Yesterday’s NFL Wild Card action started with a bang as the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans both blew out their opponents to advance to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Sunday’s action has another three games as the NFC now gets their chance to punch their tickets to the next round.
You can check out the updated NFL playoff bracket here. Additionally, if you want a recap of yesterday’s games, make sure to take a look at our Wild Card Round results.
NFL Games Today: How to Watch Broncos at Bills
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+
- Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
Stats and Insights for Broncos
Bo Nix got this team to 10 wins. Their last double-digit win season came in 2015, a season that ended with a Super Bowl.
Bo Nix made NFL history as the first QB with 3+ TD passes and 75% complete in four games as a rookie. He also matched the franchise record for such games in a season (Peyton Manning had four such games in both 2012 and 2013).
Overall, rookie starting QBs are 12-15 in their playoff debuts. This could be the third straight season a rookie QB wins a playoff start (Stroud last year, Brock Purdy in 2022), which would be the longest streak in NFL history.
If Denver is going to gain the edge, their emerging second-year receiver in Marvin Mims Jr. could be at the center of things. The Bills own a bottom-five blitz rate and a bottom-10 pressure rate this season (their pressure rate sits at 32.5%, lowest among playoff teams).
Yards Per Route, QB Not Pressured
- CeeDee Lamb: 2.70
- Malik Nabers: 2.66
- Justin Jefferson: 2.64
- Marvin Mims Jr.: 2.62
- Drake London: 2.61
- Tee Higgins: 2.54
Since Week 11, the Broncos have been the third-highest-scoring team in the league (32.6 PPG).
The Broncos beat the Chiefs on Sunday, their first win this season in a game in which they didn’t force a turnover (lost the previous four).
MORE: Brand New NFL Mock Draft
Courtland Sutton has scored 18 times on 225 targets over the past two seasons (two seasons prior: four touchdowns on 207 targets).
Over the past two months, the Broncos have two losses on normal-to-extended rest – an overtime loss to Joe Burrow and a two-point loss to Patrick Mahomes (GW 35-yard FGA was blocked at the buzzer).
Stats and Insights for Bills
The Bills have made the postseason in seven of eight seasons under Sean McDermott (he was hired with the franchise on a 17-year playoff drought).
This is the sixth straight season in which Josh Allen is playing on Wild Card Weekend – he’s completed at least 70% of his passes in three of his past four, with multiple TD tosses in each of those contests (one touchdown pass for every 13.5 attempts across those four contests).
The first 30-30 team in NFL history (passing and rushing touchdowns). Balance is good until it’s not – only twice in NFL history has a team with 30+ rush TDs won their conference (2022 Eagles and 1983 Commanders).
Excluding Week 18, when most of the starters were very limited, if not out altogether, the Buffalo defensive trends on third down are concerning.
- Weeks 6-13: 36.5%
- Weeks 14-17: 57.1% converted
Remove the outlier shootout game against the Rams in Week 14 and Amari Cooper has been targeted on just 15.4% of his routes as a member of the Bills (Weeks 1-6 with Cleveland: 22.8%).
The Bills went 5-3 ATS at home with overs going 6-2, a change of pace from their 4-5 ATS mark and 3-6 overs record a season ago.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
- Time: 4:30 p.m.
- TV Channel: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
Stats and Insights for Packers
It was a difficult end to the season, but the Packers posted their second-best point differential during the Matt LaFleur era (+122)
In Weeks 11-16, Jordan Love’s pressured passer rating was 107.2, a number that has plummeted to 53.6 in two consecutive losses to round out the regular season.
Green Bay is just 3-5 this season when failing to convert over one-third of its third downs (three-of-10 against the Bears in Week 18).
The Packers lost on Sunday despite allowing just 18.5 yards per drive (they were 5-0 this season when allowing under 25 yards per drive prior).
Josh Jacobs has rushed for a touchdown in a franchise-record eight straight games and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry over his past three games. He’s been able to add value in the passing game, catching each of his past 13 targets.
Betting: Since 2003, unders are 17-6-1 (73.9%) in Eagles playoff games, the second highest rate among franchises with at least five playoff games over that stretch (exception: Titans at 81.8%).
Stats and Insights for Eagles
The Eagles have lost six of their past eight playoff games outright when favored (four Wild Card games are included in that sample, all losses).
Jalen Hurts (and the coaching staff) is trusting his reads longer, a continued trend from the past few seasons. His quick pass rate in 2022 was 69.8% – it dipped to 61.7% in 2023 and finished this year at 57.3%.
Philadelphia was outscored by 14 points in the first quarter this season—just one of the past 12 Super Bowl champions has had a negative first-quarter point differential (2020 Buccaneers).
In Weeks 1-17, the Eagles were 12-0 when allowing 2.0 or fewer points per drive (1-3 otherwise).
Saquon Barkley led the position in top-10 PPR performances this season (10) despite not playing last week.
Betting: From 2013-20, home teams on Wild Card weekend were just 8-17-3 ATS (32%), but since 2021, when the shift to an 18-week regular season began, they have been 11-7 ATS (61.1%).
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
- Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Stats and Insights for Commanders
Jayden Daniels was drafted second overall and has a chance to lead Washington to its first playoff win since 2005 as a rookie. If he does so, he would tie C.J. Stroud from last season as the highest drafted rookie QB to win a playoff game.
Overall, rookie starting QBs are 12-15 in their playoff debuts. This could be the third straight season a rookie QB wins a playoff start (Stroud last year, Brock Purdy in 2022), which would be the longest streak in NFL history.
In Year 1 of the Jayden Daniels era, the Commanders matched their win total from the two seasons prior (12) and posted their best point differential since the Super Bowl champion 1991 team.
Daniels has completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during the current five-game win streak, a drastic improvement from his 49.1% rate over the previous five games.
The Commanders have converted eight of their last nine fourth-down attempts (four for four over the past two weeks).
Defense: Washington has held the opposition out of the end zone on at least half of their red zone drives in four of their past five games (one TD on six such drives on Sunday against Dallas).
Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes this season, more than his best two seasons combined prior.
Betting: The Commanders have failed to cover three straight road games after opening the season 3-1-1 ATS on the road.
Stats and Insights for Buccaneers
The Bucs haven’t lost a game in regulation by more than three points since October.
In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season.
In Weeks 9-14, the Bucs picked up just 38.3% of their third downs. In the four weeks to close the regular season, that rate spiked to 61.4%.
Just three times through 15 weeks did Tampa Bay fail to force a turnover – they enter the postseason having failed to do so in each of their past three.
Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season.
Betting: Tampa Bay went 5-4 ATS at home this season after going 5-11-1 over the previous two seasons in front of their home fans.