The final game of the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend is a battle between two NFC powerhouses. A Wild Card matchup that includes the first-ever 14 win team, both these squads are looking to punch their tickets to the Divisional Round, where they would be set to do battle against the Detroit Lions.
You can check out the updated NFL playoff bracket here. Additionally, if you want a recap of yesterday’s games, make sure to take a look at our Wild Card Round results.
Who Plays in Monday Night Football Tonight?
- Game: Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Location: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ
The Vikings rank 15th in EPA (expected points added), 12th in success rate, second in explosive passing rate, and 18th in explosive rushing rate. Outside of the absurd number of big plays, the Vikings’ offense has been quite average. On scripted plays, the Vikings rank sixth in EPA but defenses have adjusted well to Darnold and the Vikings this season.
Despite a ranking of 27th in defensive EPA, the Rams have been vastly improving in large part due to having such young playmakers on their defense. Five of 11 starters are in their first or second year in the league. Bill Barnwell adds to this analysis by calculating the average age of NFL teams weighted by the number of snaps from each player. This allows us to get a look at which teams are performing with veteran help versus young teams.
The Rams have an average age on defense of 26.3 years old, good for 26th-oldest (seventh-youngest). Since Week 13, the Rams’ defense ranks 14th in EPA, showcasing their clear improvement.
Unfortunately, the explosive passing has still been a clear weakness of this team. They rank 28th in passes of 20 or more yards allowed per game. But as aforementioned, Minnesota ranks second offensively in this stat — not only this, but they also attempt them at a very high rate.
Darnold is tied for sixth in most passing attempts of 20 or more yards this season. On those passes, he ranks second in completion percentage (51.5%), first in yards (1,192), first in yards per attempt (17.5), tied for second in touchdowns (10), and tied for third in big-time throws (22).
On the other side of the ball, Los Angeles is ranked 13th in EPA and 10th in success rate. They don’t create explosive plays well, ranking 17th and 29th in passing and rushing, respectively. This offense ranks 13th in terms of standard deviation in EPA, meaning they are inconsistent. Four of their games this season have been bottom-25th-percentile performances, while six games are above an 80th-percentile performance.
MORE: NFL Divisional Round Power Rankings
The Rams also struggle with pressure, ranking 23rd in EPA when under pressure. It’s important to note that Minnesota will definitely have to tone down their blitz rate, as Stafford and the Rams are ninth in EPA against the blitz. Although Minnesota leads the league in blitz rate, they are fourth in pressure generated with just four pass rushers.
Situationally, Minnesota has a huge edge in play-action, ranking fourth in EPA while the Rams’ defense ranks 31st against it. If the Vikings can run the ball efficiently, this will add another aspect to their offense that would be difficult for the Rams to keep up with.
In their first matchup, the Rams were successful on first and second down. Despite only averaging 3.3 yards per rush, they went 20/27 for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. Surprisingly, the Rams went 5/7 for 81 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception on third and fourth down.
Darnold has never started a playoff game before. If defensive coordinator Chris Shula can find ways to get Jared Verse and Kobie Turner in advantageous positions, Darnold could struggle. Among 29 quarterbacks with over 100 passes under pressure, Darnold ranks 19th in EPA, 18th in sack rate, 20th in average depth of target, 16th in completion percentage, and 14th in interceptions.
I don’t think the Rams are capable of putting together as good of an offensive performance as last time. It took an outrageously efficient offensive performance on third downs for the Rams to pull off the upset. With that being said, we can turn to the Minnesota offensive line to understand why I am not completely sold.
In the first matchup, Minnesota did a poor job handling the Rams’ pass rush. They allowed a pressure on 44.8% of Darnold’s dropbacks — he went down three times. This was before the injury to Christian Darrisaw. With Darrisaw out, Cam Robinson has become the new left tackle.
What Time Is Monday Night Football Tonight?
- Date: Jan. 13, 2025
- Start time: 8 p.m. ET
TV Channel and Live Stream for Monday Night Football
- TV channels: ABC/ESPN/ESPN
- Live stream: ESPN+
Vikings Stats and Insights
- Since Christmas Eve, 2023, the Vikings have been 0-5 against teams for which Matthew Stafford has started a game and 14-1 against the other 29 teams in the NFL.
- In Week 7, Sam Darnold had as many touchdowns as interceptions in a loss where his team allowed 31 points to the Lions – he followed it up with his second-best passer rating of the season in Los Angeles against the Rams. He didn’t have any touchdowns or interceptions in Sunday’s 31-9 loss to the Lions …
- In Weeks 14-17, Minnesota averaged 2.8 points per drive (they managed just 0.8 points per drive in Detroit to wrap up the regular season).
- The Vikings have played six games against playoff teams this season – their four worst points-per-drive defensive performances have come in those contests.
- Betting: The Vikings failed to cover on Sunday night, a game that went under the total, and that’s a rare occurrence – they were 7-2 ATS in games that saw fewer points than expected.
Rams Stats and Insights
- The Rams are 2-3 in their past five home games (they’ve won five straight on the road).
- Last season, Matthew Stafford completed 53.6% of his fourth-quarter passes with five touchdowns and two interceptions. This season, he’s connected on 68.5% of his passes in the final 15 minutes with eight touchdowns against just one interception.
- Los Angeles has scored a touchdown on just five of their 14 trips to the red zone over their past four games.
- Three of the Rams’ best defensive showings this season in terms of points per drive came in December (Weeks 15-16-17).
- CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the only receivers with more yards and a higher catch rate than Puka Nacua over the past two seasons.
- Betting: Under tickets are 6-3 in Los Angeles’ past nine playoff games and have come through in each of the past three such spots.