It’s Wild Card Weekend and while redraft leagues might be in the rearview mirror, there’s still plenty of fantasy football formats to play over the next few weeks.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant quarterback in every game this weekend.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Baker Mayfield | TB (vs. WAS)
In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season. He’s playing at a level above any ceiling I set for him this summer and that has him ready to go head-to-head with the explosive Jayden Daniels in what could be the most fantasy-friendly game of the week.
Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season. I have him penciled in to extend that streak in this spot against a Washington defense that can be had when they ramp up the aggression (24th in pressure rate when blitzing).
I do trust this Commanders defense more now than I did back in Week 1 when Mayfield lit them up for 289 yards and four scores through the air, but they still check in below average. If Daniels is pushing the Bucs to score, the fantasy points could pile up.
The nice part about rostering Mayfield in DFS is that your roster construction pretty much takes care of itself. This is a condensed offense (Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are the only pass catchers that have my eye) and in going this direction, you get leverage off of what figures to be a very chalky Bucky Irving.
Pencil in a bring-back option (if you think the Bucs will have to air it out, maybe you believe they are playing from behind and that could mean a more friendly game script for Brian Robinson) and you’ve got the foundation for a reasonable lineup with some price flexibility.
Bo Nix | DEN (at BUF)
Bo Nix made NFL history as the first rookie QB with 3+ TD passes and a 75% completion rate in four games. He also matched the franchise record for such games in a season (Peyton Manning had four in both 2012 and 2013). We knew that Sean Payton got his guy in the draft, we just had no idea that this would be a fantasy-friendly situation from the jump.
Everyone is picking the Bills to win this game, but few people figure to land on Nix. In what figures to be a fantasy-friendly script for this passing game, Nix could very well be put in a position where he needs to do it all, a nice role given the discounted price in the DFS streets.
Buffalo has plenty of strengths, but they are the worst playoff team in getting off the field (43.8% opponent third-down conversion rate; NFL average: 39.7%) and struggle against the slot (fifth-highest completion percentage). Those weaknesses can elevate Nix’s floor, something that is very appealing given that we are aware of his ceiling potential via Courtland Sutton and/or his rushing ability.
I’m not clicking on Nix in a cash setting where half the field is paid out, but if you’re in a top-heavy payout contest, he’s a very lively option.
C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs. LAC)
If you want to be different, C.J. Stroud is the way to do it. The bird’s-eye profile checks the boxes — a QB who has succeeded at the NFL level with a top-10 receiver to throw to in a game where a passing game script is likely to occur.
That sounds good, but we just haven’t seen Stroud connect the dots this season, and the Chargers defense certainly isn’t a get-right type of spot. He threw 116 deep passes (15+ air yards) a season ago and 122 this season. The attempt count was similar, but the success rate was very different.
- 2023: Nine touchdowns and zero interceptions
- 2024: Five touchdowns and seven interceptions
These are two of the eight slowest-moving offenses in the NFL; if the Chargers take a lead, they’ve proven capable of bleeding the clock with the best of them. If you want a piece of Houston, I’d go with just one skill player instead of stacking up Stroud to gain leverage on the field.
Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. GB)
Jalen Hurts (and the coaching staff) is trusting his reads longer, a continued trend from the past few seasons. His quick pass rate in 2022 was 69.8% — it dipped to 61.7% in 2023 and finished this year at 57.3%. This is allowing his talented teammates to work downfield; against a Packers secondary with question marks, that fuels considerable upside.
Week 1 was forever ago, but we had a healthy version of this Eagles team. That seems to be the case here (assuming that Hurts is cleared of any concussion-related restrictions). In that win, Hurts was locked onto A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (62.1% of targets, 60% of completions, and 73% of pass yards).
- Over 30 rushing yards in four of five career playoff games
- Rushing TD or a dozen rush attempts in 13 of 14 healthy games this regular season
The rushing upside speaks for itself, and if he is going to rely heavily on his most talented teammates, Hurts has every chance to be the leading scoring player in this round. He won’t be a unique play, but with three other athletic quarterbacks on the slate, I don’t expect any singular QB to be too popular.
Jayden Daniels | WAS (at TB)
Jayden Daniels completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during his current five-game win streak, drastically improved from his 49.1% rate over his previous five games. After a midseason swoon likely caused by ailing ribs, the growth we are seeing is ultra-impressive for a player navigating his first professional season.
He relied heavily on his legs in his NFL debut against these Bucs (16 carries for 88 yards and two scores, one of which came in garbage time), but we have a much more comfortable and versatile Daniels these days. Tampa Bay owns the lowest interception rate among playoff teams (1.1%, 29th across the NFL), making Daniels my pick as most likely to hit the rare double-bonus (300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards) stat line.
Jordan Love | GB (at PHI)
All seems good health-wise for Jordan Love after the Week 18 scare, but I’m not interested in going in this direction.
First and foremost, I’m not sure the Packers have the ball often enough. The Eagles average nearly 32.5 minutes of possession per game, the highest rate in the league and a threat to be surpassed in this game should they get out to an early lead.
Philadelphia ranked seventh in pressure rate, an impressive mark for the team that blitzes at the second-lowest rate in the league. Everything seems to come together at the right time, the strength that has impacted my ranking of Love more than anything.
In Weeks 11-16, Love’s pressured passer rating was 107.2, a number that has plummeted to 53.6 in two consecutive losses to round out the regular season. Green Bay’s path to success is not fantasy-friendly for Love — that has me passing on this passing game.
Josh Allen | BUF (vs. DEN)
The presumptive MVP set the NFL record for games with multiple passing touchdowns and a rushing score (six), and we could see such a game this week after getting last week off to rest.
For his career, Allen is averaging 27.8 fantasy points per playoff game, clearing 30 points in half of those contests. If you think he plays a friendly style of game during the regular season, just wait until his season is on the line — 56.3 rushing yards per playoff game with multiple passing touchdowns in each of his past four.
Excluding the one-snap effort from Sunday, Allen has been held without multiple passing touchdowns OR a rushing touchdown just once since Week 5 (Week 16 vs. Patriots). There’s no reason to think that the Allen takeover season ends this week, even against a tough defense (Lamar Jackson completed 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards and three scores when the Broncos came to town).
Justin Herbert | LAC (at HOU)
Justin Herbert is the first Charger to complete two-thirds of his passes with 280 yards and multiple scores through the air in three straight games (before him, it had been in consecutive games nine times in franchise history). He’s peaking at the right time, and that’s why Los Angeles is a road favorite to kick off the postseason.
The Herbert/Jim Harbaugh tandem has found its stride, and I don’t see the Texans serving as a speed bump. Only Dallas allowed touchdowns at a higher rate when opponents got into goal-to-go situations this season than Houston, giving Herbert (multiple rushing TDs in four of five seasons) a little more upside than meets the eye.
Even if a cheap rushing score doesn’t occur, there’s a path to plenty of upside. The Giants and Panthers are two passing defenses that struggled, right? The Ravens and Commanders are playoff teams with similar flaws, right?
The Texans allow more yards per completion than all of them, making Herbert a threat to lead this slate in passing yards (I’ve bet him to go over 230.5 passing yards and under 0.5 interceptions in such a way that a split would break me even).
Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs. PIT)
I’m old enough to remember when there was talk about Lamar Jackson needing to change positions. He’s developed into a true dual threat where defenses have no real answer. This season, he has …
- 11 games with multiple TD passes and zero INTs
- 13 games with 40+ rushing yards
- Five games with a 25+ yard carry
The Steelers, in Week 16, bottled up Jackson and held him without a 10-yard run, the only such game for the reigning MVP this season (nine carries for 22 yards). Across two games with Pittsburgh, Jackson completed just 55.4% of his passes (all other games: 68.2%).
I’m not too worried about it.
Over the last two seasons under Todd Monken, Jackson has been a different QB:
- 2023-24: 66.9% completion rate, 8.4 yards per attempt, 7.0% TD rate, and 1.2% INT rate
- Previously in his career: 63.7% completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt, 6.1% TD rate, and 2.3% INT rate
I’m happy to bet on two years of data over two data points from this season. Jackson offers plenty of upside, and if his ownership numbers do not project to be within shouting distance of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels, I have no issue going in this direction.
Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs. MIN)
This game of ours can be so complicated. The smarter we get, the more intricate play-calling gets and a team’s willingness to think outside of the box can make them difficult to project.
Other times, it’s so simple. Matthew Stafford threw for 279 yards and four scores against the Vikings in Week 8, a production level that was made possible by following a single principle.
Give your best players a chance.
In that win, Stafford funneled 70.6% of his passes (68% of his completions) to Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, or Kyren Williams. We can caution against building a top-heavy roster like what Los Angeles has, but in a one-game setting, it can be effective. At this point, that’s all that matters.
While I like the potential of this offense when everything is going right, I worry about the trajectory.
Stafford has completed a career-low 46.5% of his red-zone passes, and I’m less confident now as I can ever remember in his ability to rack up fantasy points through sheer volume (he hasn’t thrown more than 32 passes in a victory since Week 9).
Of course, that math flips if you think the Vikings control this game, as Stafford is averaging 38.7 attempts per game in defeats. I like the idea of the stars on this team getting a week off entering this game, though it should be noted that Stafford has been held under 200 passing yards in his last three contests after an official bye.
I’ve got this essentially as a neutral matchup. While I think this is a competitive game, there are six quarterbacks I’d rather back at cost this week, and that leaves me with no real exposure to Stafford. If things go right for the Rams, I think Williams is getting fed and if the game script flips, a pocket-locked QB isn’t how I want to beat Brian Flores’ aggression.
Russell Wilson | PIT (at BAL)
Pittsburgh’s trajectory is very concerning, and when pairing that with the direction of Baltimore’s defense, this is a team I’m actively avoiding.
In Weeks 1-9, the Ravens ranked 24th in pressure rate when not blitzing. I love targeting defenses like that as they are forced into being aggressive, and those are the spots in which fantasy points can be racked up in a major way.
Since then, however, Baltimore has ranked fifth in that metric and is clearly peaking. That’s not a deal breaker for some offenses, but given where Pittsburgh’s mess is heading, I’m out.
Wilson’s production vs. pressure over the past two months:
- Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 12-14: 120.7 (would lead the NFL)
- Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 15-18: 43.9 (worse than Kirk Cousins)
And guess what? The pressured spots are the highlight while the veteran QB has seen his production fall off a cliff across the board:
Wilson has cleared a dozen rushing yards in five straight games, but he’s averaging just 18.2 completions per game over that run; he’s not the type that can average more rushing yards (25.6 per game during that month) than completions and pay off for fantasy managers.
For me, this is a risk you don’t need to take — there are different ways to be different with a clearer path to a ceiling performance.
Sam Darnold | MIN (at LAR)
Sam Darnold has a little wiggle to his game but is largely a pocket passer. However, he’s my top-ranked QB who isn’t a threat to break open the game with his legs.
Soppe’s Wild Card QB rankings:
- Josh Allen
- Lamar Jackson
- Jayden Daniels
- Jalen Hurts
- Sam Darnold
He completed 72% of his passes for 240 yards and a pair of scores in Week 8 against the Rams, a stat line that feels like a floor. He was efficient without the running game demanding much defensive attention (22 carries for 64 yards).
If Minnesota can force Los Angeles to respect the run at any level, Darnold becomes a good bet to hit the 300-yard bonus, which would help him make up for the lack of projectable rushing production. The Rams are the worst playoff team in terms of time of possession, another feather in Darnold’s cap as it paves the way for high-end volume that a player like Jackson might not get.
We get all sorts of readers here at PFN; some are fans of a good narrative. If that’s you:
In Week 7, Sam Darnold had as many touchdowns as interceptions in a loss where his team allowed 31 points to the Lions — he followed it up with his second-best passer rating of the season in Los Angeles against the Rams. He didn’t have any touchdowns or interceptions in Sunday’s 31-9 loss to the Lions, so …
The nice part about taking a passing-oriented quarterback is the stacking ability. Darnold isn’t posting a big week without one, if not two or three, of his pass catchers coming along for the ride. I don’t expect Darnold to be a chalky QB, and if you lock in two of his teammates with him, you instantly have a pretty unique nucleus.