NFL’s Wild Card Weekend continues with a thrilling Sunday Night Football matchup between two of the most explosive NFC teams. With five teams already having punched their tickets to the Divisional Round, who might be next? Let’s break down the game, provide the most recent stats and insights, and analyze how you can watch all the exciting action.
Who Plays in Sunday Night Football Tonight?
- Game: Buccaneers vs. Commanders
- Location: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
According to TruMedia, the Bucs rank fourth in EPA (expected points added), third in success rate, fifth in explosive passing rate, and third in explosive rushing rate. There really isn’t a key weakness offensively for Tampa. Their worst ranking was their average starting field position (21st) and their performance against the blitz, which still ranks 12th in the league.
Part of what makes this offense tick is that Baker Mayfield has been playing quite well. According to PFN’s stats and insights, the Bucs have picked up 61.4% of their third downs in the past four weeks. Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games and ranks sixth in EPA per play this season.
The unsung hero of this team is the offensive line, who has been absolutely lights out in pass protection this season. The Bucs’ offensive line has allowed a pressure on 24.4% of dropbacks this season, which is first in the league. They also lead the league in quick pressure rate allowed, with only 9.9% of their dropbacks resulting in a pressure in under 2.5 seconds.
In the last decade, that quick pressure rate ranks sixth and the overall pressure rate ranks 11th. What makes it even more impressive is that they average 2.82 seconds to throw the ball, which is the 20th fastest. They aren’t getting the ball out quickly like some other teams, showing trust in the offensive line to hold up.
The clearest advantage for the Tampa Bay offense is in explosive play creation. Washington’s defense is giving up 3.8 rushes of 10 or more yards per game (26th). Bucky Irving could have game-breaking potential in this game, which is already reflected in his DraftKings rushing line. Despite averaging just 65.9 yards a game, 90+ yards is priced at -110, which is a 52.38% implied probability.
MORE: Updated NFL Playoff Bracket!
While Tampa’s defense has been poor all season, they have improved over the season. I created an improvement index for both sides of the ball, where I evaluate a team’s performance throughout the season. Tampa ranks third defensively, indicating that they have improved tremendously and are peaking at just the right time.
The difference maker in this game will be Daniels’ ability to scramble and play outside of the pocket. Tampa’s defense ranks 32nd in EPA on plays outside of the pocket, 29th against scrambles, and 17th against designed quarterback runs. This could be a major problem for Tampa. Daniels added 56.0 EPA on scrambles this season, the second-best in a season since 2000 (behind 2022 Justin Fields).
While both offenses have advantages, Washington’s offense has a clearer path to exploit Tampa Bay’s defensive weaknesses, especially if they can utilize their quarterback’s mobility and success outside the pocket. However, Tampa Bay’s ability to generate explosive runs could tilt the balance.
What Time Is Sunday Night Football Tonight?
- Date: Jan. 12, 2025
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV Channel and Live Stream for Sunday Night Football
- TV channels: NBC
- Live stream: Peacock
Buccaneers Stats and Insights
- The Bucs haven’t lost a game in regulation by more than three points since October.
- QB: In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season.
- In Weeks 9-14, the Bucs picked up just 38.3% of their third downs. In the four weeks to close the regular season, that rate spiked to 61.4%.
- Just three times through 15 weeks did Tampa Bay fail to force a turnover – they enter the postseason having failed to do so in each of their past three.
- Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season.
- Betting: Tampa Bay went 5-4 ATS at home this season after going 5-11-1 over the previous two seasons in front of their home fans.
Commanders Stats and Insights
- Jayden Daniels was drafted second overall and has a chance to lead Washington to its first playoff win since 2005 as a rookie. If he does so, he would tie C.J. Stroud from last season as the highest-drafted rookie QB to win a playoff game.
- Overall, rookie starting QBs are 12-15 in their playoff debuts. This could be the third straight season a rookie QB wins a playoff start (Stroud last year, Brock Purdy in 2022), which would be the longest streak in NFL history.
- In Year 1 of the Jayden Daniels era, the Commanders matched their win total from the two seasons prior (12) and posted their best point differential since the Super Bowl champion 1991 team.
- Daniels has completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during the current five-game win streak, a drastic improvement from his 49.1% rate over the previous five games.
- The Commanders have converted eight of their last nine fourth-down attempts (four for four over the past two weeks).
- Defense: Washington has held the opposition out of the end zone on at least half of their red zone drives in four of their past five games (one TD on six such drives on Sunday against Dallas).
- Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes this season, more than his best two seasons combined prior.
- Betting: The Commanders have failed to cover three straight road games after opening the season 3-1-1 ATS on the road.
NFL Playoff Dates and Divisional Round Schedule
Saturday, Jan. 18
- AFC/NFC divisional game: 4:30 p.m.
- AFC/NFC divisional game: 8:15 p.m.
Sunday, Jan. 19
- AFC/NFC divisional game: 3 p.m.
- AFC/NFC divisional game: 6:30 p.m.
Conference Championship Round
Sunday, Jan. 26
- NFC championship game: 3 p.m.
- AFC championship game: 6:30 p.m.
Super Bowl 59
- Date: Feb. 9, 2025
- Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX