The Los Angeles Chargers will face the Houston Texans on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Justin Herbert.
Is Justin Herbert Playing vs. the Texans?
Herbert is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Chargers’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Justin Herbert on Wild Card Weekend?
Herbert is the first Charger to complete two-thirds of his passes with 280 yards and multiple scores through the air in three straight games (before him, it had been in consecutive games nine times in franchise history). He’s peaking at the right time, and that’s why Los Angeles is a road favorite to kick off the postseason.
The Herbert/Jim Harbaugh tandem has found its stride, and I don’t see the Texans serving as a speed bump. Only Dallas allowed touchdowns at a higher rate when opponents got into goal-to-go situations this season than Houston, giving Herbert (multiple rushing TDs in four of five seasons) a little more upside than meets the eye.
Even if a cheap rushing score doesn’t occur, there’s a path to plenty of upside. The Giants and Panthers are two passing defenses that struggled, right? The Ravens and Commanders are playoff teams with similar flaws, right?
The Texans allow more yards per completion than all of them, making Herbert a threat to lead this slate in passing yards (I’ve bet him to go over 230.5 passing yards and under 0.5 interceptions in such a way that a split would break me even).
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Justin Herbert’s Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
As of Saturday, Herbert is projected to score 18 fantasy points on Wild Card Weekend. This includes 254.1 passing yards, 1.6 passing touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions. It also includes 3.5 rushing attempts for 13.5 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Texans' Defense
The Texans' defense has become the team's backbone this season, but the unit had faltered in back-to-back losses against the Baltimore Ravens and Chiefs.
In that respect, finishing the season against the Tennessee Titans served as a nice dose of mouthwash ahead of the playoffs. Houston ends the season as a top-10 unit thanks to one of the best pass rushes in the NFL.
Led by the tandem of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, the Texans ended with the fourth-highest sack rate and second-best pass success rate of any defense this year. Houston wasn't shabby on the ground either, ranking eighth in success rate and fifth in EPA per play against the run.
Houston has the lowest Offense+ grade of any team in the playoff field, putting the burden on this unit to carry the team to a win against any meaningful competition. The Texans' playoff ceiling is certainly capped as a result, but this unit is capable of stealing one game at home.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Justin Herbert’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 12. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (vs. DEN)
2) Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs. PIT)
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. GB)
4) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at TB)
5) Baker Mayfield | TB (vs. WAS)
6) Sam Darnold | MIN (at LAR)
7) Bo Nix | DEN (at BUF)
8) Justin Herbert | LAC (at HOU)
9) Jordan Love | GB (at PHI)
10) Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs. MIN)
11) Russell Wilson | PIT (at BAL)
12) C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs. LAC)
13) Justin Fields | PIT (at BAL)
14) Kenny Pickett | PHI (vs. GB)
15) Jimmy Garoppolo | LAR (vs. MIN)
16) Kyle Trask | TB (vs. WAS)
17) Devin Leary | BAL (vs. PIT)
18) Nick Mullens | MIN (at LAR)
19) Mitchell Trubisky | BUF (vs. DEN)
20) Marcus Mariota | WAS (at TB)
21) Jarrett Stidham | DEN (at BUF)
22) Easton Stick | LAC (at HOU)
23) Davis Mills | HOU (vs. LAC)
24) Malik Willis | GB (at PHI)
Chargers at Texans Trends and Insights
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: The +101 point differential posted by the Chargers this season is their best since outscoring the opposition by 119 points in 2010.
QB: Justin Herbert is the first Chargers player to complete two-thirds of his passes with 280 yards and multiple scores through the air in three straight games (prior to him, it had been in consecutive games nine times in franchise history).
Offense: Los Angeles has averaged over 3.0 points per drive three times this season … Weeks 16-17-18.
Defense: Opponents have converted just nine of 32 third downs over the past three weeks (28.1%).
Fantasy: Ladd McConkey finishes his rookie season with three straight games north of 85 receiving yards. His six such games match the franchise record for a rookie (2013 Keenan Allen).
Betting: The Texans finished the regular season 3-5 ATS at home, with unders going 6-1-1.
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans are 1-6 in their last seven games with C.J. Stroud under center against a winning team and have been outscored 196-106 in those contests.
QB: C.J. Stroud threw 116 deep passes (15+ air yards) last season and 122 this season. The attempt count was similar, but the success rate was very different.
- 2023: 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions
- 2024: 5 touchdowns and 7 interceptions
Offense: Houston averages 1.81 points per drive this season. When they reach that number, they are 7-2 (3-5 otherwise).
Defense: The Texans are 9-1 this season when stopping the opposition on over 60% of their third down opportunities (1-6 otherwise).
Fantasy: Nico Collins has appeared in eight Texan victories this season, and in those games, he’s produced 41.7% over PPR expectations.
Betting: Unders are 4-1 in Houston’s past five games.