It’s Wild Card Weekend and while redraft leagues might be in the rearview mirror, there’s still plenty of fantasy football formats to play over the next few weeks.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant wide receiver in every game on Sunday.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. GB)
A.J. Brown is dealing with a bit of a lingering knee issue, though reports have yet to label it as anything serious. Given that Week 18 meant nothing for the Eagles, I’m not reading into his inactive status as anything more than management and fully expect him to suit up as Philadelphia looks to make a run.
His counting numbers are essentially in line with what we’ve come to expect (80-90 yards per game with a score every other game) and the big plays continue to be there (40+ yard grab in five of his 13 games). The consistent volume and downfield usage propelled him to a career-best 3.0 yards per route this season, something that was made possible thanks to a 5-119-1 stat line in Brazil against these Packers to open the season (34.5% target share).
With Jaire Alexander on the shelf, this Green Bay defense features moving pieces that aren’t exactly well-equipped to deal with a versatile offense like what Philadelphia brings to the table. Sam Darnold carving them up in Week 17 was one thing, but Caleb Williams having no issue in force-feeding his top threat the ball last weekend (DJ Moore caught nine of 10 targets for 86 yards and a score) is another.
The Packers are a popular upset pick for this round and in the NFC playoff picture as a whole. I don’t see it. If you’re of that belief, you avoid a player like Brown, but with that thought lingering, the odds of you getting an alpha receiver on the team with the second-best odds to represent the conference in New Orleans at a minor discount are there.
I’m in!
Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. DEN)
Amari Cooper was heavily used in the shootout loss to the Rams but has largely been underwhelming since coming to Upstate New York (37.1 receiving yards per game).
His 14.4-yard aDOT with the Bills creates a path to the upside against a stingy Broncos defense, but if Denver elects to stick Patrick Surtain II on him and make other receivers beat them, this could be another disappointing performance.
It was Tee Higgins, not Ja’Marr Chase, who led Cincinnati receivers in fantasy points against Denver. It was Tyler Lockett, not DK Metcalf. It was Chris Godwin, not Mike Evans.
I still have Cooper ranked the highest of the Buffalo WRs, but not by much — this is an interesting spot for Keon Coleman, and if Denver gives him single coverage, this could be another situation where the secondary receiver puts up primary production.
Christian Watson | GB (at PHI)
Matt LaFleur speculated following the Week 18 loss to the Bears that he wasn’t “super confident” that Christian Watson would be available in the short term after suffering a knee injury and he was right – the 25-year-old tore his ACL and will likely miss the beginning of next season.
Watson has struggled to regain the form he showcased for a brief moment as a rookie. In Weeks 11-13 of 2022, he rattled off a pair of 100-yard games with seven touchdown receptions on 27 targets — since then, he has had three 100-yard games and seven touchdown catches on his résumé across 131 targets.
Only time will tell when it comes to how productive he can be as he progresses through rehab, but in the short term, Dontayvion Wicks projects as the next man up. When comparing his profile this season with Watson on/off the field, he has the potential to give this offense the type of deep threat they need access to if they are going to upset the second-seeded Eagles.
Philadelphia boasts the second-lowest opponent completion percentage on deep passes, and that makes stretching the field an uphill battle for Jordan Love without Watson. Still, Wicks has shown enough to think that he can help fill the void.
Cooper Kupp | LAR (vs. MIN)
There’s no two ways about it – the past three games for Cooper Kupp (Weeks 15-17) have been an abject disaster. He’s turned 67 routes into just four catches and 53 yards on nine targets, fueling thoughts that Father Time took some sort of turbo boost and tracked him down at hyper speed.
I’m not so sure. At least, not for this week. We can deal with the future as we get closer, but I’m not hesitating to call his number in DFS contests this week, especially if the ownership shakes out in our favor.
Minnesota is the most blitz-heavy defense in the NFL (38.6%) after pacing the league last season. In 2022, before Brian Flores took over this unit, they ranked 23rd – safe to say it’s not an accident. Both Puka Nacua and Kupp have been outstanding when Matthew Stafford is blitzed, but that’s the status quo for Nacua. For Kupp? This is the situation he needs to be in.
- Blitzed: 41.4% production over expectation, 2.4 points per target, 3.8 yards per route
- Not blitzed: 11% production below expectation, 1.5 points per target, 1.5 yards per route
If you want to venture into the betting markets, we can get even a little more creative. This general path is likely to land me on Kupp overs when yardage and reception lines post, but the touchdown numbers are up and have an early sprinkle from me (+150 anytime, +1000 first). Flores is aggressive the second he gets out of bed, but it’s amplified at the beginning of halves, a time when he has the chance to scheme up a rested unit and dictate the tempo.
- Blitz rate in the first and third quarters: 40.8%
Blitz rate in the second and fourth quarters: 37.3%
Kupp earned eight targets and scored in the Week 8 meeting with Minnesota, and I could see a similar usage pattern this week. Let’s get on the board early and go from there!
Courtland Sutton | DEN (at BUF)
Courtland Sutton has scored 18 times on 225 targets over the past two seasons (previous two seasons: four touchdowns on 207 targets). Touchdowns can be fluky on a game-to-game basis, nevermind season-to-season, but the usage trends are very much in his favor, and that is what I’m comfortable with in this profile
This season, Sutton has seen a career-high 17 end-zone targets and has been thrown at on 31.8% of his red-zone routes (up from 23.3% last season). This offense is better than we could have imagined and they are routinely trusting their WR1 with finishing drives, something that makes the spike in scoring rate much more sustainable.
And it’s only getting better.
During the second half of the season, Sutton has seen 11 end-zone targets, a number that trails only triple-crown winner Ja’Marr Chase, future Hall of Famer Davante Adams, and maybe the best receiver in the sport in Justin Jefferson. The Bills are an average red-zone defense that allows touchdowns on 24.6% of all drives (22nd), giving us every reason to think that Denver’s WR1 can once again produce.
All the signs look great, including the projected game script, but this is the spot where I’m getting my leverage. I’m not confident that any member of Denver garners a ton of ownership. Thus, I’m doubling down in a non-correlated way for my upside lineup and it doesn’t include their alpha target earner.
DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. GB)
DeVonta Smith led the Eagles in catches when these two teams played in Week 1 (7-84-0 on eight targets). That was the beginning of a nice run to open the season (four touchdowns in seven games with over 60 receiving yards in six of them).
Once we got comfortable with him, however, things went sideways during a midseason swoon. That wasn’t a fun stretch for season-long managers, but we appear to be out of it now, and that means you can deploy him with confidence.
- Weeks 9-11: 16% target rate
- Weeks 14-17: 28% target rate
The missed time in the middle was the result of a hamstring injury that appears to be very much in the past. Not only is he back to earning looks at a high rate, but he’s moving down the field like what we’ve seen in previous years (Week 17 vs. Dallas: 14.2-yard aDOT). I prefer A.J. Brown at his cost this week, but with the Packers continuing to work around the Jaire Alexander absence, there’s certainly a path to Smith having a big performance.
He’s a top-10 receiver for me this week.
Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at PHI)
Dontayvion Wicks was held without a catch when these teams met in Brazil, but the math has changed since.
Christian Watson (ACL) is done for the season, and that opens up a role that the Packers will need if they are going to pull off an upset that many seem to think is possible. This season, 72.9% of Wicks’ routes have been run alongside Watson, making the scraping of data for the other 27.1% a small sample, but it’s all we have when trying to look at this specific situation.
With Watson off the field, Wicks’ aDOT has spiked by 26.7%. Those deep looks are his path to success in most matchups, but probably not on Sunday – the Eagles are the best defense against long passes in terms of yards per attempt and yards per completion (over 11% better than the league average in both of those categories).
That very much caps the upside of Wicks in the Wild Card Round, but it doesn’t completely rule him out. His involvement in the red zone has been much greater with Watson off the field (12.7% of his targets, up from 1.8% with him sharing the perimeter role).
The target distribution in Green Bay has been close to impossible to forecast weekly this season. Removing one name from the mix gives us a little more clarity, but it’s important to not confuse “more clarity” with “clarity.”
There are still plenty of names capable of sucking up usage in this offense, and the Packers’ clearest path to success is a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs. I’m not tempting fate by going to this passing game in most of my builds.
Jalen McMillan | TB (vs. WAS)
I compared Jalen McMillan to Amon-Ra St. Brown in this space last week and he went out and lived up to expectations with the NFC South on the line (5-74-1 against the Saints).
By no means am I victory-lapping. The kid has been great for a month now, and I didn’t exactly take the stance that he would become St. Brown so much as highlight his path of a similar trajectory, but he’s every bit ready to produce at a consistent level.
He only saw one target way back in Week 1 when these teams squared off, but he made it count (32-yard touchdown), and he should get plenty of chances to make splash plays this week.
There is, however, one risk factor that has me nervous. Marshon Lattimore has done a great job blanketing Mike Evans in the past. If Washington operates with that as a defensive game plan, there’s a world in which McMillan is seeing a whole lot of (defensive) attention.
That thought process is enough to have me moving off of him more than I’d like, but this is a tough slate with a huge middle-tier of receivers. If you want to load up on three receivers in this price range and hope that two pay off in a big way, I have no problem going in this direction. But the way I’m building, I haven’t landed on much in the way of McMillan exposure.
It’s a terrifying life to live.
Jayden Reed | GB (at PHI)
I was pretty firm with my stance this preseason that Jayden Reed was set to be Green Bay’s unquestioned WR1 with a handful of players fighting for scraps behind him.
That simply hasn’t happened.
Heck, I was in trouble with that call from the jump. When these two teams played in Week 1, there was no real separation in the receiver profiles, something that hasn’t really changed.
Week 1 vs. Eagles, 2024:
- Romeo Doubs: 33 routes and 12.6 expected PPR points
- Christian Watson: 27 routes and 11.1 expected PPR points
- Reed: 27 routes and 10.5 expected PPR points
Reed did haul in a 70-yard touchdown in the second quarter of that game to give him the edge in actual fantasy points, but the split role has been more sticky than spike plays like that.
Watson will miss this game and the entire postseason, but Dontayvion Wicks looms as the next man up and this Packers offense is counting on the running game more now than at any point during the season. The Eagles are the best playoff team in terms of yards allowed per slot pass this season, making Reed’s already iffy role that much more risky.
Paying down for Tucker Kraft to clear the tight end position might be the play here. Green Bay projects to be in a negative game script and if you believe that, you’re going to want some exposure to this passing game. But with the target hierarchy still unsettled, I’m having a hard time going there with any level of confidence.
Jordan Addison | MIN (at LAR)
Jordan Addison earned just three targets and put just 22 yards on the board in Week 8 against these Rams (27 routes), but that was before his breakout. Since Week 11, only eight receivers have scored more PPR points than Addison – that comes with Justin Jefferson functioning at full capacity (he’s WR6 over that stretch).
The Rams are the worst playoff team against the pass in terms of yards per attempt, something that could allow Addison to break the slate should he find himself on the end of a long play or two, giving you leverage on all of the Jefferson teams.
While he seems to have established himself as a suitable Robin to Jefferson’s Batman, there is no denying the risk. T.J. Hockenson’s playing time is on the rise, Jalen Nailor is still around, and we did just see him produce a dud in the most important game of the season (one catch on six targets for zero yards in Detroit). He’s far from bust-proof, but he’s priced in the George Pickens/Zay Flowers tier. That’s a fine spot to land if your roster build puts you there.
Full disclosure, I’m paying up a touch for Terry McLaurin or Cooper Kupp before going this direction.
Justin Jefferson | MIN (at LAR)
Arguably the best receiver in the sport is going to do best-receiver-in-the-sport-type things more often than not. I could tell you that, in Weeks 1-9, Justin Jefferson scored 33.8% more PPR points than expected based on his target diet and while he’s still on the plus side of things since, his +5.3% is still symbolic of a struggle by his lofty standards. That’s true and maybe that scares you.
For me, that feels like spending too much time in front of a database, something I am 100% guilty of. Jefferson has posted a target rate north of 25% in four straight seasons. When a receiver has seen that sort of involvement against the Rams, he’s had a field day (20.4 PPR PPG).
We got an 8-115-0 stat line from Jefferson in Week 8 against these Rams, a game in which he earned a 39.1% target share. I have no concerns about his ability to get open in any matchup. The fact that we have visual confirmation of his ability to do so in this spot only confirms that.
If you wanted to label Jefferson in a tier unto himself this weekend at the position, I wouldn’t fight you. Rostering him requires some creativity, but there are enough value pieces to make it work.
In playoff-long formats, I lean Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown over Jefferson, as I have both of those teams penciled in for an edge in terms of games played, but it’s awfully tight at the top of the board, especially without the AFC having someone I feel comfortable putting in that conversation.
Keon Coleman | BUF (vs. DEN)
The Broncos ranked second in the league in pressure rate this season and are the only team inside the top five to qualify for the postseason. Could that open the door for a Keon Coleman breakout? His target rate is the least impacted when Josh Allen is under duress among Bills receivers, and the Broncos have quietly allowed the eighth-highest completion percentage on deep balls since Week 11.
Bills pass catchers’ target splits with Allen, 2024:
- Coleman: 16.3% when pressured vs. 18.2% when not
- Khalil Shakir: 21.2% when pressured vs. 31.3% when not
- Amari Cooper: 12.8% when pressured vs. 29.3% when not
- Dalton Kincaid: 21% when pressured vs. 32.2% when not
I’m nothing if not a sharer of information, so while I’m not labeling Coleman as the next DK Metcalf, the profiles are similar.
Metcalf’s profile, 2024:
- Second-round pick standing 6’4” tall
- 18.8% regular season on-field target share (13.7 aDOT)
- TD on 7% of targets
Coleman’s profile, 2024:
- Second-round pick standing 6’4” tall
- 17.6% regular season on-field target share (15.5 aDOT)
- TD on 7% of targets
That’s at least interesting, isn’t it? Metcalf, like Coleman, had a mid-season explosion game with 120+ yards and a 50-yard reception while earning double-digit targets in the regular season finale.
Metcalf’s introduction to the postseason was a 7-160-1 showing in Philadelphia. Asking for that is a lot, but I like the way things line up for the 33rd-overall pick.
Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. DEN)
My initial thought with this matchup was that I’d be in on Khalil Shakir. The idea that he’d likely be able to avoid Patrick Surtain II while in the slot and that Denver’s second-ranked run defense (by EPA) could force Buffalo to supplement the traditional ground game with short, quick-hitting passes had me intrigued.
Upon further review, the call on the field has been overturned.
The Broncos are the best defense against the slot in terms of touchdown rate and rank third in opponent passer rating when throwing there. Now, they are only average when it comes to completion percentage and yards per attempt, so maybe there is a path for Shakir to pay off his price tag, but I don’t see much in the way of a ceiling for him.
You just read why I’m high on Keon Coleman as a value play this week, and I’m only willing to take on this Denver defense in so many ways. Shakir’s catch rate was what made him a special fantasy asset for the better part of 25 straight weeks, but the road has gotten a little bumpy of late.
- Weeks 1-9: 93.3% catch rate
- Weeks 10-17: 61.8% catch rate
If we can no longer take efficiency as a given, I’m not willing to do the mental gymnastics it takes to roster a player like Shakir in this specific matchup. That’s a shame because I think he’s a solid player who means a lot to a team that should win. Unfortunately, we have to make some tough calls in a six-game slate – leaving him out of my lineups is one of them.
Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN (at BUF)
It’s not what you said, it’s how you said it.
We’ve all heard it and we all fear what comes next – luckily, the fantasy football version is a positive. For Marvin Mims Jr. in this Sean Payton offense, it’s not how often he is on the field, but how he’s used. He ran 146 routes this season, just three more than a season ago, but he generated 22 more targets and scored 47.1 more fantasy points.
We often preach patience with young receivers throughout their rookie season, but considering that growth is not linear at the position, why not extend that courtesy into Year 2 with a changing offensive structure?
Mims has been coming on in a big way and played a critical role in the Broncos qualifying for the postseason … and I think he could keep the good times rolling!
The Bills own a bottom-five blitz rate and a bottom-10 pressure rate this season (their pressure rate sits at 32.5%, the lowest among playoff teams). Not to be overly dramatic but Mims turns into an All-Pro receiver when Bo Nix isn’t sped up.
Yards per route run when their QB is not pressured, 2024:
- CeeDee Lamb: 2.70
- Malik Nabers: 2.66
- Justin Jefferson: 2.64
- Mims: 2.62
- Drake London: 2.61
- Tee Higgins: 2.54
The Bills rank 20th in opponent deep completion percentage (45%) and 21st in deep touchdown rate (7.3%), leaving the door open for Mims to make the type of splash play that will be needed for the road team to pull off the upset.
The risk goes without saying – the next game Mims runs 15 routes in a Nix game will be his first. We can force Sean Payton’s hand to put him on the field, but we can be impressed with the chances he has gotten: 28 catches (32 targets) on his 84 routes since Week 10.
The Broncos rank sixth in pass rate over expectation this season after checking in at 24th in Payton’s first season. It’s almost like having a hand-picked QB to run your system helps, go figure. I expect that “expectations” part of that metric to work in our favor with Denver opening as an 8.5-point underdog.
There’s no flier I like more in Wild Card DFS contests this week. For playoff formats, the math changes a bit, as you’d have to like Denver to advance more than I do, so tread lightly there. In weekly GPP formats, by all means, shoot your shot!
Mike Evans | TB (vs. WAS)
It took some doing, but we got Mike Evans to his 1,000 yards last weekend, and he is very much trending in the right direction to make an impact in both Wild Card and postseason-long formats.
I find that players like this are the ones who swing those extended events. He’s a clear star, but with his team being involved in a coin-flip first game, there’s not the same level of excitement that a player like A.J. Brown generates, a similar player with a greater chance to advance.
Evans is the top-scoring PPR receiver since Week 13 who qualified for the playoffs, thanks in large part to earning 9.8 targets per game over that stretch. Based on his résumé, I see no reason to think that changes this week – 12.3% production over expectation for his playoff career with 25+ points in three of his past five postseason games.
If you want to get a little more specific in slicing the data, he’s thrived as a playoff favorite (23.5 PPG compared to 12.9 as an underdog) and that’s the situation he finds himself in this week.
Dragging down his DFS ownership number is the matchup with Marshon Lattimore. The two did battle on a twice-annual basis while Lattimore was with the New Orleans Saints, and the matchups have largely gone the way of the talented cornerback.
Evans’ career splits:
- Evans vs. Saints: 79 air yards per game with a 17.5% on-field target share
- Evans vs. the rest of the NFL: 125.8 air yards per game with a 24.3% on-field target share
Those numbers are enough to have me leery, but if I see a low enough ownership projection entering the weekend, I’d be willing to throw caution to the wind with a few lineups with the thought being that divisional games simply play differently. This version of Baker Mayfield is capable of keeping his WR1 fed, even in a difficult spot.
That said, I’m more likely to attack this game on the ground. I think the Bucs can control this game, and if that’s going to be the case, we should get a heavy dose of Bucky Irving. Personally, I like that angle with the Commanders passing attack rostered on the other end, though that plays into my projection for how this game will go.
If you like the Commanders, flipping my build on its head with a Mayfield-Evans-Brian Robinson core is plenty reasonable.
Puka Nacua | LAR (vs. MIN)
CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the only receivers with more yards and a higher catch rate than Puka Nacua over the past two seasons. He’s pretty clearly taken the league by storm and has essentially put to bed the idea that this is a split WR1 role – he’s the alpha in Los Angeles and everyone falls in line behind him.
He was ejected early in the first meeting with the Seahawks – all he has done since is post a 142.4-catch pace. We’ve seen the Rams ramp up their desire to get him the ball. Be it a recent surge in rushing attempts or an aDOT that is down 14.9% from his historic rookie season, they are making it their weekly mission to funnel opportunities his way. That’s all we as fantasy managers can realistically ask for.
The dip in the average depth of target is what has me most encouraged in this specific spot. We saw him haul in seven of nine targets for 106 yards against the blitz-happy Vikings back in Week 8. A similar level of success wouldn’t surprise me this week given how little time it takes for him to separate from coverage.
One of my takes from earlier is that I like this spot even more for Kupp and I stand by that. Nacua’s price tag on DraftKings is 18.8% higher. While I do believe he’s the clear No. 1, I still believe that Kupp can thrive in a spot like this. If you like the Rams to pull off the upset, go ahead and grab Nacua in your postseason formats, but in the scope of Wild Card weekend, I’m embracing the discount and rolling with Kupp.
Romeo Doubs | GB (at PHI)
Romeo Doubs’ profile is starting to get very interesting, especially if you think the Packers can make some noise in the NFC. Now, it should be noted that Doubs was a late add to the Week 18 injury report and ultimately missed the game with an illness, though the Packers were playing for positioning and not their postseason lives in that game.
Packers WRs’ air yards per game since Week 12:
- Doubs: 75 yards
- Christian Watson: 74.3 yards
- Dontayvion Wicks: 42.2 yards
- Jayden Reed: 33.3 yards
We know that Watson is out for the remainder of the season and that Doubs led this team in targets when these teams kicked off their seasons in Brazil. He’s out-scored Reed in three of their past four games together, and while the DFS industry has priced the two next to one another, I expect ownership to either pay up a touch (DeVonta Smith) or down a few hundred dollars (Jalen McMillan).
This is a nice buying window, and those are hard to find in a six-game slate.
Terry McLaurin | WAS (at TB)
Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes during the regular season, more than his previous two best seasons combined. He’s been nothing short of special. Among the 35 receivers with 100 targets this season, he led the way in production relative to expectation this season (+32.2%).
The Falcons elected to cut off their nose despite their face and make it their mission to slow McLaurin down — they won the battle, but not the war.
McLaurin was held to just one catch, but the Commanders still won. If you remove that very aggressive defensive game plan, his production jumps to +39.6%, a rate that would be the second-best for a qualified receiver since 2016 (2023 Brandon Aiyuk holds the crown).
The Bucs don’t have a corner like A.J. Terrell Jr., nor have they shown the propensity to defend as the Falcons did in that Week 17 matchup. The bankable volume in the game with the highest projected point total should have McLaurin garnering as much ownership as anyone at the position.
From a game theory point of view, I think there’s something to a Jayden Daniels stack that doesn’t include McLaurin, but that’s more a conversation for huge contests that require creativity. If you’re strictly looking for what an optimizer is going to spit out, McLaurin is going to fit in most lineups this week.
And if you’re like me and believe Washington can pull off the minor upset, he’s a strong play in playoff-long formats as well.