offense: The Lions ranked third in fourth-down conversions during the regular season (22) and tied for seventh in fourth-down conversion rate (66.7%).
Defense: Detroit's offense gets the attention, but its defense ranked seventh in turnover rate and red zone efficiency for the season.
Fantasy: The best games over PPR fantasy expectation during the second half of the season, minimum 20 touches:
- Week 12 Saquon Barkley (at LAR): +127.1%
- Week 16 Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN): +124.1%
- Week 18 Gibbs (vs. MIN): +114.4%
- Week 17 Gibbs (at SF): +77.9%
- Week 9 Derrick Henry (vs. DEN): +77%
Betting: The Lions have covered 70% of their games since Dan Campbell took over (49-21-1), and they are easily the best mark in the league (the Bengals at 61.6% are the only other team at 58%).
