NFL DFS: Week 4 Cash game and GPP picks

The main slate in Week 4 for NFL DFS could be the most exciting yet on DraftKings and FanDuel, with a plethora of picks to choose from. With seven totals over 50 points, there are more intriguing options than usual for you to mull over when constructing your lineups. Ownership on the higher-profile players will be down due to this. Targeting the right games and players will be more important than ever this week.

NFL DFS cash game picks for Week 4 of the 2020 season

When constructing a lineup for cash games in Week 4 on DraftKings and FanDuel, it’s crucial to target players with established roles in an offense. You don’t need to go for the home run play; focus on consistency in these contests. Building your cash game lineup on DraftKings around players with a high target share in their respective offenses is an excellent recipe for success.

Deshaun Watson ($6,600)

The Texans’ schedule has been brutal to start the season. The Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers all have elite defenses, so it’s been a rough going for Watson. He’ll finally draw a favorable matchup in Week 4 against the Vikings. This looks to be a high scoring affair due to both defenses being below average. Look for Watson to assert himself back into one of the top-tier fantasy options at quarterback this week.

Will Fuller ($5,900)

If you are playing Watson this week, stacking him with his favorite wide receiver is a must. Fuller did find his way onto the injury report this week with a minor hamstring injury, but it doesn’t appear to be anything severe enough to hold him out Sunday. He’ll be the top option in the Texans passing attack that’s going against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

DeVante Parker ($5,700)

I’m expecting some Fitzmagic this weekend, and Parker is a huge reason for that. The Seahawks defense has been atrocious thus far, and that should continue in Week 4 against an improved Dolphins passing attack. This could end up being one of the high scoring games of the weekend, and the Dolphins should be playing from behind for the majority of the game. If the Dolphins want to stay competitive in this game, they are going to have to do it through the air, and that should provide a smorgasbord of targets for Parker.

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800)**

Zeke is, by far, my favorite pick at RB for the Week 4 NFL DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. He is a bit pricey, but he is a must-have in your lineups for Week 4. Elliott has yet to have a truly dominant game thus far this season, but it’s coming on Sunday. The Browns have been decent against the run so far, but they’ve yet to face a back like Elliott. This game has the highest over/under on the slate at 56, and the Cowboys are a five-point favorite. Look for the Cowboys to take an early lead and ride Elliott to a victory.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,400)**

The rookie has regressed a bit since his Week 1 breakout performance, but he’ll look to get back on track against a Patriots defense that isn’t what it used to be. While he hasn’t quite put up the rushing numbers over the past two weeks, Edwards-Helaire’s presence in the passing game is encouraging. The Chiefs are a 6.5 point favorite at home, but never count out Cam Newton ($6400) and the Patriots. This game could be competitive going into the half, but the Chiefs should ride Edwards-Helaire in the second half.

Mo Alie-Cox ($3,900)

Heading into the 2020 season, Cox was an afterthought to Jack Doyle in the Colts passing game, but Cox has outplayed Doyle so far this season. He’s looked extremely athletic through the first three weeks and could be in line for more targets this week due to depleted depth at wide receiver for the Colts. Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman will both be out this week, leaving only T.Y. Hilton ($5300) and Zach Pascal ($4400) at wide receiver.

Related l NFL Week 4 Fantasy Injury Report

The Colts run a lot of multiple tight end sets, which should be more prominent than ever this week. Rivers has loved targeting his tight ends throughout his career and appears Alie-Cox has established himself as the top receiving tight end for the Colts. He’ll face a Bears defense that has given up a touchdown to tight ends in two out of the three games so far this season.

**Editor’s note**

Updates in lieu of the Friday practice reports.

Ronald Jones ($4,700)
One of the safest value options at RB in cash game lineups is Jones. Leonard Fournette being out should pay huge dividends for Jones on Sunday. LeSean McCoy should vulture some of the passing down work, but Jones is the 3 down back and it shouldn’t take too much work for him to pay off his low salary. The Buccaneers should take a lead early and let Jones run out the clock in the second half.

Alvin Kamara ($8,000)
Before the news broke that Michael Thomas and Jared Cook were out Sunday, Elliott was my unquestioned top play at running back. With this recent news, however, Kamara is now a must play in cash game lineups. He will literally be the entire Saints offense against the Lions in what is expected to be a high scoring game. Your lineup builds on DraftKings starts with Kamara and no one else.

Week 4 Game Stacks

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have made this section three weeks in a row. I imagine as long as they are on the main slate, we will be discussing them here. No one has run at a faster pace than Dallas, ranking first in both total pace and situation neutral pace, according to Football Outsiders. The Cowboys also have the second-highest pass/rush ratio in the league in neutral game scripts at 65/35, according to Sharp Football Stats.

I think the pace of Dallas will force Cleveland to play faster to keep up. Cleveland has the second-lowest pass/rush ratio in neutral game scripts (47/53), but have been efficient with their running game (five yards per carry). Their 45% passing success rate ranks just 25th in the league, but a game against Dallas should see that number spike after this week.

As for the Week 4 NFL DFS picks, it’s hard to get away from Dak Prescott ($7200). He is expensive but is a relative value considering he is priced as the QB5 on the slate. There isn’t a Cowboy I wouldn’t recommend in a game stack, but if I had to pick one as my favorite, it’s Michael Gallup ($6200). He is second on the team in Air Yards and will not be as popular as Amari Cooper ($6700) or CeeDee Lamb ($5400).

It will be hard to roster Ezekiel Elliott ($7800) when Alvin Kamara ($8000) is just $200 more. I know Myles likes Zeke more, but I’m leaning Kamara over Zeke myself. Elliott is a fine piece to add into game stacks, or as a one-off, in hopes, he scores the majority of the Dallas touchdowns; know you’re rostering a “worse” player than Kamara when doing so.

On the Cleveland side, this could be a breakout spot for Odell Beckham ($5800) and Jarvis Landry ($5100). Both are very affordable and should outperform expectations considering the game environment Dallas will force upon them. This is probably a Kareem Hunt ($6200) game, but if you think Cleveland can play with a lead here, Nick Chubb ($7000) is an excellent tournament option.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

This might be my favorite game of the slate to stack. It will be severely under-owned, feature two bad defenses, an offense that runs at a high pace and throws at one of the highest rates in the league. Jacksonville has ranked last in situation neutral pace to start the year, but the Bengals should pick them up, considering they rank 5th in total pace and 18th in situation neutral pace.

What draws me to this game is the Bengals pass/rush rate (64/36) going up against the Jaguars 32nd ranked defense in terms of passing success rate. Joe Burrow ($6300) has not played well to date but has gotten by from volume alone. I think we see a spike in efficiency here, which could lead to a massive day in DraftKings tournaments.

The receivers I’m most excited to pair with Burrow are A.J. Green ($5500) and Tee Higgins ($4500). Green leads the team in target share (20.67%) and air yards share (33.67%). Higgins is second in air yards share (27.5%) and led the WRs in snap share at 79% in Week 3. We could see the beginning of a growing role for the rookie.

Related l NFL Betting Lines 2020: Who Should I Bet On In Week 4?

Joe Mixon ($5800) might be my favorite play on the slate. He doesn’t have the target share you’d like, but he is cheap enough and dominates the opportunity share in the Cincinnati backfield. I have high hopes for Mixon this week, and you should have him in your tournament portfolio. Tyler Boyd ($6100) should also be in your mix if game stacking this game.

For the run-backs on the Jacksonville side, I love D.J. Chark ($6000), assuming he plays. His volume hasn’t been what we expected this season, but his presence was sorely missed in their Thursday night game against the Miami Dolphins. If he doesn’t play, I would mix and match the Jaguars receivers, or just run the Bengals with no run back, as I’m not sure who would be the player to target in Jacksonville.

***Editor’s note: The Texans/Vikings write up was added after the initial posting***

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans

I can see how this game doesn’t live up to expectations. If the Vikings are able to get out to an early lead, they will look to grind out the clock with a healthy does of Dalvin Cook ($7600), leaving little time for the Texans players to have any significant impact in DFS tournaments.

That said, I’m on board with Myles in stacking Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller. Everyone is too cheap here. Cook should probably be in the $8000 range, while Fuller and Cooks are tremendous values at their position. Houston has the third highest pass/rush ratio (65/35) in neutral game scripts in the league, which means no matter the game script, Houston will look to throw the ball.

Cook and Adam Thielen ($6600) are your preferred run backs from the Minnesota side. I think it’s very ambitious to expect Justin Jefferson ($5200) to return value here, considering the price hike. If you’re going all in on this game, then Jefferson should be in your lineups. With that said, if you need Jefferson to win a tournament this weekend, I’m not winning a tournament.

Week 4 NFL DFS values by position

RB Values

Alvin Kamara ($8000) – His receiving volume and efficiency have been unreal. I don’t see any reason for him not to continue that trend unless Michael Thomas ($7600) returns to action.

Jonathan Taylor ($6600) – A case where the price doesn’t match the talent. I am huge on the Colts to cover this week, and I expect Taylor to be a big part of that.

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5800) – Henderson dominated the RB opportunities in Week 3. With Cam Akers expected to miss another game, I find it hard to imagine Henderson loses significant touches to Malcolm Brown. He is one of the best values on the slate considering projected volume, team total, and is a massive favorite at home against a bad defense.

Related l Week 4 Fantasy Predictions: Can Vegas lines help predict game flow?

David Johnson ($5600)– If Duke Johnson plays, I am less excited about this play. There is no other RB on the Texans receiving any of the volume through the first three weeks. He is at home in a dome with the 3rd highest team total on the slate. Johnson will be a tremendous value if Duke Johnson misses another game.

Myles Gaskin ($5000)– Gaskin is probably for real. He emerged from the Dolphins timeshare to dominate the RB opportunities and snaps in Week 3. The Seattle defense is terrible, and if Gaskin takes on another bell-cow role, he’s a candidate to be the best value and one of the top Week 4 NFL DFS picks on the slate.

WR Values

Michael Thomas ($7600)– Even if he plays, they might take it easy on him in his first game back. Hopefully, we get news before lock, so we don’t have to decide on Sunday. If he is active and operating at full capacity, he is a “lock” at this price point.

Related l DeAndre Hopkins injury casts doubt for Week 4 availability

Keenan Allen ($6500)– He is 5th in the league in air yards and tied for the most targets in the league at 37, with DeAndre Hopkins ($8500). The scoring equity isn’t there due to the 18 point implied team total, but you’re getting a discount with his projected volume at his price.

Mike Evans ($6400)– He delivered over 100 yards and a touchdown in the first game Chris Godwin missed while dominating the team in targets with 10. Again, don’t get cute with Scotty Miller ($4100) or any other ancillary pieces; Evans is mispriced relative to his projected role. He is one of my favorite Week 4 NFL DFS picks.

Kenny Golladay ($6000)– With his first start out of the way, Golladay could see an even more significant role this week against the Saints. New Orleans 27th ranked passing defense will lend aid to Golladay having a monster game.

Will Fuller ($5900)– His 25% target share is first on the Texans. The injury risk is always there, but we have seen the upside with Fuller. This could be a blow-up spot considering the opponent and his rapport with QB Deshaun Watson ($6600).

D.J. Moore ($5600)– This price point is egregious for someone of Moore’s talent. His 50% air yards share is the 2nd highest in the league, while he has an above-average target share at 24%. With a -16% Fantasy Points Differential and Arizona making it a pace-up game for Carolina, this has all of the makings of a blow-up game for Moore.

Andy Isabella ($4500)– If Christian Kirk ($4400) were to miss this game, Isabella would again be in line for a larger role. He converted all four of his targets last week, and I have to imagine it’s only a matter of time before the coaching staff promotes him within the offense.

Brandin Cooks ($4500)– He and Watson will eventually build their chemistry. This game could be the week to do it considering the opponent. I prefer targeting Cooks in-game stacks only but can also see him in play as a one-off.

TE Values

Darren Waller ($5200)– With the Raiders top two receivers expected to miss this game, Waller is in line for a massive workload.

Hunter Henry ($4600)– If the implied team total is any indication, we probably aren’t seeing a “true” ceiling game from Henry. However, he has the 3rd most targets of any TE in the league, with a respectable 20% target share. That kind of volume from a TE is an anomaly.

Logan Thomas ($3500)– He has disappointed two weeks in a row, but the volume is there. His expected fantasy points suggest he’s seen enough work to be the TE3 in fantasy.

DST Values

Ravens ($4000)/Rams ($3900)– At least one of these teams should be in your player pool. Both are playing bad offenses with bad offensive lines and are expected to be leading throughout their respective games

Buccaneers ($3400)– I’m not buying the Chargers ninth ranked offensive line in terms of adjusted sack rate, considering they have played the Bengals and Panthers thus far. Tampa Bay will be able to pressure Justin Herbert.

Related l Week 4 Fantasy Football Defense/Special Teams Rankings

Colts ($3300)– I’m not a believer in Chicago in the slightest. The Colts defense should have ample opportunities to pressure Nick Foles.

Browns ($2300)– There will be plenty of volume for the Browns defense to make plays.

Dolphins ($2000)– Just like the Jets last week, you’re playing them for their salary and not much else.

Week 3 DFS Results

When reviewing the results from week to week on DraftKings or Fanduel, a good way to analyze how well a player did is by their points per dollar (PPD). This calculates how well a player did, compared to his salary.