It’s still too soon to say Anthony Richardson is a complete bust, but it’s not looking good. He’s now spent two years in the league and showed an inability to stay on the field combined with an inability to complete passes. Richardson attempted 264 passes in the 2024 season. He completed 47.7% of them, putting his career completion percentage at 50.6%. Even if he were a runner on Lamar Jackson’s level, that level of passing ineptitude, if he is unable to improve, guarantees him a very short shelf life as an NFL starting quarterback.
It’s interesting how no one is looking at Mac Jones as a guy who might start in 2025. Yet, Trevor Lawrence’s status as the Jaguars QB1 is unchallenged. Jones is, at the very least, as good as Lawrence. In fact, Jones’ 2024 ranked 30th in PFN’s QB+ metric, one spot ahead of Lawrence. Of course, we know why. Lawrence was the chosen one. He was dubbed (wrongly) a generational prospect. Therefore, he gets a much, much longer leash. This is probably it, though. With a new coaching staff and an elite WR1 in Brian Thomas Jr., Lawrence will get the 2025 season to prove he can be a viable NFL starting quarterback, something he has not done in his first four years in the league. My prediction is he will fail, making him someone dynasty managers should look to get rid of at all costs.
Maybe I’m the one overreacting to Joe Mixon’s dreadful close to the season. He averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game on the year, making him one of the best values in fantasy. However, during Weeks 15-17, the fantasy playoffs, Mixon failed to reach double-digits in any of them. Mixon will be 29 years old next year. While he should still have another strong year or two left, the end is obviously closer than the beginning. This one is very price sensitive, but cashing out on what will likely be the best year Mixon has in his post-Bengals career is probably a wise move.
White had been getting the ceremonial start at running back all season, despite clearly having lost his lead back job to Bucky Irving. After the Cowboys game, Irving started and White barely touched the ball. In Week 18 of the regular season, White had zero touches. For the entirety of his career, White has been one of the least efficient runners in the league. Ironically, 2024 was actually his best year. However, the Bucs have had enough. Perhaps White still has a future as a viable satellite back, but it will be with another team after his rookie deal is up. I genuinely believe White will have zero fantasy value in 2025. It is more likely he is never startable again for the rest of his career than he returns value commensurate with where it stands now. He is the No. 1 sell at running back in dyansty.
After a very slow start to his career, Xavier Worthy finished his rookie season very strong. He was a borderline league-winner, scoring between 19.6 and 22.9 fantasy points in Weeks 15-17. Beginning in Week 11, the Chiefs started ramping up Worthy’s role, consistently scheming up ways to get him the ball. While it’s great when our fantasy players get layup targets and manufactured touches, for long-term sustainability, we need them to be able to win on their own. Unfortunately, Worthy did not prove capable of doing that. Worthy’s yards per route run sat at a paltry 1.25. Among all rookie WRs since 2011, that ranked 102nd. Rashee Rice will be back next season and it remains to be seen what the Chiefs do with DeAndre Hopkins or Hollywood Brown. Either way, Worthy’s value right now may end up being the highest of his career.
It’s not exactly groundbreaking to recommend selling old players. Deebo Samuel Sr. is 29 years old and showed significant signs of decline. Admittedly, there’s a chance his awful performance was linked to his medley of injuries, as well as his bout with pneumonia that forced him to be hospitalized. It’s possible he never fully recovered. Samuel is almost certainly going to be gone from San Francisco next season. How will he fare in a new offense coming off a season where he averaged 1.61 yards per route run and a career-worst 10.2 fantasy points per game? I’d rather let someone else find out.
Fantasy managers, like NFL players, are often overly optimistic on injuries. Every year, we are willing to draft players like Jonathon Brooks and Nick Chubb, expecting them to return and immediately look like their former selves. Dell was already an old rookie at 24 years old. He is probably not going to play at all in 2025 and there’s a realistic change he never plays again. Even if he is able to get back on the field, the odds are stacked heavily against him ever returning to pre-injury form. And if that does happen, it likely won’t be until at least 2026, at which point he will be in his age 27 season. Sadly, due entirely to the injury, fantasy managers should cash out on whatever remains of Dell’s value.
Kraft did play over 80% of the snaps in most of the games this season, including the ones in which Luke Musgrave was active. The real issue is this Packers offense. For starters, this is a very run-heavy offense. The Packers actually led the league with a 53% neutral game script run rate last season. I don’t expect their philosophy to change going forward. Next, there’s the matter of the abundance of pass-catchers. Kraft will have his games. So will Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and, when healthy, Christian Watson. The notion that Kraft will ever be a guy you can trust weekly feels tenuous, at best.
