It’s hard to shake the stigma of initial failures. Mayfield burst onto the scene as a rookie, but then floundered for the better part of five years. Yet, Mayfield is still not even 30 years old. He just averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall QB3. He was the QB6 in PFN’s QB+ metric in 2024. As a reminder, this is a former No. 1 overall pick. He was supposed to be this good. Now that he’s finally realizing his potential, believe it. Mayfield should be valued like a top-12 dynasty quarterback.
There’s definitely risk this is a one-year blip, powered by the QB whisperer, Kevin O’Connell. If Darnold ends up on another team next year, he could turn back into a proverbial pumpkin. With that said, it’s hard to throw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns by sheer luck. Darnold was 12th in PFN’s QB+ metric in 2024. His 18.8 fantasy points per game were good for an overall QB9 finish. Given that Darnold was so bad for so long, he won’t be valued as a QB1 in dynasty. I don’t even have him ranked there. Even so, he’s shown enough to convince me he’s closer to the guy who the Jets took with the No. 3 overall pick. And, as a reminder, he’s only 27 years old.
Entering the 2025 offseason, Najee Harris is set to become an unrestricted free agent, while Jaylen Warren is a restricted free agent. That creates a large cloud of uncertainty surrounding both players. It also presents a buying opportunity for fantasy managers. Warren has shown a lot over his three years in the league, going from UDFA to on par to Harris in the Steelers backfield. If Warren goes to another team, he will likely have at least as significant of a role as the one he’s had in Pittsburgh. If he stays with the Steelers, at worst, he should be what he was this past year. What if Warren stays and Harris leaves? Harris is very likely gone, as the Steelers declined his fifth year option when they had the opportunity to retain his rights for another season. Imagine Warren in a lead back role? Right now, Warren’s value is based on being the 1b in the Steelers backfield. Dynasty managers should be willing to roll the dice his situation improves between now and the end of March.
Corum showed very little as a rookie, failing to push Kyren Williams at all. Since the incumbent never missed any action, Corum never got a chance to prove himself. When he was finally getting that opportunity in Week 18, Corum broke his arm. As a result, Corum finished his rookie season with 65 touches for 265 scoreless yards. When next season begins, it’s going to be Williams dominating the snaps and touches once again. Every year is different, though. And every running back remains an injury risk. The odds remain against Williams playing a full season in 2025. If Corum can get in there and play well, his dynasty value will rise. Right now, it’s dirt cheap. If there ever were a time for a rebuilding team to take a shot, it’s before the 2025 season begins.
Harrison wound up averaging 11.6 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR40. In some ways, his struggles were eerily similar to Drake London’s as a rookie. Although, London had far worse quarterback play and coaching. Ultimately, I landed in favor of Harrison long-term. This was a generational prospect who, for all his struggles, wasn’t exactly bad as a rookie. He caught 62 passes for 885 yards. Typically, rookie WRs who reach 900 yards pan out very well. Harrison was only 15 yards short. His upside remains very high. However, due to his underwhelming rookie year, his dynasty value is not where it was at the beginning of the season. I’m willing to take the chance that we see a massive second year leap from the son of the Hall of Famer.
Sep 5, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) runs the ball as Baltimore Ravens linebacker Roquan Smith (0) defends during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Why isn’t Rice being treated like a WR1? The answer is simple. Out of sight, out of mind. There are a lot of very talented wide receivers in the NFL right now. For almost all of them, we got to see them play the entire season. That’s not the case with Rice. Despite Worthy’s ascent and the existence of of Hopkins and Brown, I remain steadfast in my belief that Rice will be the guy once he gets back on the field. As a reminder, Rice tore his LCL. It’s a much less common injury, but also much less severe than a torn ACL or MCL. Barring any setbacks, Rice will be back to 100% by the Summer. There shouldn’t be any need to wait for the year after the return. Before going down, Rice posted games of 17.3, 18.5, and 29.1 fantasy points. He is an elite WR1 closer to the likes of Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase than where he’s currently being valued.
Jan 5, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (16) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
It feels like Jakobi Meyers is perennially undervalued. He’ll never have league-winning upside, but it’s highly improbable any dynasty sleeper will. Meyers has averaged double-digit fantasy points per game for five consecutive seasons. He’s been between 12.9 and 13.6 in each of the past three years. At 28 years old on a bad team with an uncertain QB situation, Meyers is the exact type of player dynasty managers typically eschew. With the majority of his career behind him and lacking the high-end upside of younger, more talented players, Meyers will likely once again slide down draft boards, as dynasty managers chase players with a higher ceiling who are less likely to have any value at all. If you’re a contending team, don’t overlook Meyers.
Johnson didn’t suddenly become bad at football. It’s certainly not a good look that he had behind-the-scenes issues on three different teams in the year 2024. Nevertheless, that doesn’t preclude him from finding a new home in 2025 where he can be a team’s WR2. Johnson is still just 28 years old. His skill set is one that should age well. He could easily have another 4-6 quality years left. It’s been a while since he was a WR1, averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game in 2021. However, he did have that month-long stretch with Andy Dalton where he posted three games of 19.8+ fantasy points. That talent still exists and Johnson will cost very little to acquire in 2025 dynasty startup drafts, or via trade.
