The Buffalo Bills will face the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Josh Allen.
Is Josh Allen Playing vs. the Ravens?
Allen was not listed on the injury report this week. Barring any last-minute setbacks, he is expected to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Josh Allen in the Divisional Round?
Josh Allen picked apart a strong Broncos defense last weekend (76.9% completion rate, his highest since posting a 78.3% rate in Week 1 against the Cardinals) and faces a less imposing secondary in the Divisional Round.
Allen was phenomenal in the Wild Card win. He posted his eighth straight playoff game with multiple passing touchdowns or a rushing score and did it in a very mature way.
Target distribution on Allen’s first 12 throws vs. Denver, 2024 Wild Card:
- Khalil Shakir: three targets
- Dawson Knox: two targets
- Curtis Samuel: two targets
- Dalton Kincaid: two targets
- Amari Cooper: two targets
- Keon Coleman: one target
The production was interesting to me on a few levels. On one hand, I like his willingness to take what the defense was giving him. On the other, we saw flashes of aggression that differed from last season. now I’m wondering if it’s the beginning of a trend:
- 2024: 8.3 regular season aDOT (2024 Wild Card: 9.2)
- 2023: 8.7 regular season aDOT (2023 playoffs: 6.3)
The Ravens were vulnerable down the field to open the season, but they’ve tweaked their depth chart and have been a different defense recently.
Ravens’ yards allowed per deep pass, 2024:
- Weeks 1-11: 14.1 (fourth most; league average: 11.7)
- Weeks 12-18: 6.9 (second fewest; league average: 10.9)
Buffalo had the ball for nearly 42 minutes against Denver. I don’t think they have a shot at doing that against Baltimore. That said, Allen doesn’t need a high volume of plays to leave his fingerprints all over the DFS leaderboard.
Right now, I have Allen penciled in as my highest-exposure QB, opting to believe that we are in the midst of a transformational year as a passer (recent example: 13-of-16 with two touchdowns on third downs over his past two games, ignoring the one-snap Week 18) rather than fearing Lamar Jackson’s ability to keep him off the field.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Josh Allen’s Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Sunday, Allen is projected to score 26.4 fantasy points in the Divisional Round. This includes 277.5 passing yards, 2.2 passing touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions. It also includes 7.4 rushing attempts for 40.6 yards and 0.6 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Ravens' Defense
The 2023 Ravens led the league in scoring defense but only ranked 10th in Defense+. This year's Ravens fell to ninth in scoring defense but fared better in Defense+.
That improved form held true in the Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. While Baltimore's 75.3 (C) grade was nothing special, that's usually all this offense needs to win. The Ravens were able to exploit Russell Wilson's tendency to hold the ball, averaging their second-highest sack rate (11.8%) of the season.
Since moving Kyle Hamilton to safety in Week 11, the Ravens rank first in points per drive, first in EPA per dropback, first in third-down defense, and first in red-zone defense (including playoffs).
Paired with a run defense that has been elite all season, Baltimore suddenly looks like one of the scariest No. 3 seeds in recent memory. With the offense playing at an elite level led by presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson, Baltimore could be better equipped to make the Super Bowl than last year's team, even without the advantage of the top seed.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Josh Allen’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (vs. BAL)
2) Lamar Jackson | BAL (at BUF)
3) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at DET)
4) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. LAR)
5) Jared Goff | DET (vs. WAS)
6) Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs. HOU)
7) Matthew Stafford | LAR (at PHI)
8) C.J. Stroud | HOU (at KC)
Ravens at Bills Trends and Insights
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Lamar Jackson was the MVP in 2019. The next season ...
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 179 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Advanced to play a 13-win Bills team
Jackson was the MVP in 2023. This season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 175 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Will play a 13-win Bills team
QB: Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts.
Offense: Over their past five games (all wins), Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 40.8% of their drives (they were one of the elite offenses prior to this run with a 33.3% rate).
Defense: Opponents are 0-of-6 on fourth downs against the Ravens over the past four games (prior: 12-of-23).
Fantasy: On Saturday, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have four games in a season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns when he was 30+ years of age.
Betting: Baltimore has covered six of eight road games after failing to do so in the season opener at Arrowhead.
Buffalo Bills
Team: All four of Buffalo’s losses this season have come following a blowout result the week prior.
QB: Excluding the one-snap Week 18, Josh Allen is 13-of-16 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions on third down over his past two games.
Offense: The Bills have not committed a turnover in six of seven games since their Week 12 bye.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to score a TD on all four of their red zone trips in their Week 4 meeting – they’ve allowed two red zone scores on six trips over their past three games (Denver was 0-of-1).
Fantasy: The Bills didn’t lead for a single second of the first game with the Ravens – James Cook’s production over expectation this season is 16.4% higher when playing from ahead as opposed to behind.
Betting: The Bills have rotated covering with not covering in seven straight games (they covered easily against the Broncos on Sunday).
