Saturday Night Football tonight will feature an AFC North showdown between two long-time rivals. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will play for the third time this season, with Lamar Jackson looking to put his playoff struggles behind him.
Saturday Night Football Tonight
- Teams: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium
According to TruMedia, the Ravens have the No. 1-ranked offense in EPA (expected points added) and the No. 2 offense in success rate. One of the more impressive things about this offense is its ability to create positive plays. They have the fourth-fewest amount of EPA lost to turnovers, and the third-fewest amount of EPA lost to sacks.
Baltimore’s offense has the longest throw time at 3.24 seconds, yet the Ravens have allowed a sack rate of 4.8% (fourth-lowest). Jackson’s escapability and pocket navigation skills are among the key traits that make him such a special talent. Among other stats, this is one of the key reasons Jackson dominates PFN’s QB+ metric, with his 2024 season ranking first among all seasons since 2019.
The offensive line adds to this, ranking second in quick pressure rate allowed and seventh in PFF’s pass-blocking grade. The development of this group will be key in the colder games, where you need to dominate the trenches the most. Derrick Henry has enjoyed his time as a Raven from a run-blocking standpoint as well.
The Ravens are first in the league in yards per rush before contact at 2.41 yards. A lot of this comes from the fact that they have Jackson, which puts added stress on the defense. In fact, there is a strong positive correlation (0.35) between yards per rush before contact and yards per rush on designed quarterback runs.
Of the top 10 teams since 2020 in yards per rush before contact, all of them but the Kansas City Chiefs in 2021 were also top 11 in yards per rush on designed quarterback runs. In Henry’s career, none of his Tennessee Titans seasons even sniffed two yards. On top of that, Henry averaged 58.5% of runs against a stacked box, with two seasons over 70%. With the Ravens this season, he only ran against a stacked box 48.9% of the time.
Offensively, the Steelers rank 24th in EPA per play and 26th in success rate, second-last only to the Houston Texans in terms of playoff teams. The offense also does well with explosive plays, ranking 10th in passing explosive play rate and eighth in rushing.
This will be a huge advantage in the passing game but not the rushing game. Baltimore ranks 27th in passes of 20 or more yards given up but first in rushes of 10 or more yards given up.
Overall, Baltimore’s defense has seen huge improvements since the beginning of the season. They rank first in my defensive improvement index, which tracks a team’s defensive EPA over the season to determine which teams are peaking at the right time and which are getting worse. Pittsburgh’s defense is second-worst behind only the Titans.
What Time Is Saturday Night Football Tonight?
- Date: Jan. 11, 2025
- Start time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel and Live Stream for Saturday Night Football
- TV channels: Amazon Prime
- Live stream: Amazon Prime
Stats and Insights for Steelers vs. Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
- The 2011 Giants are the only team since 2000 to win a Super Bowl in a season that included a four-game losing streak (the Steelers have lost four straight, totaling just 57 points across those games).
- Russell Wilson’s pressure stats are a major concern as we get into the postseason.
Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 12-14: 120.7 (would lead the NFL)
Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 15-18: 43.9 (worse than Kirk Cousins) - Saturday’s loss to the Bengals was Pittsburgh’s first this season when not turning the ball over (they won the first four such instances, out-scoring opponents 100-44 in those games).
- The Steelers are 1-5 this season when allowing opponents to pick up at least 37% of their third downs this season (lone win: Week 13 at Bengals).
- The Najee Harris train has run out of gas, partly due to this offense:
Weeks 6-14: 4.2% production over expectation, 4.0 red zone touches per game
Weeks 15-18: 16.8% production below expectations, 2.0 red zone touches per game - Betting: Mike Tomlin doesn’t just excel at winning games on the field – his Steelers have posted a winning ATS record in 10 of the past 12 seasons (2024: 11-6, 64.7%).
Baltimore Ravens
- In the last two seasons under Todd Monken, Lamar Jackson has been a different QB:
2023-24: 66.9% complete, 8.4 yards per attempt, 7.0% TD, 1.2% INT
Career prior: 63.7% complete, 7.4 yards per attempt, 6.1%, 2.3% INT - The Ravens turned the ball over at least once in six of their first seven games – they’ve done it in just three of 10 games since.
- In Weeks 11-18, Baltimore allowed 1.38 points per drive (Weeks 1-10: 2.30)
- Since Week 12, Derrick Henry has been even more dangerous than normal when it comes to chunk gains.
Weeks 1-11: 37.6% of carries gained 5+ yards (11.7% gained 10+ yards)
Weeks 12-18: 49.2% of carries gained 5+ yards (17.2% gained 10+ yards) - Betting: No team cashed over tickets more often than the Ravens during the regular season (13-4), quite the change for a franchise that had more unders than overs in each of the four seasons prior.