The Baltimore Ravens will face the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Mark Andrews.
Is Mark Andrews Playing vs. the Bills?
Andrews is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any unexpected setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Ravens’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Mark Andrews in the Divisional Round?
What Mark Andrews is, is no secret — it’s identifying him as such that the public is having a hard time doing.
Early in the season, the sentiment was that he was “washed” and done being a fantasy asset.
Late in the season, the sentiment shifted to him returning to the peak of his powers and a strong weekly option that must be trusted.
Culture today encourages us to take strong stands and only strong stands. From coaches’ fourth-down play-calling to politicians to diets, our culture tells us that you’re either all in on a cause or all out with no middle ground.
There’s a time and place for strong stands (I made plenty of them in this article), but not all situations are created equal. In Andrews’ case, isn’t it possible that he’s just ordinary? That he, like so many players at the position, essentially is a glorified anytime-touchdown bet?
Andrews’ fantasy production since Week 12:
- PPR points via TDs: 47.3
- PPR points otherwise: 46.8
During the regular season, Isaiah Likely scored 40.8% of his points via touchdown receptions, essentially occupying a similar role on an offense that wants to run the ball but at a fraction of the price and ownership.
There is no question that you’re going to have to think outside of the box to win good money this weekend, that’s just the nature of short slates. I think the Ravens are built to hang a big number on the Bills, and that won’t be a unique take, but I think the ownership is going to pile up for Derrick Henry.
The King can have his moments, but if we successfully chase a touchdown from the tight end position in Baltimore, that takes food off Henry’s plate and gives us a leverage spot. Buffalo has average red-zone numbers for the season as a whole, but their recent struggles have me thinking that they stack the box to force the Ravens to score less comfortably.
Bills’ red-zone defense, 2024:
- Weeks 1-9: 46.9% TD rate
- Since: 66.7% TD rate
I’m going to vary my exposure, but I’m going to be picking that Buffalo scab with a Baltimore pass catcher in most of them. My initial lean is to rely on ownership to drive where I go with my first click, and I anticipate the difference in roster popularity to be greater than the difference in my mean projections at the tight end position.
Roster Andrews if you want to stay level with the field and try to win elsewhere. Roster Likely if you want to roster chalky RB/WR and need some cheap leverage.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Mark Andrews’ Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Sunday, Andrews is projected to score 17.5 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 6.2 receptions for 74.9 yards and 0.6 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Buffalo Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
However, the Bills were able to overwhelm the Broncos in the Wild Card round following an opening drive touchdown. Buffalo had a strong run defense all year (sixth in EPA per rush), and that came through with the team's fourth-best EPA per rush (0.27).
However, the leaky pass defense that ranked 26th in EPA per dropback also played at a well above-average level. Buffalo averaged 0.18 defensive EPA per dropback vs. the Broncos, the team's sixth-best showing of the season.
The Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo has met that threshold against lesser competition but will be challenged this week against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, as well as in a potential AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Mark Andrews’ Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round TE PPR Rankings
1) Sam LaPorta | DET (vs. WAS)
2) Travis Kelce | KC (vs. HOU)
3) Mark Andrews | BAL (at BUF)
4) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. LAR)
5) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs. BAL)
6) Zach Ertz | WAS (at DET)
7) Isaiah Likely | BAL (at BUF)
8) Dalton Schultz | HOU (at KC)
9) Noah Gray | KC (vs. HOU)
10) Tyler Higbee | LAR (at PHI)
11) Dawson Knox | BUF (vs. BAL)
12) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. LAR)
13) Cade Stover | HOU (at KC)
14) Colby Parkinson | LAR (at PHI)
15) Brock Wright | DET (vs. WAS)
16) John Bates | WAS (at DET)
17) Charlie Kolar | BAL (at BUF)
18) Davis Allen | LAR (at PHI)
19) Hunter Long | LAR (at PHI)
20) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at DET)
21) Shane Zylstra | DET (vs. WAS)
22) Peyton Hendershot | KC (vs. HOU)
23) Quintin Morris | BUF (vs. BAL)
Ravens at Bills Trends and Insights
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Lamar Jackson was the MVP in 2019. The next season ...
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 179 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Advanced to play a 13-win Bills team
Jackson was the MVP in 2023. This season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 175 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Will play a 13-win Bills team
QB: Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts.
Offense: Over their past five games (all wins), Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 40.8% of their drives (they were one of the elite offenses prior to this run with a 33.3% rate).
Defense: Opponents are 0-of-6 on fourth downs against the Ravens over the past four games (prior: 12-of-23).
Fantasy: On Saturday, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have four games in a season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns when he was 30+ years of age.
Betting: Baltimore has covered six of eight road games after failing to do so in the season opener at Arrowhead.
Buffalo Bills
Team: All four of Buffalo’s losses this season have come following a blowout result the week prior.
QB: Excluding the one-snap Week 18, Josh Allen is 13-of-16 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions on third down over his past two games.
Offense: The Bills have not committed a turnover in six of seven games since their Week 12 bye.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to score a TD on all four of their red zone trips in their Week 4 meeting – they’ve allowed two red zone scores on six trips over their past three games (Denver was 0-of-1).
Fantasy: The Bills didn’t lead for a single second of the first game with the Ravens – James Cook’s production over expectation this season is 16.4% higher when playing from ahead as opposed to behind.
Betting: The Bills have rotated covering with not covering in seven straight games (they covered easily against the Broncos on Sunday).
