The Baltimore Ravens have experienced a roller-coaster 2024 season but finished the regular season on the upswing with a four-game win streak following their Week 14 bye. That enabled John Harbaugh’s squad to snatch the AFC North from the Pittsburgh Steelers, who they’ll host on Wild Card Weekend.
Nothing is guaranteed in a Ravens-Steelers game, though Baltimore is a heavy favorite to advance. If they take care of business, who are the Ravens’ likeliest opponents to see in the Divisional Round?
What Are the Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Scenarios?
As the No. 3 seed, there are three potential opponents for the Steelers in the Divisional Round. The two teams they cannot face in the Divisional Round are the seventh-seeded Denver Broncos and the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (and the Steelers obviously).
For all scenarios outlined in this article, the key point to remember is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. The lowest remaining seed visits the highest remaining seed, unlike the majority of playoff formats (such as the College Football Playoff) where subsequent matchups are fixed based on the pre-existing bracket.
Therefore, the Ravens can’t host the Broncos next round because Baltimore can’t be the highest-seeded team standing after the Wild Card round. They also won’t see the Chiefs yet because the Ravens can’t be the lowest-seeded team remaining either.
All scenarios and probabilities outlined below are under the assumption that the Ravens have beaten the Steelers. If you want to calculate the likelihood of each scenario happening, PFN projects Baltimore with a 71.5% chance of defeating Pittsburgh.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Ravens’ most likely opponent are the Buffalo Bills. With the No. 2 seed favored to beat the Broncos at home (63.2%), the Ravens and Bills would be the two middle seeds remaining and face off in the Divisional Round.
With a win, there would be a 63.2% chance that the Ravens play their Divisional Round game in Buffalo. The next most likely outcome based on our win probabilities is a 20.7% chance of hosting the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Chargers, then a 16.1% chance of hosting the No. 4 seed Houston Texans.
As outlined above, the Ravens would face the second-seeded Bills if Buffalo wins at home against Denver. At that point, the Chargers-Texans game would be irrelevant to Baltimore’s Divisional Round destination.
If the Broncos pull off the road upset, Baltimore would face whoever wins the Chargers-Texans matchup. That’s due to Denver being the lowest-seeded team in the AFC field, which means the Broncos would automatically draw the two-time defending champion Chiefs.
A Broncos win would result in the Ravens hosting a Divisional Round game instead of headed on the road.
The Ravens played all three of their potential Divisional Round opponents and demolished all of them. Baltimore went 3-0 against the Bills, Chargers, and Texans during the regular season, winning by a combined score of 106-43 (+63). In the case of the Bills and Broncos, their respective defeats to the Ravens were their largest losses of the regular season.
Could the Ravens Host the AFC Championship Game?
Yes, but it will require both the Bills and Chiefs losing before AFC Championship Game, since Buffalo and Kansas City are seeded higher than Baltimore.
In the case of the Bills, the Ravens could potentially take care of that themselves. Baltimore and Buffalo appear headed on a collision course in a matchup of the top two MVP candidates in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. The two also met in the 2020 Divisional Round in Buffalo, with the Bills prevailing 17-3 after Jackson left the game in the third quarter with a concussion.
However, the Ravens would still be dependent on a lower seed upsetting the two-time defending Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs can face the Texans, Chargers, Steelers, or Broncos in the Divisional Round (though Baltimore would obviously be eliminated if Pittsburgh advances). In every scenario, Kansas City will be a significant home favorite.
The only teams seeded third or lower to host a Conference Championship since 2000 are the 2021 Los Angeles Rams (No. 4 seed), 2008 Arizona Cardinals (No. 4 seed), and 2006 Indianapolis Colts (No. 3 seed). All three of those teams won to advance to the Super Bowl.