We have reached the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, where the best eight teams will battle it out for spots in the AFC and NFC Championship Games. On the AFC side, we have the same four teams back for the second year running, but with different matchups. When it comes to the NFC, three of the four teams will be different from last year’s Divisional Round.
From a betting perspective, these games are intriguing, with two heavy favorites and a coin flip game among the three that have been decided so far. Using the Pro Football Network metrics, we will break down all the games and give our NFL Divisional Round picks and predictions.
NFL Divisional Round Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Picks are based on the lines available at DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025. In Wild Card Weekend, this article went 4-1 picking sides via teasers but was just 2-4 picking totals. Therefore, we will be more cautious about totals in the Divisional Round.
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Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Texans +340; Chiefs -440
- Total: 42.5
Somewhat surprisingly, the odds do not have this game between the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs as the most lopsided of the Divisional Round. That might be because the first matchup this season between the two was fairly close, with the Chiefs winning by just one score.
In terms of our metrics, this game has the widest margin, with the Chiefs winning in 70.1% of our simulations. Kansas City is sixth in our Power Rankings coming out of Sunday of Wild Card Weekend. Houston, meanwhile, is 18th overall and is by far the lowest-ranked of the remaining teams.
The Texans’ defensive play will give them hope. That unit dominated the Los Angeles Chargers, and it ranks seventh overall as the highest-ranking unit of the six in this game.
Houston’s problem is that its offense ranks 28th, and while we’ve seen them put together the odd good drive, they don’t do it consistently.
On Wild Card Weekend, Houston had just three drives of more than five plays. They managed just two offensive touchdowns, gave up three turnovers, and could easily have given up four if Derwin James Jr. held on in the end zone.
They’re going to have to be much more efficient against a Chiefs side that leads the league offensively on third down and scores touchdowns on over 50% of their red-zone trips.
Having clinched the No. 1 seed back on Christmas Day, Kansas City rested most of its key players in Week 18, so the Chiefs should be as healthy as possible. Kansas City finished the season ranked 12th on offense and 14th on defense. However, the Chiefs also played the 26th-toughest schedule, compared to the 20th for the Texans.
Turnovers are always crucial in the playoffs, but in this game, they might be even more so. Houston feasted on mistakes from the Chargers despite Justin Herbert being one of the most careful quarterbacks in NFL history during the regular season.
Patrick Mahomes had some turnover issues early in the year, with 11 interceptions in the first 10 games, but he hasn’t turned the ball over since the Week 11 loss to Buffalo.
As we saw this weekend, strong defensive play always gives you a chance in the playoffs, and the Texans have a very good defense. The Chiefs found success against them in Week 16 with the run game and converted on seven of their 13 third downs. Houston will need to be better in those areas defensively because the offense will struggle to win a shootout.
The sportsbook odds give Kansas City an 80.4% implied probability of winning. That is a little higher than our odds, making this a prime teaser candidate in terms of the lines.
The Chiefs should win, but they’ve only won four games all year by more than eight points. Therefore, the play here is to tease this line down to Chiefs -1.5 and pair it with another option.
Regarding the total, it’s right in the spot that our numbers project. With neither offense being convincing, you could make a case to tease it up to 48.5, but that only requires a couple of short fields late in the game to fly over. Teasing down to 36.5 is also tempting, but Houston’s offense is mediocre at best, and KC’s offense has struggled for fluency at times and could be slow starting with such a long time between games.
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Texans 17
Pick: Chiefs -1.5 in a teaser, lean over 35.5 in a teaser
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)
- Moneyline: Commanders +390; Lions -520
- Total: 55.5
The Washington Commanders’ reward for their final-second victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Wild Card Weekend is a trip to the statistically speaking most dominant team in the regular season, the Detroit Lions.
The Lions topped our Power Rankings coming out of the regular season, and no one was really even that close. The distance in our metrics between the Lions and Baltimore Ravens in second was the same as the difference between the Ravens and the Los Angeles Rams in 10th. The Commanders were just above the Rams, ranked ninth coming out of the regular season, and are now sixth-highest ranked among the remaining nine teams.
Detroit enters this game with the highest-ranked offense in the NFL, the fifth-ranked defense, and a seventh-ranked special teams, all while playing the seventh-toughest schedule. The Commanders head in with the sixth-ranked offense, the 17th-ranked defense, and the 10th-ranked special teams but have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season.
With two offenses ranked inside the top six, it would be a surprise if this game was a defensive masterclass, as the total demonstrated. The Lions have scored 30+ points in their last five games and have allowed over 30 in three of their final five. Washington’s games have been a little bit lower scoring, but two of the last five have gone over 50 points.
This game feels high at a total of 55.5, but Detroit’s games have been wild at times this season. Given the potentially cagey nature of these playoff games in the first half so far, I would lean towards the under. Yet, this game has a wide range of outcomes when it comes to the final score, and for that reason, I will probably avoid playing the total.
Our metrics give the Lions a 64.6% chance of winning, while the sportsbooks have them with an implied probability of 84.6%. Therefore, our metrics would lean towards the Commanders covering but the Lions winning.
Given the way Detroit has blown some teams out, backing Washington +9.5 is a risky proposition. Teasing the Lions down to -3.5 may well be the better play.
Prediction: Lions 30, Commanders 23
Pick: Lions -3.5 in a teaser, lean under 55.5
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
- Moneyline: Rams +205; Eagles -250
- Total: 43.5
In our second of three rematches from the 2024 NFL season, the Los Angeles Rams head on the road to face the Philadelphia Eagles. In their first meeting, the Rams’ defense was blown away by the force of the Eagles’ run game in the second half, allowing over 250 rushing yards to Squon Barkley alone.
However, it should not be forgotten that with 6:30 remaining in the third quarter, the Eagles led 20-14, and the Rams had the Eagles on a third-and-long with a chance to get the ball back. Our metrics still have the Eagles as clear favorites, winning in 63.2% of our simulations, but anyone thinking this is a foregone conclusion would be mistaken.
The Rams generally did a good job bottling up the Vikings’ run game, but Aaron Jones and Cam Akers are a long way from Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Gainwell, with Jalen Hurts in the mix for good measure. The Rams run game ranked 23rd in success rate (59.0%) and 22nd in EPA per rush (0.03) in the regular season. That has to be better this week, or they will not stand a chance in Philadelphia.
If the Rams’ defense can hold up, then their offense will always give them a chance. They scored 24 points in the first half against the Vikings before they went more conservative in the second half. The Rams’ offense finished the season ranked higher than the Eagles (11th vs. 14th). Additionally, Stafford and McVay are a fantastic veteran pairing and should not be fazed by the moment or the surroundings.
That 24th-ranked defense is the issue, especially when the Eagles bolster the second-best defense in the league. However, the Rams also played the fourth-hardest schedule in the league this year, while the Eagles played the second-easiest. That is not to say the Rams should win this game, but it should be closer than a -250 moneyline (71.4% implied probability) indicates.
The range of outcomes for this game in terms of the total is intriguing. We saw the Eagles blow the Rams out in the regular season, but 14 of those points were scored in the final three minutes of the game. This total is largely spot on where our projections have it, and 7-10 points on either side is well within the range of possibilities.
The spread is a little wide for my liking in terms of plays for this game, so the play here is to take the Eagles ML in a teaser with either of the two Saturday games. Now that the Chiefs line has settled down to -7.5, taking the Chiefs -1.5 and Eagles ML in a teaser is a very tempting option.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Rams 20
Pick: Eagles ML in a teaser
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills
- Moneyline: Ravens -115; Bills -105
- Total: 51.5
The NFL has saved the best until last in the Divisional Round as the Ravens head to Highmark Stadium to face the Buffalo Bills. Coming out of Wild Card Weekend, this is a matchup between the second and third-best teams in our Power Rankings. The Ravens blew out the Bills 35-10 in Baltimore earlier this season, but all expectations are that this game should be much closer.
In our metrics, Baltimore has the second-ranked offense and eighth-ranked defense, while the Bills are fourth and 18th in those categories, respectively. Baltimore also has those superior offensive and defensive numbers despite playing the 14th-toughest schedule compared to 27th for Buffalo.
The Bills only advantage is an edge on special teams (21st vs. 31st). Offensively, there is very little to split them.
Both have strong run games, while the Ravens’ passing game is more efficient (0.31 EPA/DB vs. 0.23). But the Bills turn the ball over less (4.6% turnover rate vs. 4.8), take fewer sacks (2.6% sack rate vs. 4.8), and average more points per drive (2.9 vs. 2.78).
Defensively is where the Ravens have differentiated themselves in this matchup, with a strong second half. They allow an average of just 1.92 points per drive (vs. 2.06), have a 66% success rate against the run (vs. 62.9%), a 57.7% success rate against the pass (vs. 52.3%), allow a 39.8% third-down conversion rate (vs. 43.8%), and allow a 54% red-zone conversion rate (vs. 57.4%).
As the numbers demonstrate, this is likely to be a really tightly fought game. With home-field advantage, our metrics have the Bills winning 52.1% of the time, while the sportsbooks have the Ravens favored by a similar amount.
Given the likely close nature of this contest, it’s tempting to tease Buffalo up to getting around a touchdown, but that is a slim margin for error. There is no real play here because the sportsbooks have hit this one pretty much on the head. This game could flip back and forth as to who is favored. Therefore, if you are sharp on it this week, you could potentially end up playing both sides at plus money.
The total is pretty much set in the right spot. If you’re looking to tease it, then my lean would be towards taking it into the 45.5 region and going for the over. However, caution should be advised after the matchup saw 45 points scored, and a tense 23-20 type game is very much in the range of possible outcomes here.
Prediction: Bills 27, Ravens 24
Pick: Lean Bills ML and Bills +6 to +7.5 in a teaser