The Washington Commanders were one of the best stories of the 2024 NFL season, but the final chapter isn’t written just yet.
The long-suffering franchise went from the No. 2 overall pick to the postseason behind electrifying rookie Jayden Daniels. Now looking to build on an unexpected playoff run, who could the Commanders face if they advance to the Divisional Round?
What Are the Washington Commanders’ Playoff Scenarios?
As the No. 6 seed, there are three potential opponents for the Commanders in the Divisional Round. The two teams they cannot face in the Divisional Round are the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers and the second-seeded Philadelphia Eagles (and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers obviously).
The Commanders and Packers can’t meet before the NFC Championship Game as the two lowest-seeded teams. And if the Packers are knocked out, the Eagles cannot host the Commanders since Washington would be the lowest-seeded team left and thus forced to play the top-seeded Detroit Lions.
All scenarios and probabilities outlined below are under the assumption that the Commanders have beaten the Buccaneers. If you want to calculate the likelihood of each scenario happening, PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor projects Washington with a 45.1% chance of winning in Tampa Bay.
Additionally, for all scenarios outlined in this article, the key point to remember is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. The lowest remaining seed visits the highest remaining seed, unlike the majority of playoff formats (such as the College Football Playoff) where subsequent matchups are fixed based on the pre-existing bracket.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, Washington’s most likely opponent is Detroit. With No. 2 seed Philly favored to beat Green Bay at home (59.0%), the Commanders would be the lowest remaining seed with a win and visit Ford Field.
With a win, there would be a 59.0% chance that Washington would play its Divisional Round Game in Detroit. The next most likely outcome based on our win probabilities is a 22.5% chance of playing at the No. 5 seed Minnesota Vikings, then an 18.5% chance of visiting the No. 4 seed Los Angeles Rams.
As outlined above, the Commanders would face the top-seeded Lions if the Eagles hold serve at home against the Packers. At that point, the Vikings-Rams game would be irrelevant to Washington’s Divisional Round destination.
If the Commanders AND Packers both pull off road upsets, then Washington would face whoever wins the Vikings-Rams matchup. That’s due to Green Bay being a lower seed than Washington, which means the Packers would draw the top-seeded Lions.
In any scenario outlined above, the Commanders will be headed on the road to play the Lions, Vikings, or Rams.
Washington did not see any of those three teams during the regular season. They haven’t played in the Divisional Round since after the 2005 season, when they lost to the eventual NFC champion Seattle Seahawks.
Could the Commanders Host the NFC Championship Game?
Yes, Washington can host the NFC Championship Game, but it will take a series of upsets for that to occur. The only team seeded lower than the Commanders are the Packers. That means the following results would have to all occur for the NFC Championship Game to be at Northwest Stadium:
- No. 6 Commanders defeat No. 3 Buccaneers
- No. 7 Packers defeat No. 2 Eagles
- No. 6 Commanders defeat either No. 5 Vikings or No. 4 Rams
- No. 7 Packers defeat No. 1 Lions
That’s four games in which the lower-seeded road team would need to win. In the brief history of the 14-team playoff format (since 2020), no No. 6 seed has hosted a playoff game. The only No. 6 seed to win multiple games was the 2021 San Francisco 49ers, who beat the Dallas Cowboys and Packers before falling to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game.