On Sunday, Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens and Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills will square off in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. All eyes will be on the two Most Valuable Player frontrunners, and while this showdown won’t impact the MVP race since voting has concluded, it has brought the debate front and center.
Who has had the better season: Jackson or Allen? Let’s delve into the numbers.
Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen: By the Numbers
Jackson led the league in EPA per dropback (0.31), net yards per pass attempt (8.5), touchdown-to-interception ratio (10.3), and tied for the most total touchdowns (45, including 41 passing and 4 rushing). Jackson also ranked first in the NFL for performances from a clean pocket and second when pressured. Simply put, the best way to counter Jackson this season has been to sustain offensive drives — because he’s had every answer to the test.
Allen’s 0.24 EPA per dropback ranked third in the NFL, while he finished fourth in EPA per dropback from a clean pocket (0.37) and third-best when pressured (-0.05). The only notable area where Allen fell short of the top five was his third-down conversion percentage, ranking sixth at 44.4%. Comparatively, the Ravens converted at a similar rate under Jackson (45%), which could be a key differentiator for those advocating for Jackson’s MVP candidacy.
Further strengthening Jackson’s MVP case are the significant strides made by Baltimore’s offense this season. While Derrick Henry’s contributions are undeniable, effectively working alongside a co-star is a skill in its own right. When comparing recent offensive development, Baltimore’s progress under Jackson’s leadership has been far superior to that of Buffalo’s offense.
Allen’s MVP case is more straightforward. The Bills secured the AFC’s second seed despite an offseason where their top two receivers departed, finishing one game ahead of a Ravens team bolstered by the addition of Henry.
Allen’s counting stats tell the story. In just over three months, he had three games with multiple passing and rushing touchdowns — an achievement matched only by Cam Newton and Steve Young in NFL history (Otto Graham joins the list if postseason games are included).
The MVP award is decided by a vote, which introduces subjective factors like preseason expectations. Back in August, concerns swirled about Allen’s supporting cast, whether he would shoulder too much responsibility, and if his aggressive playing style would undermine a team in its championship window.
That narrative didn’t play out. Instead, Allen matured as a passer, maintaining his explosive playmaking ability while showing greater control and efficiency. The chunk gains that have defined his career didn’t disappear—they became a staple of Buffalo’s success.
Allen’s athleticism is what sets him apart, and this season, he’s embraced his role as a true dual-threat quarterback more than ever before. His ability to make plays with both his arm and legs has been instrumental in elevating the Bills to another level, making their offense one of the most dynamic in the league.
As for the concerns about a lack of explosiveness? Forget them. Allen’s yards per deep pass are up 8.6% this season compared to last year, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio has climbed to 3.0 (compared to 1.1 in 2023). Last season, he went 0-of-6 on deep passes in the playoff loss to the Chiefs, but his improved efficiency in this area has reshaped the perception of both Allen and the Bills. This more refined version of Allen has many, including potential MVP voters, viewing Buffalo as a greater threat to win it all.
Fair or not, not all “MVP competition” is created equal. While Jackson’s advanced numbers far surpass what he achieved a season ago, he’s still contending with the “reigning MVP” narrative, whereas Allen faces a different set of perceptions — coming off a career-high in interceptions and a reputation for being reckless.
If these two had produced identical stat lines this season, Allen winning the award would likely be a foregone conclusion, given the preseason expectations. The fact that Jackson has made this a genuine debate, despite Allen’s historic peaks and better winning percentage, is a testament to just how remarkable Jackson’s 2024 campaign has been.
QB+ Look at the MVP Race
PFN has a metric called QB+ that assigns a letter grade to every quarterback performance and creates a score for each QB that factors in numerous stats, including success rate when pressured, third-down conversion rate, pocket production, and clutch performance.
Across the regular season, Jackson’s QB+ performance surpassed even his remarkable 2019 MVP season. Meanwhile, Allen ranked as a top-five producer in most of the key metrics evaluated in QB+.
In our metrics, Jackson (+6.4% QB+ over expectation) holds a clear edge over Allen (+2.7%) and has maintained that advantage for much of the season. Based on this, Jackson would earn our vote, though the award isn’t ours to decide.
Ultimately, both quarterbacks would undoubtedly prefer a win on Sunday night over individual accolades, but this MVP race stands out as one of the most compelling in recent memory.
Let’s examine Jackson and Allen’s QB+ evaluation.
Josh Allen
- QB+ Ranking: 3rd
Despite some eye-catching performances on the field, the individual game numbers do not show much dominance from Allen. He has yet to grade above a B+ in any game this season, with his best outing being the 17th overall single-game performance. That was back in Week 3, with his highest single-game performances since then being 35th and 37th overall in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively.
The overall body of work sees him as one of three quarterbacks getting an A grade of some sort. Intriguingly, 2024 was only tied for his second-best career season, matching his 2022 numbers but falling short of his A+ performance back in 2020.
For the season, Allen is inside the top five for most of the statistics we look at in QB+. His 0.24 EPA/DB ranks third in the NFL, and he’s fourth in both EPA/DB from a clean pocket (0.37) and third-best when pressured (-0.05). The only statistic of note where Allen is not in the top five is his third-down conversion percentage (sixth, 44.4%).
When assessing Allen’s MVP credentials, there are a few things to look at. Firstly, he doesn’t have Jackson’s incredible season-long numbers, and he lacks top-tier single-game performances. Allen also has as many D+ or lower-graded performances as Jackson. Additionally, Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff has higher full-season numbers than Allen and a higher floor and ceiling when it comes to single-game performances.
Lamar Jackson
- QB+ Ranking: 1st
MVP voting is already done, and by our metrics, Jackson’s body of work during the regular season should see him taking home the award for a third time.
Across the regular season, his QB+ number is even better than his incredible 2019 MVP season. Jackson leads the league in EPA/DB (0.31), nYPA (8.5), TD/INT rate (10.3), and tied for the league total touchdowns (45). He’s also first in the NFL in performances from a clean pocket (0.51 EPA/DB) and second when pressured (-0.00).
Although Jackson’s performance at the end of the season hasn’t been as dominant as we might have hoped, he’s still a top-five quarterback over the last four weeks of the regular season. Across the entire season, Jackson has three games graded as an A- or above and just two graded below a C-.
| Weekly QB+ | Lamar Jackson | Josh Allen |
| Week 1 | 74.8 (C) | 87.5 (B+) |
| Week 2 | 74.8 (C) | 80.6 (B-) |
| Week 3 | 89.3 (B+) | 89.8 (B+) |
| Week 4 | 83.6 (B) | 65.6 (D) |
| Week 5 | 82.6 (B-) | 67.1 (D+) |
| Week 6 | 87.9 (B+) | 82.9 (B-) |
| Week 7 | 92.6 (A-) | 83.6 (B) |
| Week 8 | 77.1 (C+) | 82.6 (B-) |
| Week 9 | 93.0 (A) | 76.1 (C) |
| Week 10 | 90.7 (A-) | 73.8 (C) |
| Week 11 | 65.5 (D) | 80.7 (B-) |
| Week 12 | 87.6 (B+) | BYE |
| Week 13 | 76.1 (C) | 84.6 (B) |
| Week 14 | BYE | 86.5 (B) |
| Week 15 | 95.2 (A) | 86.4 (B) |
| Week 16 | 67.9 (D+) | 71.9 (C-) |
| Week 17 | 85.6 (B) | 82.8 (B-) |
| Week 18 | 75.9 (C) | – |
