The Baltimore Ravens will face the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Lamar Jackson.
Is Lamar Jackson Playing vs. the Bills?
Jackson is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any unexpected setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Ravens’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Lamar Jackson in the Divisional Round?
The matchup is an interesting one — the Bills were able to heat up Bo Nix over the weekend, but they are the lowest-pressure-rate playoff team when looking at the larger picture. How sticky do you believe Buffalo’s numbers from last week are? For me, it impacts where you stand on Jackson and the Ravens as a whole.
Lamar Jackson’s yards per attempt when pressured by season:
- 2023: 8.7 yards
- 2024: 6.6 yards
Lamar Jackson’s yards per attempt when not pressured by season:
- 2023: 7.8 yards
- 2024: 9.8 yards
Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts. If you believe that what we saw last week from Buffalo was an aberration, I think you can play Jackson with the utmost confidence.
I loved what we saw from Todd Monken’s script last week, though I fear that it was more matchup-driven than predictive. After an initial Derrick Henry run and a completed pass, Jackson carried the ball on five straight snaps. If they bring a similar script to the table this week, I think they loosen up Buffalo’s secondary and pave the way for their QB to be fantasy’s top performer this weekend.
There are naturally two sides to that coin. If Monken elects to bloody the nose of the home team with Henry early and often, we could be looking at a low-volume game from Jackson that will make paying off his DFS price tag difficult.
We saw the reigning MVP control the Week 4 meeting (14-of-19 for 156 yards and two touchdowns alongside 54 rushing yards and another score), counting numbers that would have been more impressive if it was more competitive.
I do think this game comes down to the wire; that is why the two QBs in this game sit atop my rankings. I’m expecting Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels to garner more ownership this weekend, and that opens me up to at least match the field in terms of exposure to Jackson.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Lamar Jackson’s Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Sunday, Jackson is projected to score 26 fantasy points in the Divisional Round. This includes 267.2 passing yards, 1.9 passing touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions. It also includes 11.3 rushing attempts for 68.2 yards and 0.3 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Buffalo Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
However, the Bills were able to overwhelm the Broncos in the Wild Card round following an opening drive touchdown. Buffalo had a strong run defense all year (sixth in EPA per rush), and that came through with the team's fourth-best EPA per rush (0.27).
However, the leaky pass defense that ranked 26th in EPA per dropback also played at a well above-average level. Buffalo averaged 0.18 defensive EPA per dropback vs. the Broncos, the team's sixth-best showing of the season.
The Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo has met that threshold against lesser competition but will be challenged this week against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, as well as in a potential AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Lamar Jackson’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (vs. BAL)
2) Lamar Jackson | BAL (at BUF)
3) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at DET)
4) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. LAR)
5) Jared Goff | DET (vs. WAS)
6) Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs. HOU)
7) Matthew Stafford | LAR (at PHI)
8) C.J. Stroud | HOU (at KC)
Ravens at Bills Trends and Insights
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Lamar Jackson was the MVP in 2019. The next season ...
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 179 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Advanced to play a 13-win Bills team
Jackson was the MVP in 2023. This season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 175 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Will play a 13-win Bills team
QB: Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts.
Offense: Over their past five games (all wins), Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 40.8% of their drives (they were one of the elite offenses prior to this run with a 33.3% rate).
Defense: Opponents are 0-of-6 on fourth downs against the Ravens over the past four games (prior: 12-of-23).
Fantasy: On Saturday, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have four games in a season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns when he was 30+ years of age.
Betting: Baltimore has covered six of eight road games after failing to do so in the season opener at Arrowhead.
Buffalo Bills
Team: All four of Buffalo’s losses this season have come following a blowout result the week prior.
QB: Excluding the one-snap Week 18, Josh Allen is 13-of-16 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions on third down over his past two games.
Offense: The Bills have not committed a turnover in six of seven games since their Week 12 bye.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to score a TD on all four of their red zone trips in their Week 4 meeting – they’ve allowed two red zone scores on six trips over their past three games (Denver was 0-of-1).
Fantasy: The Bills didn’t lead for a single second of the first game with the Ravens – James Cook’s production over expectation this season is 16.4% higher when playing from ahead as opposed to behind.
Betting: The Bills have rotated covering with not covering in seven straight games (they covered easily against the Broncos on Sunday).
