The NFL’s Divisional Round is here! As we progress on the road to Super Bowl 59, eight teams remain in the quest for the Lombardi Trophy. This will be the first time we get to see the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs play after the No. 1 seeds got a bye last week. Who else is playing and when can you expect to see them?
NFL Games Today: A Return of Thursday Night Football?
Thursday Night Football played its last game of the 2024 NFL season back in Week 17 on Thursday, December 26, 2024. It was what many would refer to as a “stinker”. The Seattle Seahawks defeated the Chicago Bears 6-3. Now, the NFL world turns to the Divisional Round. Let’s take a look at the current seedings, the updated bracket, and the schedule for the next round of the playoffs.
NFC Playoff Seeds and Standings
1. Detroit Lions (15-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) – Eliminated
4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-3) – Eliminated
6. Washington Commanders (12-5)
7. Green Bay Packers (11-6) – Eliminated
AFC Playoff Seeds and Standings
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (10-7)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) – Eliminated
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) – Eliminated
7. Denver Broncos (10-7) – Eliminated
NFL Playoff Dates and Divisional Round Schedule
Saturday, Jan. 18
- Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions: 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
Sunday, Jan. 19
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles: 3 p.m. ET (NBC)
- Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills: 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Conference Championship Round
Sunday, Jan. 26
- NFC Championship Game: 3 p.m.
- AFC Championship Game: 6:30 p.m.
Super Bowl 59
- Date: Feb. 9, 2025
- Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV: Fox
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans have yet to win more than three games in a row during the C.J. Stroud era– they’ll need to run their win streak to four games to reach the Super Bowl.
QB: Stroud had a 27-yard rush against the Chargers – prior to that, he didn’t have 27 rushing yards in a game since Halloween.
Offense: The Texans bet heavily on Stroud early, part of a theme during the second half of their season:
Texans: Highest First-Half Dropback Rates in 2024
- Saturday vs. Chargers: 78.8%
- Week 16 at Chiefs: 77.1%
- Week 12 vs. Titans: 73.9%
- Week 15 vs. Dolphins: 73.9%
- Week 17 vs. Ravens: 71%
Defense: Houston posted their second-best Defense+ grade in our database (since 2019) Their 88.7 grade was 5.6 points better than their best showing during the regular season.
Fantasy: Joe Mixon has recorded multiple red zone touches in 13 straight games.
Betting: The Texans opened the season 0-4 ATS – they are 8-5-1 since with covers against the Bill and Lions as a part of that.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Kansas City had a first-round bye on their way to a title in 2022 and there were no signs of rust – they scored in each of their first three possessions and allowed just 5.1 yards per play in the first half in the divisional round.
QB: Patrick Mahomes posted an 84.8 grade in our QB+ metric this season, 10th best in the NFL (below his career norm, but ahead of his 81.5 from a season ago).
Offense: Kansas City settled for a field goal on just 13.4% of their drives in 2022 – their rate was 18.4% in 2023 and 18.9% this year.
Defense: In Weeks 15-17, understanding that this team rested most of their playmakers in Week 18, the Chiefs allowed a touchdown on just two of seven opponent red zone drives.
Fantasy: DeAndre Hopkins has topped out at a 63.1% snap share with Kansas City and now has to navigate a healthy Hollywood Brown who has been targeted on 44.1% of his routes in two games back.
Betting: The Chiefs had a losing ATS record in the 2022 season before going on to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs had a negative average cover margin in 2023 before going on to win the Super Bowl. They did both of those things this past regular season.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions Preview
Washington Commanders
Team: Since the start of 2022, the Lions have a 73.8% win percentage against teams without a true weapon of a runner under center and a 54.5% mark when facing such an asset – Jayden Daniels certainly falls into that second bucket of QB.
QB: On Sunday night, Daniels completed 58.3% of his pressured passes with two scores and zero interceptions (regular season: 46.4% complete with 1.6 touchdowns-per-interception).
Offense: The Commanders scored 62.5% of their drives in the Wild Card Round and are nearly unstoppable when having success even close to that level (13-2 when scoring on over one-third of their offensive possessions).
Defense: Washington posted a 66.7 Def+ grade on Sunday night, their fourth-worst effort of the season. That said, two of those four instances have come against the Buccaneers, making that potentially a tough matchup more than something to fear moving into the Divisional Round.
Fantasy: If you extrapolate Terry McLaurin’s last seven games for a 17-game season:
- 100 receptions (143 targets)
- 1,127 yards
- 19 touchdowns
- 329.1 PPR fantasy points
Justin Jefferson was WR2 in total PPR points this season with 317.5.
Betting: Since Week 11, Washington is 1-3 ATS against the NFC East and 3-1 ATS against the rest of the NFL
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions scored 41 points against the Chargers last season coming off their bye. They hung 47 on the Cowboys this season and are now coming off another bye week.
QB: Jared Goff finished the season with a 93.2 grade in our QB+ metric, the 11th-best mark in our six years of tracking (second best this season, trailing Lamar Jackson).
Offense: The Lions ranked third in fourth down conversions during the regular season (22) and tied for seven in fourth down conversion rate (66.7%).
Defense: Detroit’s offense gets the attention, but their defense, for the season, ranked seventh in turnover rate and red zone efficiency.
Fantasy: The best games over PPR fantasy expectation during the second half of the season, minimum 20 touches:
- Week 12 Saquon Barkley (at LAR): +127.1%
- Week 16 Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN): +124.1%
- Week 18 Gibbs (vs. MIN): +114.4%
- Week 17 Gibbs (at SF): +77.9%
- Week 9 Derrick Henry (vs. DEN): +77%
Betting: The Lions have covered 70% of their games since Dan Campbell took over (49-21-1), easily the best mark in the league (the Bengals at 61.6% are the only other team at 58%).
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles Preview
Los Angeles Rams
Team: Through five weeks, the remaining four teams in the AFC were 1-2-3-4 in the conference standings. In the NFC, the Vikings were sitting atop of the conference (5-0) while the Rams were tied with the Panthers in the basement (1-4).
QB: Matthew Stafford was a slow starter during the regular season (35th of 36 qualifiers in first-quarter completion percentage), but that wasn’t the case against the Vikings (11/12 for 124 yards and a touchdown).
Offense: Even in the impressive win, the Rams struggled on third down (two-of-10) — they’ve failed to convert over 25% of their third down opportunities in seven different games this season.
Defense: Only once during the regular season did the Rams record more than four sacks. Monday was a different story as they tied the NFL record for most sacks in a playoff game (nine).
The Rams had 6️⃣ sacks in the first half vs. MIN, the most in a first half of a playoff game since at least 2000.
This is also the most by any team in a playoff half since the Rams also had 6 sacks in the second half of Super Bowl LVI vs. CIN. 👀 pic.twitter.com/bbQqpgksDD
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 14, 2025
Fantasy: Cooper Kupp has earned just 10 targets on 87 routes run (five receptions) over his past four games.
Betting: The Rams have played four games against playoff teams since their Week 6 bye — they’ve scored an average of 30.3 points in those games.
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: Philadelphia won 14 games during the regular season, the fourth time in franchise history that they’ve won at least a baker’s dozen – they represented the NFC in the Super Bowl in each of the previous three seasons (2004, 2017, and 2022).
QB: Jalen Hurts posted a 69.6 QB+ on Sunday against the Packers, the third lowest since 2019 in a playoff victory (only Jimmy Garoppolo in 2021 and Trevor Lawrence in 2022 were able to advance despite a lesser grade).
Offense: The NFL average for points per drive is 2.06 – the Eagles haven’t been held under 2.00 points per possession since September.
Defense: The Packers picked up 53.8% of their third downs on Sunday, the second highest rate produced by an opponent against the Eagles this season, topped only by the Bengals (Week 8).
Fantasy: A.J. Brown turned 24 routes into just a single catch – his 0.42 yards per route run was the sixth worst mark of his career. Safe to call that the outlier and not the norm, as this has been his best season in that metric (2.87).
Betting: The Eagles are 8-2 ATS since 2005 in non-Wild Card playoff games (six of those covers came by more than seven points).
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Preview
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Lamar Jackson was the MVP in 2019. The next season:
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 179 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Advanced to play a 13-win Bills team
Jackson was the MVP in 2023. This season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 175 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Will play a 13-win Bills team
QB: Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts.
Offense: Over their past five games (all wins), Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 40.8% of their drives (they were one of the elite offenses prior to this run with a 33.3% rate).
Defense: Opponents are 0-of-6 on fourth downs against the Ravens over the past four games (prior: 12-of-23).
Fantasy: On Saturday, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have four games in a season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns when he was 30+ years of age.
Betting: Baltimore has covered six of eight road games after failing to do so in the season opener at Arrowhead.
Buffalo Bills
Team: All four of Buffalo’s losses this season have come following a blowout result the week prior.
QB: Excluding the one-snap Week 18, Josh Allen is 13-of-16 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions on third down over his past two games.
Offense: The Bills have not committed a turnover in six of seven games since their Week 12 bye.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to score a TD on all four of their red zone trips in their Week 4 meeting – they’ve allowed two red zone scores on six trips over their past three games (Denver was 0-of-1).
Fantasy: The Bills didn’t lead for a single second of the first game with the Ravens – James Cook’s production over expectation this season is 16.4% higher when playing from ahead as opposed to behind.
Betting: The Bills have rotated covering with not covering in seven straight games (they covered easily against the Broncos on Sunday).