The Los Angeles Rams will face the Minnesota Vikings on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Rams skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Are you looking for advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Matthew Stafford, QB
This game of ours can be so complicated. The smarter we get, the more intricate play-calling gets and a team’s willingness to think outside of the box can make them difficult to project.
Other times, it’s so simple. Matthew Stafford threw for 279 yards and four scores against the Vikings in Week 8, a production level that was made possible by following a single principle.
Give your best players a chance.
In that win, Stafford funneled 70.6% of his passes (68% of his completions) to Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, or Kyren Williams. We can caution against building a top-heavy roster like what Los Angeles has, but in a one-game setting, it can be effective. At this point, that’s all that matters.
While I like the potential of this offense when everything is going right, I worry about the trajectory.
Stafford has completed a career-low 46.5% of his red-zone passes, and I’m less confident now as I can ever remember in his ability to rack up fantasy points through sheer volume (he hasn’t thrown more than 32 passes in a victory since Week 9).
Of course, that math flips if you think the Vikings control this game, as Stafford is averaging 38.7 attempts per game in defeats. I like the idea of the stars on this team getting a week off entering this game, though it should be noted that Stafford has been held under 200 passing yards in his last three contests after an official bye.
I’ve got this essentially as a neutral matchup. While I think this is a competitive game, there are six quarterbacks I’d rather back at cost this week, and that leaves me with no real exposure to Stafford. If things go right for the Rams, I think Williams is getting fed and if the game script flips, a pocket-locked QB isn’t how I want to beat Brian Flores’ aggression.
Kyren Williams, RB
I’m not in love with Kyren Williams this week regarding efficiency or upside, but his raw volume is so overwhelming that he checks in as my RB4 and sits atop my second tier.
Let’s start with the good. Over this win streak, Williams is producing 11.2% above expectations. He’s a great player, but I’m encouraged because the offensive line is getting stronger at the perfect time (Williams is averaging 18.5% more yards per carry before contact over those games than he did previously).
Combine that with a role that ranks favorably for just about anyone (six missed games since last season and he still leads the league with 126 red-zone touches), and you could argue that Williams’ floor is the highest on the slate.
That’s great, but I don’t think the ceiling is there to help you ship some sort of big DFS tournament. In Week 8, it took him 23 carries to gain 97 yards against Brian Flores’ crew, consistent with what we’ve seen against good teams of late. Since that contest, he’s failed to gain yardage on 75% of his carries three times, and they all came against high-level competition.
- Week 8 vs. Vikings: 73.9%
- Week 12 vs. Eagles: 68.7%
- Week 14 vs. Bills: 72.4%
Minnesota is the fifth-best after-contact rush defense in the league; that can neutralize this offensive line’s growth. Williams is a fine play, but I don’t think his ceiling touches Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, or Bucky Irving’s this week.
Cooper Kupp, WR
There’s no two ways about it – the past three games for Cooper Kupp (Weeks 15-17) have been an abject disaster. He’s turned 67 routes into just four catches and 53 yards on nine targets, fueling thoughts that Father Time took some sort of turbo boost and tracked him down at hyper speed.
I’m not so sure. At least, not for this week. We can deal with the future as we get closer, but I’m not hesitating to call his number in DFS contests this week, especially if the ownership shakes out in our favor.
Minnesota is the most blitz-heavy defense in the NFL (38.6%) after pacing the league last season. In 2022, before Brian Flores took over this unit, they ranked 23rd – safe to say it’s not an accident. Both Puka Nacua and Kupp have been outstanding when Matthew Stafford is blitzed, but that’s the status quo for Nacua. For Kupp? This is the situation he needs to be in.
- Blitzed: 41.4% production over expectation, 2.4 points per target, 3.8 yards per route
- Not blitzed: 11% production below expectation, 1.5 points per target, 1.5 yards per route
If you want to venture into the betting markets, we can get even a little more creative. This general path is likely to land me on Kupp overs when yardage and reception lines post, but the touchdown numbers are up and have an early sprinkle from me (+150 anytime, +1000 first). Flores is aggressive the second he gets out of bed, but it’s amplified at the beginning of halves, a time when he has the chance to scheme up a rested unit and dictate the tempo.
- Blitz rate in the first and third quarters: 40.8%
- Blitz rate in the second and fourth quarters: 37.3%
Kupp earned eight targets and scored in the Week 8 meeting with Minnesota, and I could see a similar usage pattern this week. Let’s get on the board early and go from there!
Puka Nacua, WR
CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the only receivers with more yards and a higher catch rate than Puka Nacua over the past two seasons. He’s pretty clearly taken the league by storm and has essentially put to bed the idea that this is a split WR1 role – he’s the alpha in Los Angeles and everyone falls in line behind him.
He was ejected early in the first meeting with the Seahawks – all he has done since is post a 142.4-catch pace. We’ve seen the Rams ramp up their desire to get him the ball. Be it a recent surge in rushing attempts or an aDOT that is down 14.9% from his historic rookie season, they are making it their weekly mission to funnel opportunities his way. That’s all we as fantasy managers can realistically ask for.
The dip in the average depth of target is what has me most encouraged in this specific spot. We saw him haul in seven of nine targets for 106 yards against the blitz-happy Vikings back in Week 8. A similar level of success wouldn’t surprise me this week given how little time it takes for him to separate from coverage.
One of my takes from earlier is that I like this spot even more for Kupp and I stand by that. Nacua’s price tag on DraftKings is 18.8% higher. While I do believe he’s the clear No. 1, I still believe that Kupp can thrive in a spot like this. If you like the Rams to pull off the upset, go ahead and grab Nacua in your postseason formats, but in the scope of Wild Card weekend, I’m embracing the discount and rolling with Kupp.