It’s Wild Card Weekend and while redraft leagues might be in the rearview mirror, there’s still plenty of fantasy football formats to play over the next few weeks.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant tight end in every game this weekend.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Cade Otton | TB (vs. WAS)
If you’ve been reading all season, thanks! If that’s the case, you’re likely not looking for hot Cade Otton takes — you know where I stand.
If not, thanks for joining us for the playoff run. I break down every player for every game for every week during the season, and I encourage you to hang with us into and through next season if you want to improve your fantasy knowledge base.
For those of you who are new here, I’m in the camp that Otton (when healthy; he’s currently battling a knee issue) is a fine play when Mike Evans is sidelined and a flat-out fade when that’s not the case. Tampa Bay’s WR1 is at full-go, and that makes me a full-no on their TE.
Otton’s production with Evans on the field, 2024:
- 0.84 yards per route
- 12.1% target share
- 19.1% red-zone target rate
Otton’s production without Evans on the field, 2024:
- 1.37 yards per route
- 17.7% target share
- 26.7% red-zone target rate
Otton turned two targets into five yards way back in the Week 1 meeting with the Commanders. Although much has changed since early September, Cardio Cade isn’t an investment I’m interested in making. If his ownership spikes because of the perceived favorable nature of this matchup, even better!
Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs. DEN)
I’m bullish on the Bills from a trending standpoint, even in a matchup that finished the regular season atop our Defense+ metrics, and Dalton Kincaid is a part of that optimism.
- 2024: Targeted on 27.2% of routes
- 2023: Targeted on 19.8% of routes
Being on the field has been the problem, and that’s a real problem. Kincaid hasn’t played half the snaps in any of his three games back after missing a month, though the underlying metrics support the skill set, and I’m okay with betting on talent at this position more than others.
A fully functional version of Kincaid was on the field for 63.4% of snaps last season. To me, that potential is in play now that we are in a win-or-go-home setting, and Dawson Knox just doesn’t offer the same juice to an offense that needs to produce at a high level for this team to excel.
With Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta on bye this week, I wouldn’t look at you sideways if you projected Kincaid to lead the position in PPR points during the NFL’s second season, an upside that isn’t being priced into his playoff-long ADP right now.
Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs. LAC)
For me, Dalton Schultz is Houston’s Will Dissly. By that, I mean he has a path to being the second-most targeted pass catcher on this team without having to squint too hard, but the upside is limited.
The two are priced near each other in the DFS streets, which makes complete sense to me. At this range of the position, I’m viewing rostering a punt TE play as a bet on the quarterback. And if I’m going that route, give me Justin Herbert over C.J. Stroud with a bullet.
So no, I’m not going to have exposure to Schultz this week. Stroud has been inconsistent, which has resulted in his tight end failing to reach 35 receiving yards in 13 of 17 games. If we assume that the yardage is going to be difficult to come by, you need TD equity that simply doesn’t exist — no end-zone targets in 10 of his past 11 games.
I guess you could look at Schultz vacuuming in at least six targets in three of his past four healthy games (I’m ignoring Week 18) and cite Houston’s seventh ranking in pass rate over expectation this season in a way to get some cheap PPR value. There’s a path for a 5-50 type of stat line, but I like the Chargers in this game, and the better scoring environment has me siding with their TE if I’m living in this range.
Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. GB)
Dallas Goedert returned from a knee injury that cost him four games last week, and Philadelphia made a point to get him involved early. Grant Calcaterra hasn’t reached 35 receiving yards since October, and his failure to provide value to the Eagles’ passing game has me optimistic that Goedert will assume a full-time role this weekend.
Is that enough to matter with both star receivers earning looks at a high rate?
I’m not sure there’s much in the way of the ceiling when it comes to Goedert’s profile, but this is a potent offense with a multi-game projection — that’s enough to have my attention in playoff leagues.
In weekly contests, I don’t mind Goedert, but I’m not landing there due to my liking the two TEs who sandwich him in pricing more (Dalton Kincaid and Tucker Kraft).
You’re rostering Goedert as a floor play. There’s nothing wrong with that, but in a position that weighs touchdowns heavily, I’m not getting there for a player who hasn’t scored more than three touchdowns in a season since 2021.
Goedert caught four passes for 31 yards in Week 1 against these Packers, a stat line that essentially matches my mean expectation.
Dawson Knox | BUF (vs. DEN)
We are nearing the three-month anniversary since the last time Dawson Knox found paydirt, and Jan. 22 will mark two years since his last game with five receptions.
Knox is a nice veteran presence on a team that needs to be buttoned up if they are going to earn the first championship in franchise history. However, that doesn’t make him a viable fantasy option, no matter the format.
Knox’s participation rate:
- Week 14 at Rams: 81.5% snap share (29 routes)
- Week 15 at Lions: 73.5% snap share (26 routes)
- Week 16 vs. Patriots: 56.9% snap share (20 routes)
- Week 17 vs. Jets: 46.8% snap share (14 routes)
It’s never the wrong time to make the right call. Dalton Kincaid is the superior target earner, and Knox’s role is going the way of the dinosaur. There are punt options available across the board in any slate that are more worth your time.
Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs. PIT)
Keep reading, and you’ll get my anti-Mark Andrews stance. And if that comes through, a pro-Isaiah Likely angle is a good way to benefit.
The 24-year-old has caught seven of eight targets for 104 yards and a score against Pittsburgh this season on just 35 routes. That’s a tiny sample, but Likely’s 56.9% snap share and 20.5% on-field target share at least have my interest in this specific matchup.
We know the TE position has touchdown equity given Andrews’ success, and I don’t think the market is valuing Likely’s potential to walk into an advantageous role properly. Given Baltimore’s potential to win multiple games, this is a path I’m interested in going for postseason-long formats.
Mark Andrews | BAL (vs. PIT)
Are we at least a little concerned that Mark Andrews might be fancy Nick Westbrook-Ikhine?
Obviously, Andrews’ résumé trumps that of Tennessee’s WR, but we are looking at a very thin profile that relies on touchdowns at an uncomfortable level. If there was a change in usage, maybe I could get there, but there really hasn’t been:
- 2024: Targeted on 28.3% of red-zone routes and had 11 TDs
- 2023: Targeted on 35% of red-zone routes and had six TDs
More magnified, when looking closer at things, are the signs of decline. Andrews’ YAC is down 15% from his career norm, and his on-field target share this season set a new career low.
I’m out.
I’m choosing to overlook the fact that Andrews has been targeted on 24.3% of his routes against the Steelers this season (all other games: 18.8%), as I’m not sold on that being too sticky. We’ve seen a better version of Andrews vanish in the postseason before (single-digit PPR points in five of six career postseason games with no touchdowns on those 169 routes).
Andrews’ name and his scoring have set expectations (in all fantasy formats and in the betting markets) too high for me to invest in any positive stance.
Pat Freiermuth | PIT (at BAL)
It took Pat Freiermuth just 78 targets this season to haul in a career-high 65 passes, a level of efficiency that is very encouraging. Freiermuth’s path to mattering in DFS this week is through volume in a very conservative offense that will be designed to stay on the field and, thus, keep Lamar Jackson off of it.
There are some minor trends to like. The fact that Freiermuth has been targeted on 13 of his 49 playoff routes speaks to the comfort-food sort of role he assumes this time of year. Plus, he did catch every pass thrown his way against the Ravens during the regular season.
Of course, there are two sides of that coin. It took Freiermuth 58 routes to earn those five targets that produced just 30 yards (8.5% on-field target share, down from his 17.9% rate in all other games).
Pittsburgh’s 17 implied point total is a major concern and is why I’m not too interested in going in this direction in any format. I think you’re looking at 5-7 PPR points this week with limited win equity — that’s not going to cut it in any level of playoff fantasy competition.
T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at LAR)
With each passing week, my finger gets a little more itchy to take an aggressive approach on positive T.J. Hockenson props. I haven’t yet pulled the trigger in a major way, but the time might be here.
Hockenson’s participation progression, 2024:
- Weeks 1-8: DNP
- Weeks 9-11: 45.5% snap share
- Weeks 12-15: 64.2% snap share
- Weeks 16-18: 71.6% snap share
The Johnny Mundt/Josh Oliver contingent caught three of four passes for 40 yards and a touchdown when these teams first met, a game that took place before Hockenson was cleared to return. It’s very possible he soaks up that usage and then some against a defense that ranked 31st in yards allowed per attempt via the short pass.
Those targets aren’t always exciting, but I expect them to be wide open as the Rams (28th in opponent deep passer rating) allocate resources to slow down the quick strike duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Sam Darnold wasn’t shy about pushing the envelope in that Week 8 meeting (10.4 aDOT, his second-highest of the season), and with Los Angeles able to escape with a victory, I’m willing to wager that they are game-planning to get the ball out of his hands much quicker this time around.
Sportsbooks are under no pressure to post prop lines for the final game of the week with any urgency. Yet, when they do, I’ll be looking at the prices on Hockenson to clear 3.5 and 4.5 catches.
Tucker Kraft, | GB (at PHI)
It sounds as if Jordan Love is going to be okay (fingers crossed). Assuming that’s the case, there’s a world in which a Tucker Kraft flier makes sense in a Wild Card DFS setting.
With Christian Watson out and Green Bay’s passing-game targets being variant to begin with, embracing the unknown is a reasonable path, especially if you think the Packers are playing from behind in this spot.
- Week 14 at Lions: 21.7% on-field target share
- Week 15 at Seahawks: 7.4% on-field target share
- Week 16 vs. Saints: 21.1% on-field target share
- Week 17 at Vikings: 10.3% on-field target share
- Week 18 vs. Bears: 25.9% on-field target share
Kraft has five straight games with a 20+ yard reception, a run that matches the longest streak at the position this season. That gives him the potential to create splash plays and/or reign in volume. If Kraft can do either of those things, he’s likely to pay off his price tag in Philadelphia.
I’m not the least bit worried about an underwhelming Week 1 showing in this matchup (2-27-0), but I would caution against going this route in playoff-long formats given the very low win expectancy for the green and gold.
Will Dissly | LAC (at HOU)
Did you know that Will Dissly’s target rate (targets earned divided by routes run) is within 1.5 percentage points of Travis Kelce and George Kittle? Ahead of Jake Ferguson and T.J. Hockenson?
The production has been spotty at best, but Dissly is at least involved in this offense, and with only one constant in the passing game (Ladd McConkey), this is the type of dart I don’t hate throwing if you’re in need of some salary relief in a DFS setting or waiting to address the position in a postseason draft.
You get the target uncertainty, win equity, and cheap exposure to a franchise quarterback whose star seems to be on the rise (Justin Herbert’s last three games: 911 passing yards with seven touchdowns).
Zach Ertz | WAS (at TB)
There are just four tight ends who have more games this season with at least seven PPR points than Zach Ertz (12). That may seem like a low bar to clear, but is it?
Sam LaPorta didn’t get there.
Travis Kelce didn’t get there.
The veteran TE is spending 57% of his time in the slot, which has allowed Ertz to cash in on layup targets (5+ targets in six of his past eight games). Those looks project favorably in this specific spot against a Buccaneers defense that allows 9.1 yards per slot pass, the second-most in the NFL.
Ertz’s value has been the product of touchdowns (six over his past seven games), and while chasing scores can be dangerous, he’s in the right offense to do it. Washington has been the second-best red-zone offense since Week 10 (TD on 80% of red-zone trips).
The Commanders’ offense has grown, and Ertz has found his footing with time, giving me confidence that he rather easily clears the 3-28-0 stat line he gave us in Week 1 against the Bucs.
In postseason-long leagues, Ertz is a tough sell. At variable positions like this, I want game equity, and even if the Commanders were to pull off the upset this week (I think it’s live), I don’t see them getting past the Lions (assuming the Eagles handle the Packers).
Dalton Kincaid and Will Dissly are the lesser-thought-of tight ends who I’d rather gamble on in structures like that.