Having clinched the NFC’s No. 1 seed in the final week of the season, the Detroit Lions are watching Wild Card Weekend from the comfort of their sofas and awaiting their first opponents of the postseason to present themselves.
With the help of the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the Lions’ playoff scenarios and who could be their potential opponents in the Divisional Round.
What Are the Detroit Lions’ Playoff Scenarios?
The Lions have three potential opponents out of the six playing on Wild Card Weekend: the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, and Washington Commanders. They cannot face either the Philadelphia Eagles or Tampa Bay Buccaneers until the AFC Championship Game at the earliest.
The NFL playoff bracket reseeds on each side after each round. Essentially, that means the highest remaining seed will always face the lowest remaining seed. As the No. 1 seed, the Lions are guaranteed to be the highest-remaining seed in the NFC and, therefore, will always play the lowest remaining seed in the Divisional Round.
With that logic, it is impossible for the No. 1 seed to face either the No. 2 (Eagles) or No. 3 (Buccaneers) seeds in the Divisional Round. Assuming they both win, they are guaranteed to be the second- and third-highest remaining seeds of the four teams in the Divisional Round bracket.
That leaves us with the three teams that the Lions can face. Based on our win probabilities, the order of likelihood for these matchups is as follows:
- Commanders (No. 6) at Lions (No. 1)
- Vikings (No. 5) at Lions (No. 1)
- Rams (No. 4) at Lions (No. 1)
Of the eight potential outcomes entering Wild Card Weekend, two see Washington playing the Lions. Since the Packers lost, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders will face the Lions if they defeat the Buccaneers on Sunday night.
If the Vikings are to head to Detroit, they need to beat the Rams on Monday Night Football. They will know going into that game where they will be heading as the Commanders’ result will determine if the Vikings are the lowest remaining seed in the NFC bracket.
The Rams’ scenario for heading to Detroit is essentially the same as the Vikings’. If they beat Minnesota and Washington loses, the Rams will play in Ford Field in the Divisional Round.
The NFC bracket has started to take shape now that the first game is over. The Eagles and Packers matchup in Lincoln Financial Field controls the entire fate of the Divisional Round.
Since the Eagles won, all eyes will go to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. A Commanders win would ensure they go to Ford Field. A Buccaneers win would leave the Lions’ opponent down to the result of Monday Night Football.
Looking into the future, if the Lions win in the Divisional Round, they are guaranteed to host the NFC Championship Game. As the No. 1 seed, the Lions cannot go on the road in the playoffs until the neutral-site game at the Super Bowl in New Orleans.