Mike Tomlin has seen plenty of highs throughout his 18 seasons as the Pittsburgh Steelers head coach. But the playoff glory of his early years with the Steelers is increasingly far in the rearview mirror, leaving Pittsburgh fans fed up with the team’s lack of playoff success.
After another postseason letdown, this time to the hated Baltimore Ravens, there are legitimate questions about the Steelers franchise’s ceiling. But is moving on from Tomlin even a realistic option for Pittsburgh?
Should the Steelers Make a Coaching Change?
The Steelers’ last playoff win came in the 2016 Divisional Round against the Kansas City Chiefs. That was the year before the Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes and transformed themselves into the latest NFL dynasty.
Since then, Tomlin and the Steelers have dropped six straight playoff games. The list of coaches that have won in the postseason since then is enough to nearly fill up the entire league.
While there’s no shame in having less playoff success than the likes of Andy Reid and Bill Belichick, some truly stunning names have won in the postseason since then. Mike Mularkey, Doug Marrone, and Frank Reich are among those who have tasted playoff success more recently than Tomlin.
The case for moving on from Tomlin starts with the reality that the Steelers may not have a Super Bowl ceiling anymore. Those six playoff losses aren’t really a fluke. Pittsburgh was an underdog in four of those six games, including significant underdogs in their last three against the Ravens, Buffalo Bills (2023 Wild Card), and Kansas City Chiefs (2021 Wild Card).
That trio is the class of the AFC, largely due to their franchise quarterbacks leading elite offenses. Pittsburgh isn’t anywhere close to reaching that neighborhood, which limits their overall team ceiling.
PFN’s Offense+ metric dates back to 2019, which happens to be the season after Antonio Brown forced his way out of Pittsburgh. Since then, the Steelers haven’t finished higher than 19th in Offense+ in a single season.
The last time Mike Tomlin won a playoff game was in January 2017. Since then, 28 head coaches have won at least one playoff game. pic.twitter.com/XAFAiaUnts
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 12, 2025
The only other teams to finish with a below-average Offense+ grade every year since 2019 are the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, and New York Jets. That’s some extremely dubious company to keep, and the Steelers have avoided that level of incompetence thanks to a defense that has had some elite seasons.
However, 2024 was a stopgap season at quarterback with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields on one-year deals. That leaves the Steelers no closer to raising their offensive ceiling to the level necessary to compete with the AFC’s elite.
Ultimately, if the Steelers feel Tomlin has lost the ability to properly build out an offensive coaching staff and infrastructure, that would be a more compelling reason to move on from him than even the playoff losing streak.
What Are the Steelers’ Options With Mike Tomlin?
Realistically, though, the Steelers aren’t firing Tomlin. Pittsburgh is notoriously patient with its coaches, as the franchise has famously employed only three head coaches in the last 56 seasons.
That included a four-year playoff drought for Chuck Noll from 1985-88 and a three-year playoff drought for Bill Cowher from 1998-2000. Tomlin has never missed the playoffs more than two seasons in a row, and after another regular season in which the Steelers overachieved compared to preseason expectations, it’s totally unfathomable that Pittsburgh would fire him.
Trading coaches is always an option, though that’s a very rare move. Only eight coaches have been traded since the 1970 merger, with Sean Payton’s move from the New Orleans Saints to the Denver Broncos in 2023 being the most recent example.
But the Steelers are barely willing to move first-round picks in traditional player or draft-day trades, let alone for coaches. Before 2024, Tomlin signed a three-year extension that keeps him under contract through 2027. Critically, he also has a no-trade clause in his contract, so he’d also have to sign off on a potential move, too.
It’s not feasible that Pittsburgh would tear up that extension before it even begins. Even if Tomlin finally has his first losing season in 2025, it would seem unlikely that the Steelers would immediately cut bait barring a total collapse both on the field and within the team’s culture.
Thus, the earliest realistic year for Tomlin’s tenure to end is after the 2026 season, when he’d be entering the lame-duck final season of his contract. That would put him at an even 20 seasons in the Steel City. Until then, it’s reasonable to wonder if having such a narrow gap between the Steelers’ floor and ceiling is a status quo worth maintaining.