Despite being home underdogs, the Texans were able to get by the Chargers. But as 8.5-point underdogs against a team that has been in the AFC Championship Game six straight seasons, Houston's road likely ends here.
Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels should be immensely proud of the season they've had. The Commanders are going to be contenders for years to come. While they do have a puncher's chance to upset the Lions, it's extremely unlikely. Even if they do get past the Lions, their path is too difficult to rank them any higher than this.
If there is a legitimate dark horse candidate this year to make a run, it's the Rams. They have the experience and are better than their record suggests. Nevertheless, going through the Eagles and likely the Lions on the road to even reach the Super Bowl is a tough ask.
The Bills are better than the fifth best team remaining. Unfortunately, their path to the Super Bowl involves taking down a superior Ravens team, then almost certainly going into Arrowhead to defeat Josh Allen's nemesis, Patrick Mahomes. Then, they also have to beat the NFC team.
The winner of the Bills-Ravens game would actually be third on this list. The problem is they have to go through each other in what is projected to be closest game of the weekend. The Ravens have the talent to win it all, but toppling the Bills, Chiefs, and Lions/Eagles in consecutive games is no easy feat.
The Eagles would be below the Bills and Ravens if not for the fact that their path through the Rams in Philly is undoubtedly easier than the Bills and Ravens having to battle each other. The Eagles have the talent to beat anyone and their path is easier than the two AFC teams directly behind them.
The Lions are well rested and the path to the Super Bowl goes through Detroit. The Commanders are spunky, but the Lions are the biggest favorite of the weekend. They'd get the Eagles or Rams at home, before having to go through just one of the three elite AFC teams.
For five of the past six years, the path to the Super Bowl has gone through Arrowhead. The Chiefs have the easiest Divisional Round matchup, while the Bills and Ravens take out each other. Most importantly, until proven otherwise, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite every year.
