It’s been several years since Mike Tomlin has led the Pittsburgh Steelers on a deep playoff run, but it’s been longer since quarterback Russell Wilson played in a conference championship game.
Russell Wilson Experienced Early Postseason Success With Seahawks
Wilson was behind center for back-to-back Super Bowl appearances for the Seattle Seahawks after the 2013 and 2014 campaigns. The Seahawks won one of those Super Bowls, but he hasn’t won two playoff games in the same season since January 2015.
Overall, Wilson owns a 9-7 postseason record in his career. But he’s 3-6 in the playoffs since his last conference championship victory.
In the early 2010s, the Seahawks assembled one of the best modern-day defenses with their “Legion of Boom” secondary. In October 2010, Seattle also acquired running back Marshawn Lynch, who made his second Pro Bowl during his first full season in Seattle.
Quarterback was the final missing piece. Wilson began filling that void after the Seahawks drafted him in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft.
Wilson led the Seahawks to a playoff appearance and won a postseason game as a rookie. He then became just the fifth quarterback in NFL history to start in the Super Bowl during his second season.
Behind a historic defensive performance, Wilson bested Peyton Manning in Super Bowl 48, with the Seahawks defeating the Denver Broncos 43-8.
Wilson continued his hot start the following January. He threw three touchdowns in the 2015 Divisional Round against the Carolina Panthers. Then, despite tossing four interceptions in the NFC Championship Game, Seattle managed to beat the Green Bay Packers to return to the Super Bowl after recovering an onside kick late in the fourth quarter and then winning in overtime.
Entering Super Bowl 49, Wilson owned a 6-1 postseason record.
Wilson’s Interception Cost Seattle Back-to-Back Super Bowls
Wilson and the Seahawks were in position for another improbable playoff victory against the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. However, Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler intercepted Wilson’s pass at New England’s 1-yard line with 26 seconds remaining in regulation.
New England held on to win 28-24.
Since then, Wilson hasn’t been close enough to winning another Super Bowl. The following season, he led the Seahawks back to the Divisional Round, but they fell to the No. 1-seeded Panthers.
In January 2017, Wilson and Seattle won in the Wild Card but lost to the eventual NFC champions (Atlanta Falcons) in the Divisional Round.
Since then, Wilson has won only one playoff game. In his last postseason appearance in January 2021, he completed only 11 of 27 passes for 174 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against the Los Angeles Rams. Wilson also took five sacks in a 30-20 loss.
Wilson, Mike Tomlin Aiming for Better Playoff Performances in 2025
Similar to Wilson, Tomlin experienced early playoff success as head coach of the Steelers, holding a 5-1 postseason record entering the 2011 Super Bowl. But since that game (loss to the Packers), Tomlin has gone just 3-9 in the postseason and hasn’t won a playoff game since January 2017.
Tomlin and Wilson will be looking to end their playoff misery together, but they appear to face long odds. PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives the Steelers less than a 35% chance of beating the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Wild Card matchup on Jan. 11.
Looking at PFN’s QB+ metric, Wilson currently ranks 17th overall on the year. He has really struggled these last four weeks specifically, ranking 29th and slipping below Justin Fields in QB+. That has coincided with a run that has seen them play three playoff teams and a good Browns defense.
The struggles against playoff defenses are a major concern heading into the postseason, but the struggles against the Bengals’ defense in Week 18 might be even more concerning.
Cincinnati has been one of the worst defenses in the NFL, yet Wilson could only manage a -0.07 EPA/DB and 3.8 nYPA against them. Sure, the offensive line isn’t great and his receivers are in the bottom half (if not the bottom five), but that only further makes a case for needing an X-factor like Fields, who can open things up with his legs.
It will be interesting to see what Wilson is able to do against the Ravens and if he turns back into the QB we saw earlier in the season.