When I first saw the Wild Card lineup of games for this weekend, I felt like a kid on Christmas morning. Huge matchups, rivalries, old vs. young, rookies vs. vets – we’ve got it all. However, what I did not expect was that, as the week went by, one game continued to stand out as a sneaky favorite to me, and it’s this one.
Yes – I am an absolute sucker for offense (overs > unders – am I right?), and this game boasts the highest expected point total according to Vegas, but I am also a huge fan of both QBs – and their character arcs.
Baker Mayfield represents everything we love about football. He’s an absolute gamer, a dog on the field who refuses to quit and has shown massive resilience as he rebuilt his career (and his legacy) in Tampa with the Bucs, who are now favorites in this playoff game.
On the flipside, we have rookie sensation, Jayden Daniels. This dude hasn’t been in the league long enough to even have a career arc yet, but he’s been turning heads since the moment he was drafted. His calm, cool, collected manner is almost the opposite as Mayfield’s, but his production on the field is just as strong.
If this matchup lives up to the hype, it will bring us points galore. Which players are we eyeing tonight in the clash between the Commanders and the Bucs?
Best Commanders vs. Buccaneers Player Props and Game Lines
Commanders at Buccaneers, Over 50.5 Total Points (-112)
In Week 1, the Bucs handed the Commanders their first loss of the season in a 37-20 drubbing in Tampa. Although we don’t expect the same lopsided result in this one (we’re still giving a slight edge to Tampa), we do expect a similar number of points. Daniels and the Commanders are coming into the playoffs riding a five-game win streak and are averaging close to 30 points per game in that span.
MORE: Updated NFL Playoff Bracket
Mayfield and the Bucs have shown zero fear of engaging in shootouts, however, and some might say this is their preferred style of play. I can say this with confidence – no one, and I mean no one wants to get in the trenches with Baker Mayfield. We like this game to be close, and we like both offenses to be able to move the ball against the opposing defense.
I’m firing up the over here, in what should be a shootout.
Baker Mayfield, 2+ Passing TDs
Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season. I have him pencilled in to extend that streak in this spot against a Washington defense that can be had, especially when they ramp up the aggression (24th in pressure rate when blitzing). Mayfield is one of the top QBs in the league against the blitz, and the Commanders are very soft over the middle in intermediate passing lanes.
I do trust this Commanders’ defense more now than I did back in Week 1 when Mayfield lit them up for 289 yards and four scores through the air, but they still check in below average. We expect the dual-threat abilities of Daniel to be a tough matchup for the Bucs’ defense, which should continually land the ball back in Mayfield’s hands, with a need to score points.
Jalen McMillan, Anytime TD (+160)
I compared Jalen McMillan to Amon-Ra St. Brown in this space last week, and he went out and lived up to expectations with the NFC South on the line (5-74-1 against the Saints). By no means am I victory-lapping – but the kid has been great for a month now, and in a smaller sample size, he’s been producing at an extremely consistent level.
Speaking of consistency, McMillan has scored one touchdown or more in each of his last five games (seven total in that span). In that same span, the least amount of catches he has had is four, and the least amount of receiving yards is 51.
Also, the Commanders have struggled to defend the middle of the field. Washington ranks 29th in yards per attempt allowed (8.8) and 26th in EPA per play (-0.36) on passes thrown between the numbers. Honestly, I like all of McMillan’s props today – but this is my favorite at plus money.
Bucky Irving, O114.5 Scrimmage Yards, (-115)
If you extend his last seven healthy games over a 17-game schedule, we are talking about a running back with 1,700 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 56 receptions, and 493 receiving yards. That’s a stat line that only Edgerrin James (2000) and LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) have ever achieved for a season.
Irving is taking the league by storm and is playing in the game with the highest total of the week. This season, the Commanders own the second-worst red-zone defense among teams still playing, struggles fueled by the lowest success rate against the run of this group.
Consider this: Washington allowed 49.6% more yards per RB carry before contact than the league average this season (only the Panthers were worse). His scrimmage yardage prop opened at 108.5 yards, and I’m not sure it’s nearly high enough. Let’s lock in the over on Irving tonight.
Terry McLaurin, O5.5 Receptions (+120)
Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes during the regular season, more than his previous two best seasons combined. He’s been nothing short of special. Among the 35 receivers with 100 targets this season, he led the way in production relative to expectation this season (+32.2%). This type of bankable volume in the game with the highest projected point total is exactly what we look for when it comes to player props.
If you can tease this down to 4.5, I like it even more (I LOVE teasing McLaurin + McMillan catches for a little McParlay…). McLaurin has been Daniels’ favorite target this season by a long margin, and he’s had more than five catches in three of his last five outings. In fact, he’s had 5+ catches in six of his last eight, and he now faces a Bucs defense that loves to bring pressure – which could leave McLaurin open, especially around the line of scrimmage.
Jayden Daniels, O50+ Rushing Yards (-130)
Through the first 10 weeks of the season, the Buccaneers struggled as one of the league’s worst pass defenses. However, since returning from their Week 11 bye, Tampa Bay has transformed into one of the NFL’s top statistical pass defenses.
This will open the door for Daniels to steal some yards on the ground, and no quarterback was a more effective scrambler during the regular season than Jayden Daniels. The Commanders’ rookie added 56.0 EPA on scrambles this season, the second-best in a season since 2000 (behind 2022 Justin Fields).
Daniels has gone over this number in three of his last four games, and with the overall points total where it is – we should be ready for a whole lot of offensive production.
Note: All lines are from DraftKings and are taken at the time the article was published. Odds are subject to change after the article is published.