With the Minnesota Vikings’ upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night, Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah have a tough decision to make with starting quarterback Sam Darnold:
Do the Vikings move on from the 27-year-old gunslinger and focus on building the team around the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft J.J. McCarthy in 2025?
Is Interest Still High on Sam Darnold, or Is J.J. McCarthy the Future?
McCarthy suffered an injury during his preseason debut against the Las Vegas Raiders on Aug. 10 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Darnold started the game and played one series, giving way to McCarthy to handle the rest of the first quarter and much of the game.
McCarthy threw an interception on his third attempt, but he ultimately completed 11 of his 17 passes for 188 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He demonstrated poise and athleticism by moving around in the pocket and scrambling twice for 18 yards, helping him avoid sacks.
Unfortunately, McCarthy’s season-ending injury overshadowed his on-field production. It’s still unclear when exactly he injured his knee. Two days after the game, McCarthy missed the Vikings’ night practice.
Then, the team announced that he would undergo a procedure to determine why he was experiencing discomfort in his right knee. Ultimately, the exploratory surgery became a season-ending meniscus repair, which landed McCarthy on injured reserve.
Now, at the end of the 2024-25 NFL season, and in light of Darnold’s poor performance in Week 18 and the Wild Card Round, what will the Vikings’ offseason look like?
According to NFL analyst Jordan Schultz, Darnold is still drawing interest around the league despite back-to-back below-average performances to end the season. Schultz believes in all likelihood that Darnold played his last snap in Minnesota, however. The NFL insider thinks the Vikings will let Darnold walk and let McCarthy and Daniel Jones compete for the starting spot.
I believe Sam Darnold will still draw real interest this offseason — and a little competition can quickly drive up his price — but I have a hard time seeing him back in Minnesota.
J.J. McCarthy is the future.
📺 @TheHerd with @colincowherd pic.twitter.com/PcZRBCWp2F
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) January 17, 2025
Darnold, a former No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, elevated his play to a career high this season. Once considered a candidate for upward of a competitive $50 million/year deal, Darnold finished the season with 35 touchdowns and 4,319 passing yards. He ended the season ranked fifth in touchdowns and passing yards while only throwing 12 interceptions.
Under O’Connell, Darnold enjoyed a career campaign in Minnesota on a one-year, $10 million deal. The quarterback posted personal bests in numerous categories, including completion percentage (66.2%) and passer rating (102.5). Also, he made his first Pro Bowl while helping the Vikings to 14 victories.
Overall, the last two weeks have been rough for Darnold, to say the least. Two bad performances under the bright lights of what could have been two playoff games are playing a major impact on Darnold’s free agency. That is somewhat unfair on a quarterback, who was ranked 12th overall in the regular season in PFN’s QB+ metric (79.0).
Some potential landing spots for Darnold in free agency could include QB-desperate teams like the New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, and Cleveland Browns, some teams looking for QB competition like the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts, or some teams that are at a QB crossroads like the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets.
“Two bad performances under the bright lights of what was essentially two playoff games are going to have a major impact on how Darnold is viewed this offseason, especially with fans and media outside of those who regularly saw him play. That is somewhat unfair on a quarterback who was ranked 12th overall in the regular season,” PFN’s Ben Rolfe wrote in PFN’s QB rankings.
“If the narrative that develops this offseason is that Darnold should not be a starter anywhere, that is somewhat unfair. He entered the playoffs with just four performances graded as D+ or below compared to six B- or above grades. The performances in those two big moments are certainly a concern, and there are other poor outings this season as well.
“Darnold’s overall numbers are intriguing. He finished eighth in terms of nYPA (7.3) despite only getting 4.9 YAC/Cp (30th). He was 11th from a clean pocket (0.29 EPA/DB) and 19th when pressured (-0.32 EPA/DB). Darnold finished inside the top 10 in passing yards per game (254.1) with 35 passing touchdowns. However, he also threw 12 interceptions.
“The one thing that does raise some alarm bells is that Darnold has had issues inside the opposing half on a handful of occasions. He finished the season ranked 30th with a -0.08 EPA/DB in those situations. However, he was generally fine in other clutch situations and converted 39.3% of third-down opportunities (15th).”
