The NFL playoffs get underway today, with 14 teams battling for a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Which teams have the best shot at advancing to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans?
To limit subjectivity from our power rankings, we have devised our PR+ metric, which combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, our special teams ranking, and a level of correction for the teams’ strength of schedule and win-loss record (among other things). We also take injuries and other factors surrounding teams into account.
Let’s examine where each playoff team ranks entering the Wild Card Weekend.
1) Detroit Lions
Record: 15-2
- Offense+ Rank: 1
- Defense+ Rank: 5
- Special Teams+ Rank: 7
- SOS Rank: 7
- Odds of Winning Super Bowl: 29.2%
The Lions beat the Vikings 31-9 in Week 18 to clinch the No. 1 seed and the NFC North. It marked the first time in NFL history that two 14-win teams faced off in the regular season.
Jahmyr Gibbs was incredible, scoring four touchdowns (three rushing and one receiving) and totaling 170 yards (139 rushing and 31 receiving). Gibbs finished the season with 20 touchdowns, leading the NFL and breaking Detroit’s franchise record.
PFN’s Playoff Predictor is a big fan of the Lions, ranking Detroit as the best offense and fifth-best defense in the league while giving them a 29.2% chance to win the Super Bowl — double the odds of the next-highest team.
2) Baltimore Ravens
Record: 12-5
- Offense+ Rank: 2
- Defense+ Rank: 8
- Special Teams+ Rank: 31
- SOS Rank: 14
In Week 18, the Ravens secured the AFC’s No. 3 seed with their fourth straight 17+ point win. In the process, Lamar Jackson posted his 11th game of the season with multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions, a threshold only MVPs have hit in the past.
The second-ranked offense gets the bulk of the attention and deservedly so, but the defense is quietly rounding into form. Baltimore has the eighth-best defense, according to PFN’s Defense+ metric.
Using PFN+ Metrics as a guide, here's our prediction for how the NFL playoffs will shake out 💥 pic.twitter.com/icRWLX9UUX
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 11, 2025
After allowing 2.30 points per drive through the first 10 weeks of the season, the Ravens have trimmed that number to 1.38 points per drive ever since, a trend that makes them as dangerous as anyone to win it all in February.
3) Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 14-3
- Offense+ Rank: 14
- Defense+ Rank: 2
- Special Teams+ Rank: 29
- SOS Rank: 31
The Eagles are the NFC’s No. 2 seed and they were able to rest their most valuable players in Week 18, including Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith.
They need to solve their first-quarter woes if they want to make a deep playoff run. They have a -14 point differential in first quarters — only one Super Bowl champion over the past 12 years posted a negative first-quarter point differential in the regular season. However, the Eagles’ balance makes them a true threat.
Philadelphia will now take on the Packers. During Wild Card weekend, home teams have been clearing expectations at a much higher rate since the shift to an 18-week regular season.
- 2021-24: Home teams covered 61.1% of Wild Card games
- 2013-20: Home teams covered 32% of Wild Card games
4) Minnesota Vikings
Record: 14-3
- Offense+ Rank: 13
- Defense+ Rank: 3
- Special Teams+ Rank: 17
- SOS Rank: 11
Entering the season, sportsbooks had the Vikings’ over/under set at 6.5 wins, so their 14 wins exceeded all expectations. While they had a chance to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a road win over the Lions in Week 18, they came up short and fell to No. 5.
Still, Minnesota is the biggest surprise of the 2024 season, and Sam Darnold looks poised for a lucrative payday when he hits free agency this offseason.
The big question is whether it’ll be Minnesota (who drafted J.J. McCarthy with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft) or another team paying him.
5) Buffalo Bills
Record: 13-4
- Offense+ Rank: 4
- Defense+ Rank: 18
- Special Teams+ Rank: 21
- SOS Rank: 27
The Bills earned the right to sit their starters in Week 18, and the AFC’s No. 2 seed has now made the playoffs in seven of eight seasons under Sean McDermott after a 17-year drought.
However, how this season is perceived will depend on how the postseason turns out.
The Bills are the first offense in NFL history to have 30 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns in a single season. While Josh Allen can wear the cape on any given Sunday, the defense might hold the key.
- Weeks 6-13: 36.5% third down conversion rate allowed
- Weeks 14-17: 57.1% (starters rested in Week 18)
If they can fix that, they have a chance to run through the gauntlet that is the AFC.
6) Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 15-2
- Offense+ Rank: 12
- Defense+ Rank: 14
- Special Teams+ Rank: 19
- SOS Rank: 26
The Chiefs sat most of their starters in Week 18 against the Broncos, so we won’t hold the blowout loss against them. Kansas City clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC and has consistently found a way to win games this season, even if it hasn’t always been pretty.
So, why are the 15-win, back-to-back defending champions sitting at No. 6 in these rankings? Well, PFN’s model isn’t particularly high on the Chiefs due to their weak schedule and mediocre metrics. They don’t rank top-10 offensively or defensively in PFN’s model.
Their postseason experience makes them scary as they pursue the first three-peat in NFL history, but it also wouldn’t be a huge surprise if they are upset earlier than expected.
7) Green Bay Packers
Record: 11-6
- Offense+ Rank: 8
- Defense+ Rank: 10
- Special Teams+ Rank: 25
- SOS Rank: 1
The Packers fell to the No. 7 seed after losing their regular-season finale to the Bears. The win snapped the Packers’ 11-game win streak over their arch-rivals, the longest in the history of the series.
It was also the first time Green Bay lost to a team that had a worse record than them this year. Prior to Week 18, the Packers’ only losses had come against teams ranked ahead of them in our power rankings (versus the Eagles, Vikings, and Lions).
Looking ahead to the Wild Card Round matchup against the Eagles, the biggest concern will be whether Jordan Love is at 100% after getting banged up in Week 18. The Packers will need him at his best against a Philly defense that ranks second in PFN’s Defense+ metric.
8) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 10-7
- Offense+ Rank: 3
- Defense+ Rank: 16
- Special Teams+ Rank: 13
- SOS Rank: 21
The Buccaneers have now won the NFC South for the fourth year in a row.
Not only did they punch their ticket to the playoffs in Week 18, but the Bucs also made sure to get Mike Evans his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season. Evans extended his record of most 1,000-yard seasons to begin a career and tied Jerry Rice’s record of the most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in NFL history.
PFN’s metrics have been high on the Bucs all season since they have a dangerous offense and an impressive resume with wins over the Lions, Eagles, Commanders, and Chargers. Now, the Bucs will host Washington on Wild Card Weekend in a rematch of Week 1.
9) Washington Commanders
Record: 12-5
- Offense+ Rank: 6
- Defense+ Rank: 17
- Special Teams+ Rank: 10
- SOS Rank: 32
Washington’s Week 18 win secured the No. 6 seed in the NFC and prevented the Commanders from having to play the Eagles for a third time this season. Instead, they will face the Bucs, who defeated them 37-20 in Week 1.
With a win over Tampa Bay, Washington will join last year’s Texans as the only teams to win a playoff game the same year they drafted a quarterback top-two overall.
Jayden Daniels seems poised to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award after throwing for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions while rushing for 891 yards and six scores. Daniels ended the regular season ranked ninth in PFN’s QB+ metric, one spot ahead of Patrick Mahomes.
10) Los Angeles Rams
Record: 10-7
- Offense+ Rank: 11
- Defense+ Rank: 24
- Special Teams+ Rank: 24
- SOS Rank: 4
The Rams sat nearly all of their top players in Week 18 with the NFC West title in hand. Though Los Angeles had seeding to play for, head coach Sean McVay prioritized getting some rest for his veteran stars and dropped to the No. 4 seed.
Los Angeles has been extremely inconsistent on both sides of the ball this season, but the best version of the Rams can compete with any team (as evidenced by their wins over the Bills and Vikings). Matthew Stafford had three weeks where he posted top-five QB+ scores this season. However, he also had eight weeks where he ranked 20th or worse.
And while the defense doesn’t rank very highly in Defense+, the Rams also had five top-10 weekly finishes on that side of the ball. Entering the playoffs, the Rams are one of the biggest wild cards in the field, capable of playing a 44-42 fireworks show or a 12-6 slog.
11) Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 11-6
- Offense+ Rank: 17
- Defense+ Rank: 4
- Special Teams+ Rank: 14
- SOS Rank: 29
The Chargers took care of business against the Patriots and Raiders down the stretch to get to 11 wins on the season. However, as we’ve discussed in this space, it is hard to know what to make of Los Angeles.
The Chargers are a well-coached team with a terrific defense, but they played the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL this season. They finished fourth in our Defense+ rankings, largely thanks to their dominance against bottom-half offenses. Los Angeles faced eight teams ranked in the bottom half of our Offense+ rankings, going 7-1 in those matchups and allowing just 11.9 points per game while achieving a 64.0% defensive success rate.
The Chargers are one of four teams without a win by 3 or fewer points this season.
They won 11 games this regular season while the other three teams on that list —- Jets, Giants, and Browns —- totaled 11 wins combined. pic.twitter.com/YWoSapXVSe
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 11, 2025
They went just 2-4 against teams above .500, with both wins coming against the Broncos (in Weeks 6 and 16). It will be interesting to see how Los Angeles fares in the postseason.
12) Denver Broncos
Record: 10-7
- Offense+ Rank: 16
- Defense+ Rank: 1
- Special Teams+ Rank: 8
- SOS Rank: 25
In Week 18, the Broncos clinched a playoff spot with a blowout win over the Chiefs’ JV squad. Sure, Kansas City was resting its starters, but a win is a win.
Now, Denver will be able to get some playoff experience for Bo Nix. The No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft exceeded all expectations throughout his rookie campaign, and Week 18 was his best outing yet. Nix completed 26 of 29 passes for 321 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions while rushing for 47 yards.
While Denver has to feel good about having its quarterback of the future, it’s the Broncos’ terrific defense that makes this team so tough. They are currently the No. 1-ranked defense in PFN’s Defense+ metric.
13) Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 10-7
- Offense+ Rank: 25
- Defense+ Rank: 12
- Special Teams+ Rank: 1
- SOS Rank: 23
A month ago, we pointed out the Steelers’ brutal remaining schedule and said that we’d learn a lot about this squad down the stretch, with games against the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals. Prior to facing these contenders, Pittsburgh had benefitted from playing the fifth-easiest schedule in the NFL.
Well, that tough stretch led to four straight losses for Pittsburgh.
Fortunately for the Steelers, they had already clinched a playoff spot. However, no team wants to limp into the postseason with four straight losses, and this team is looking significantly less scary than they did several weeks ago. Pittsburgh’s offense now ranks No. 25 in Offense+ and there’s talk that Russell Wilson should be benched for Justin Fields.
14) Houston Texans
Record: 10-7
- Offense+ Rank: 28
- Defense+ Rank: 7
- Special Teams+ Rank: 15
- SOS Rank: 20
After winning five of their first six games, including an impressive win over the Bills, the Texans have looked like a completely different team throughout the second half of the season. Houston’s offense is now ranked 28th overall in PFN’s Offense+ metric.
Houston dropped six of its final 11 games, including embarrassing losses against the Jets and Titans. Part of this is due to injuries, as the team is now missing several key pieces, including Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs, and Jimmie Ward.
The Texans are looking shaky entering the postseason and aren’t striking much fear into the hearts of their opponents these days.