The Houston Texans will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB C.J. Stroud.
Is C.J. Stroud Playing vs. the Chiefs?
Stroud was not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any unexpected setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Texans’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit C.J. Stroud in the Divisional Round?
Stroud is off to a promising start to his career, and that’s great. During the 2024 Wild Card Round, he became the sixth QB to win a playoff game in each of his first two seasons. I’m intrigued by what he can do with this franchise. Houston made it clear that they want their fate tied to their franchise signal caller and, in theory, that’s all we can ask for:
Texans’ highest first-half dropback rates, 2024:
- Saturday vs. Chargers: 78.8%
- Week 16 at Chiefs: 77.1%
- Week 12 vs. Titans: 73.9%
- Week 15 vs. Dolphins: 73.9%
- Week 17 vs. Ravens: 71%
My concern is the regression in stretching the field and how that projects in this specific spot. Stroud threw 116 deep passes (15+ air yards) a season ago and 122 this season. The attempt count was similar, but the success rate was very different.
- 2023: Nine touchdowns and zero interceptions
- 2024: Five touchdowns and seven interceptions
He wasn’t much better last week (3-of-6 on these passes with an interception), and if he can’t connect on the home-run balls, he’s likely to finish this weekend as the lowest-scoring player at the position.
Chiefs vs. deep passes, 2024:
- Yards per pass: 11.8 (23rd)
- Yards per completion: 29.2 (27th)
Otherwise:
- Yards per pass: 5.8 (fifth)
- Yards per completion: 8.0 (third)
Teams have been unable to win underneath against Kansas City, and Stroud has been unable to consistently produce vertically. Could you spin that in a positive light? You certainly could.
“Stroud has Nico Collins and the Chiefs are vulnerable down the field”
Easy.
You could tell that story, but I’m trusting the 19 weeks of data that suggest that this Houston offense isn’t going to produce splash plays in bulk. If you see it differently, you stand to put yourself in a very good late-swap position. This is the first game of the week, and that means that if you nail this call (and potentially even in a stack), you essentially have a head start on the majority of the field.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
C.J. Stroud’s Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Saturday, Stroud is projected to score 14.2 fantasy points in the Divisional Round. This includes 210.3 passing yards, 1.1 passing touchdowns, and 0.3 interceptions. It also includes 2.5 rushing attempts for 11.1 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Chiefs' Defense
The Chiefs were a top-10 defense entering Week 18 but saw their ranking tank after the junior varsity team flopped against the Broncos.
Ignoring Week 18, Kansas City would have ranked eighth in EPA per rush and 11th in EPA per dropback. While not quite the dominant level of last year's unit, that well-rounded top-10-level performance is more than enough to support an ascending offense.
The most encouraging sign for this unit was its improving pass rush. From Weeks 12-17, Kansas City had the fourth-highest non-blitz pressure rate (36.2%), a big leap after ranking 16th in that category (31.6%) from Weeks 1-10.
That's especially frightening to consider when you remember that Steve Spagnuolo's designer pressures are what this unit typically feasts on. Kansas City ended up blitzing at the ninth-highest rate this season (30.8%) and posted the seventh-best EPA per play while doing so.
After some shaky weeks and midseason questions, the Chiefs appear to be peaking as the postseason arrives, setting aside the de facto exhibition in Week 18. That's a familiar story from last season and could result in a familiar ending in February as well.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
C.J. Stroud’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (vs. BAL)
2) Lamar Jackson | BAL (at BUF)
3) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at DET)
4) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. LAR)
5) Jared Goff | DET (vs. WAS)
6) Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs. HOU)
7) Matthew Stafford | LAR (at PHI)
8) C.J. Stroud | HOU (at KC)
Texans at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans have yet to win more than three games in a row during the C.J. Stroud era. They’ll need to extend their win streak to four games to reach the Super Bowl.
QB: Stroud had a 27-yard rush against the Chargers – prior to that, he didn’t have 27 rushing yards in a game since Halloween.
Offense: The Texans bet heavily on Stroud early, part of a theme during the second half of their season:
Texans: Highest First-Half Dropback Rates in 2024
- Saturday vs. Chargers: 78.8%
- Week 16 at Chiefs: 77.1%
- Week 12 vs. Titans: 73.9%
- Week 15 vs. Dolphins: 73.9%
- Week 17 vs. Ravens: 71%
Defense: Houston posted its second-best Defense+ grade in our database (since 2019), 88.7, which was 5.6 points better than its best showing during the regular season.
Fantasy: Joe Mixon has recorded multiple red zone touches in 13 straight games.
Betting: The Texans opened the season 0-4 ATS – they are 8-5-1 since, with covers against the Bill and Lions as a part of that.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Kansas City had a first-round bye on its way to a title in 2022, and there were no signs of rust—they scored in each of their first three possessions and allowed just 5.1 yards per play in the first half of the divisional round.
QB: Patrick Mahomes posted an 84.8 grade in our QB+ metric this season, 10th best in the NFL (below his career norm, but ahead of his 81.5 from a season ago).
Offense: Kansas City settled for a field goal on just 13.4% of its drives in 2022—their rate was 18.4% in 2023 and 18.9% this year.
Defense: In Weeks 15-17, understanding that this team rested most of their playmakers in Week 18, the Chiefs allowed a touchdown on just two of seven opponent red zone drives.
Fantasy: DeAndre Hopkins has topped out at a 63.1% snap share with Kansas City and now has to navigate a healthy Hollywood Brown, who has been targeted on 44.1% of his routes in two games back.
Betting: The Chiefs had a losing ATS record in the 2022 season before going on to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs had a negative average cover margin in 2023 before going on to win the Super Bowl. They did both of those things this past regular season.
