The Baltimore Ravens will face the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Justice Hill.
Is Justice Hill Playing vs. the Bills?
Hill is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any unexpected setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Ravens’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Justice Hill in the Divisional Round?
Hill got into the end zone last week, and that was great if you had him rostered, but that felt very much like a tail outcome more than one you can bank on. It took the backup back 10 touches to gain 25 yards, a day that disappoints you in a major way if not for Lamar Jackson creating magic on the TD.
If you’re telling me that I need a score from a player who shares a backfield with Derrick Henry, never mind Jackson, I’m going to pass. If you’re planning on saving salary on a player like Hill, you need to lean all the way in.
By rostering Hill, you’re essentially projecting the Bills to put points on the board and make this Baltimore offense one-dimensional. If you need that to be the case to justify playing Hill, don’t you need to stack up members of this Baltimore offense to make that happen?
In my opinion, you can justify playing any eligible player this week, but there are certain ways to do it to maximize your points if the story you’re spinning is accurate. If you play Hill and no Bills, I’m not sure of the game script that can pay off that decision, and that means you’re drawing close to dead before kickoff.
I’m not going this route regardless of Zay Flowers’ status, but another mouth to feed in the passing game would only drag down my ranking for Hill. If you want to pay down at the RB position, I’d recommend going to the least-owned Chiefs back — that said, I’m pinching pennies at the pass-catcher positions instead.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Justice Hill’s Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Sunday, Hill is projected to score 5.8 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 3.8 rushing attempts for 17.3 yards and 0.1 touchdowns. It also includes 1.7 receptions for 14.8 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Buffalo Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
However, the Bills were able to overwhelm the Broncos in the Wild Card round following an opening drive touchdown. Buffalo had a strong run defense all year (sixth in EPA per rush), and that came through with the team's fourth-best EPA per rush (0.27).
However, the leaky pass defense that ranked 26th in EPA per dropback also played at a well above-average level. Buffalo averaged 0.18 defensive EPA per dropback vs. the Broncos, the team's sixth-best showing of the season.
The Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo has met that threshold against lesser competition but will be challenged this week against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, as well as in a potential AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Justice Hill’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. LAR)
2) Derrick Henry | BAL (at BUF)
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs. WAS)
4) Kyren Williams | LAR (at PHI)
5) James Cook | BUF (vs. BAL)
6) Joe Mixon | HOU (at KC)
7) David Montgomery | DET (vs. WAS)
8) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at DET)
9) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at DET)
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. HOU)
11) Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. HOU)
12) Justice Hill | BAL (at BUF)
13) Ty Johnson | BUF (vs. BAL)
14) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. LAR)
15) Samaje Perine | KC (vs. HOU)
16) Craig Reynolds | DET (vs. WAS)
17) Dare Ogunbowale | HOU (at KC)
18) Ronnie Rivers | LAR (at PHI)
19) Keaton Mitchell | BAL (at BUF)
20) Dameon Pierce | HOU (at KC)
21) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at DET)
22) Patrick Ricard | BAL (at BUF)
23) Carson Steele | KC (vs. HOU)
24) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (vs. BAL)
25) Sione Vaki | DET (vs. WAS)
Ravens at Bills Trends and Insights
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Lamar Jackson was the MVP in 2019. The next season ...
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 179 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Advanced to play a 13-win Bills team
Jackson was the MVP in 2023. This season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 175 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Will play a 13-win Bills team
QB: Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts.
Offense: Over their past five games (all wins), Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 40.8% of their drives (they were one of the elite offenses prior to this run with a 33.3% rate).
Defense: Opponents are 0-of-6 on fourth downs against the Ravens over the past four games (prior: 12-of-23).
Fantasy: On Saturday, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have four games in a season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns when he was 30+ years of age.
Betting: Baltimore has covered six of eight road games after failing to do so in the season opener at Arrowhead.
Buffalo Bills
Team: All four of Buffalo’s losses this season have come following a blowout result the week prior.
QB: Excluding the one-snap Week 18, Josh Allen is 13-of-16 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions on third down over his past two games.
Offense: The Bills have not committed a turnover in six of seven games since their Week 12 bye.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to score a TD on all four of their red zone trips in their Week 4 meeting – they’ve allowed two red zone scores on six trips over their past three games (Denver was 0-of-1).
Fantasy: The Bills didn’t lead for a single second of the first game with the Ravens – James Cook’s production over expectation this season is 16.4% higher when playing from ahead as opposed to behind.
Betting: The Bills have rotated covering with not covering in seven straight games (they covered easily against the Broncos on Sunday).
