The Houston Texans will face the Los Angeles Chargers on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Joe Mixon.
Is Joe Mixon Playing vs. the Chargers?
Mixon is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any unexpected setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Texans’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Joe Mixon on Wild Card Weekend?
The Texans are either managing Joe Mixon for this spot or are indirectly telling us something by not handing the ball to their starting running back more than 14 times in four straight games (and five of six).
Without high-end value, Mixon isn’t likely worth your precious DFS dollar (4.1 yards per carry this season without a carry gaining more than 10 yards in five of his past eight games). He’s not a zero in the passing game, but his catch rate is at a career low and his usage hasn’t changed following Tank Dell’s injury.
The Chargers allow a touchdown on a league-low 45% of red-zone trips this season (NFL average: 57.6%; playoff team average: 54.2%), which impacts their league-leading RB rushing score rate (1.2% of attempts).
If you think Mixon can get to the 84 carries that it takes to project a full rushing score against Los Angeles, yes, go ahead and lock him into lineups. Call me crazy, but I don’t see a rebound to the elite volume we were getting earlier in the season (there were 21.5 carry over/unders available in November), and I’m not sold that the quality of touches in this spot is especially high.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Joe Mixon’s Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
As of Saturday, Mixon is projected to score 15.7 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 15.1 rushing attempts for 64.4 yards and 0.6 touchdowns. It also includes 2.7 receptions for 20.1 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Chiefs' Defense
The Chiefs were a top-10 defense entering Week 18 but saw their ranking tank after the junior varsity team flopped against the Broncos.
Ignoring Week 18, Kansas City would have ranked eighth in EPA per rush and 11th in EPA per dropback. While not quite the dominant level of last year's unit, that well-rounded top-10-level performance is more than enough to support an ascending offense.
The most encouraging sign for this unit was its improving pass rush. From Weeks 12-17, Kansas City had the fourth-highest non-blitz pressure rate (36.2%), a big leap after ranking 16th in that category (31.6%) from Weeks 1-10.
That's especially frightening to consider when you remember that Steve Spagnuolo's designer pressures are what this unit typically feasts on. Kansas City ended up blitzing at the ninth-highest rate this season (30.8%) and posted the seventh-best EPA per play while doing so.
After some shaky weeks and midseason questions, the Chiefs appear to be peaking as the postseason arrives, setting aside the de facto exhibition in Week 18. That's a familiar story from last season and could result in a familiar ending in February as well.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Joe Mixon’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. LAR)
2) Derrick Henry | BAL (at BUF)
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs. WAS)
4) Kyren Williams | LAR (at PHI)
5) James Cook | BUF (vs. BAL)
6) Joe Mixon | HOU (at KC)
7) David Montgomery | DET (vs. WAS)
8) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at DET)
9) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at DET)
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. HOU)
11) Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. HOU)
12) Justice Hill | BAL (at BUF)
13) Ty Johnson | BUF (vs. BAL)
14) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. LAR)
15) Samaje Perine | KC (vs. HOU)
16) Craig Reynolds | DET (vs. WAS)
17) Dare Ogunbowale | HOU (at KC)
18) Ronnie Rivers | LAR (at PHI)
19) Keaton Mitchell | BAL (at BUF)
20) Dameon Pierce | HOU (at KC)
21) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at DET)
22) Patrick Ricard | BAL (at BUF)
23) Carson Steele | KC (vs. HOU)
24) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (vs. BAL)
25) Sione Vaki | DET (vs. WAS)
Texans at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans have yet to win more than three games in a row during the C.J. Stroud era. They’ll need to extend their win streak to four games to reach the Super Bowl.
QB: Stroud had a 27-yard rush against the Chargers – prior to that, he didn’t have 27 rushing yards in a game since Halloween.
Offense: The Texans bet heavily on Stroud early, part of a theme during the second half of their season:
Texans: Highest First-Half Dropback Rates in 2024
- Saturday vs. Chargers: 78.8%
- Week 16 at Chiefs: 77.1%
- Week 12 vs. Titans: 73.9%
- Week 15 vs. Dolphins: 73.9%
- Week 17 vs. Ravens: 71%
Defense: Houston posted its second-best Defense+ grade in our database (since 2019), 88.7, which was 5.6 points better than its best showing during the regular season.
Fantasy: Joe Mixon has recorded multiple red zone touches in 13 straight games.
Betting: The Texans opened the season 0-4 ATS – they are 8-5-1 since, with covers against the Bill and Lions as a part of that.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Kansas City had a first-round bye on its way to a title in 2022, and there were no signs of rust—they scored in each of their first three possessions and allowed just 5.1 yards per play in the first half of the divisional round.
QB: Patrick Mahomes posted an 84.8 grade in our QB+ metric this season, 10th best in the NFL (below his career norm, but ahead of his 81.5 from a season ago).
Offense: Kansas City settled for a field goal on just 13.4% of its drives in 2022—their rate was 18.4% in 2023 and 18.9% this year.
Defense: In Weeks 15-17, understanding that this team rested most of their playmakers in Week 18, the Chiefs allowed a touchdown on just two of seven opponent red zone drives.
Fantasy: DeAndre Hopkins has topped out at a 63.1% snap share with Kansas City and now has to navigate a healthy Hollywood Brown, who has been targeted on 44.1% of his routes in two games back.
Betting: The Chiefs had a losing ATS record in the 2022 season before going on to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs had a negative average cover margin in 2023 before going on to win the Super Bowl. They did both of those things this past regular season.
