The Pittsburgh Steelers were in control of the AFC North for much of the season, even threatening a potential first-round bye after a 10-3 start.
However, four straight losses to end the regular season knocked the Steelers out of the division crown and onto the road for the Wild Card Round. While Pittsburgh’s only concern at the moment is a rubber match against the Baltimore Ravens, who could the Steelers face if they advance?
What Are the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Scenarios?
As the No. 6 seed, there are three potential opponents for the Steelers in the Divisional Round. The two teams they cannot face in the Divisional Round are the seventh-seeded Denver Broncos and the second-seeded Buffalo Bills (and the Ravens obviously).
The Steelers and Broncos can’t meet before the AFC Championship Game as the two lowest-seeded teams. And if the Broncos are knocked out, the Bills cannot host the Steelers since Pittsburgh would be the lowest-seeded team left and thus forced to play the Kansas City Chiefs.
All scenarios and probabilities outlined below are under the assumption that the Steelers have beaten the Ravens. If you want to calculate the likelihood of each scenario happening, PFN projects Pittsburgh with a 28.5% chance of winning in Baltimore.
Additionally, for all scenarios outlined in this article, the key point to remember is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. The lowest remaining seed visits the highest remaining seed, unlike the majority of playoff formats (such as the College Football Playoff) where subsequent matchups are fixed based on the pre-existing bracket.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, Pittsburgh’s most likely opponent is Kansas City. With No. 2 seed Buffalo favored to beat Denver at home (63.2%), the Steelers would be the lowest remaining seed with a win and visit Arrowhead Stadium.
With a win, there would be a 63.2% chance that Pittsburgh would play its Divisional Round game in Kansas City. The next most likely outcome based on our win probabilities is a 20.7% chance of playing at the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Chargers, then a 16.1% chance of visiting the Houston Texans.
As outlined above, the Steelers would face the top-seeded Chiefs if the Bills hold serve at home against the Broncos. At that point, the Chargers-Texans game would be irrelevant to Pittsburgh’s Divisional Round destination.
If the Steelers AND Broncos both pull off road upsets, then Pittsburgh would face whoever wins the Chargers-Texans matchup. That’s due to Denver being a lower seed than Pittsburgh, which means the Broncos would draw the two-time defending champion Chiefs.
In any scenario outlined above, the Steelers will be headed on the road to play the Chiefs, Texans, or Chargers.
Pittsburgh hosted both the Chiefs and Chargers earlier this season. The Steelers defeated Los Angeles 20-10 back in Week 3 with Justin Fields starting at quarterback. More recently, Pittsburgh suffered a 29-10 defeat on Christmas Day to Kansas City, relinquishing control of the AFC North to Baltimore.
Could the Steelers Host the AFC Championship Game?
Yes, Pittsburgh can host the conference championship game, but it will take a series of upsets for that to occur. The only team seeded lower than the Steelers are the Broncos. That means the following results would have to all occur for the AFC Championship Game to be at Acrisure Stadium:
- No. 6 Steelers defeat No. 3 Ravens
- No. 7 Broncos defeat No. 2 Bills
- No. 6 Steelers defeat either No. 5 Chargers or No. 4 Texans
- No. 7 Broncos defeat No. 1 Chiefs
That’s four games in which the lower-seeded road team would need to win. In the brief history of the 14-team playoff format (since 2020), no No. 6 seed has hosted a playoff game. The only No. 6 seed to win multiple games was the 2021 San Francisco 49ers, who beat the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers before falling to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game.