Are you not entertained? Jim Harbaugh, aka the “Bringer of Culture,” has turned the entire Los Angeles Chargers organization around in just one season. One season after the Bolts finished at 5-12 (last in the AFC West), they are now playoff-bound and favored on the road against the Houston Texans.
Despite some slight regression from quarterback C.J. Stroud in a “sophomore slump,” the Texans still won the AFC South title. With wide receiver Nico Collins and running back Joe Mixon, Houston is still an intimidating matchup, and this game is shaping up to be a slugfest. What are our favorite game lines and player props for this Wild Card showdown?
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans Player Props and Game Lines
Note: All lines are from DraftKings, and are taken at the time the article was published. Odds are subject to change after the article is published.
Remember, for lines above -150, we generally don’t take these straight up (odds are too high), but we like to mix these into two or three-leg parlays. Also, in the same light, it’s worth noting that if you like several of these lines, it could be worth teasing them down a bit before combining them if you’re building a parlay.
Chargers -2.5 (-120)
The Chargers by 2.5 is one of our favorite lines, especially if we don’t have to tease it.
If the Texans were healthy, this might be a different story — but unfortunately for Houston fans, they’re not.
In their last three games, the Chargers have scored over 34 points in each game, and QB Justin Herbert has thrown 2+ TD passes in each of them.
In short? The Chargers are rolling at the right time.
On the flip side, the Texans have only scored 41 points total in that same span. When you consider recent history and overall health, there’s a reason Los Angeles is favored, even as the lower seed.
Under 42.5 Total Points (-112)
Yes, the Chargers have been putting up points over the last three games, but they’ve all been against very lackluster defenses. Although the Texans are dealing with more injuries than they’d like, their defense is still legit.
Our metrics point to a battle in the trenches between these two teams, as both defenses rank in the top 10 in PFN’s Defense+ rankings. Both defenses have prolific pass rushes and are generally solid at preventing big plays.
If this game is as tight as we think it will be, we like an overall point total below 42.5 combined points.
J.K. Dobbins | Anytime TD (+120)
After injuring his knee, J.K. Dobbins has returned with a vengeance. Even better? The Chargers immediately put him back in a featured role.
Los Angeles has shown us over the past two weeks its willingness to feature Dobbins, and that promise in the projected game script puts him on our radar.
Dobbins is one of four running backs to enter the playoffs with at least 18 carries and a catch in both of his last two games (among Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bucky Irving). With nine touchdowns in 13 games this season, we love Dobbins to get multiple opportunities near the goal line to punch one in.
At plus money, we’re taking those odds.
Nico Collins | Longest Reception, Over 27.5 YDS (-110)
Simply put, Collins is automatic. He’s one of the closest players that we see on a weekly basis who is uncoverable. And even though the Chargers’ defense boasts a vaunted pass rush, Collins is by far the most dynamic player on the Texans’ roster.
We like a few different props for Collins this week, but he’s hit this number in nine of 13 games this season, and without Tank Dell or Stefon Diggs, he’ll see no shortage of deep targets. All it takes is one.
Ladd McConkey | Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Ladd McConkey finished his rookie regular season with three straight games north of 85 receiving yards. His six such games match the franchise record for a rookie (2013 Keenan Allen), and this very much feels like only the beginning for a receiver who already is showing the type of route-running chops of a player five years his senior.
What we like most about Los Angeles’ WR1 is how his value doesn’t hinge on the game script. Obviously, McConkey’s volume could take off should the Chargers fall behind, but with a 73.2% catch rate this season, he’s a safety valve who can be used to help ice the game as well.
McConkey has passed this mark in five of his last six games, and at -110, we want to take a shot at that consistency.
P.S. — Hold your nose on this one, but we’re attaching a bit of a freebie here. There’s no Joshua Palmer this week for LA… but there is a Quentin Johnston.
No, it’s not sexy, but in Weeks 15-18, Johnston has been targeted on 29.5% of his routes, up from 19.7% in Weeks 1-14. Over 3.5 receptions (-150) seems like a lock and could be a great addition to a parlay.