The Baltimore Ravens are clicking at just the right time. The offense is humming, and the defense has finally found its identity. Lamar Jackson gets another shot at redemption in the playoffs, where he has struggled. For what it’s worth, Peyton Manning didn’t win his first playoff game until his sixth season, and his first Super Bowl win wasn’t until his ninth season. Jackson has time.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have walked backward into this playoff. Russell Wilson and the offense haven’t been playing very well, and their defense can only do so much when they are constantly on the field. Nevertheless, Mike Tomlin has coached this team to yet another playoff appearance and yet another .500-or-better season.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Ravens -9.5 - Moneyline
Ravens (-485); Steelers (+370) - Over/Under
43.5 total points - Game Time
8:00 p.m ET - Location
M&T Bank Stadium
Steelers vs. Ravens Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Ravens have the No. 1-ranked offense in EPA (expected points added) and the No. 2 offense in success rate. One of the more impressive things about this offense is its ability to create positive plays. They have the fourth-fewest amount of EPA lost to turnovers, and the third-fewest amount of EPA lost to sacks.
Baltimore’s offense has the longest throw time at 3.24 seconds, yet the Ravens have allowed a sack rate of 4.8% (fourth-lowest). Jackson’s escapability and pocket navigation skills are among the key traits that make him such a special talent. Among other stats, this is one of the key reasons Jackson dominates PFN’s QB+ metric, with his 2024 season ranking first among all seasons since 2019.
The offensive line adds to this, ranking second in quick pressure rate allowed and seventh in PFF’s pass-blocking grade. The development of this group will be key in the colder games, where you need to dominate the trenches the most. Derrick Henry has enjoyed his time as a Raven from a run-blocking standpoint as well.
The Ravens are first in the league in yards per rush before contact at 2.41 yards. A lot of this comes from the fact that they have Jackson, which puts added stress on the defense. In fact, there is a strong positive correlation (0.35) between yards per rush before contact and yards per rush on designed quarterback runs.
Of the top 10 teams since 2020 in yards per rush before contact, all of them but the Kansas City Chiefs in 2021 were also top 11 in yards per rush on designed quarterback runs. In Henry’s career, none of his Tennessee Titans seasons even sniffed two yards. On top of that, Henry averaged 58.5% of runs against a stacked box, with two seasons over 70%. With the Ravens this season, he only ran against a stacked box 48.9% of the time.
On top of the limited negative plays and excellent line play, they also create explosive plays better than anyone. They rank fifth in passes of 20 or more yards and first in rushes of 10 or more yards. The Steelers’ defense matches that skill, ranking eighth and sixth in allowing said plays.
Offensively, the Steelers rank 24th in EPA per play and 26th in success rate, second-last only to the Houston Texans in terms of playoff teams. The offense also does well with explosive plays, ranking 10th in passing explosive play rate and eighth in rushing.
This will be a huge advantage in the passing game but not the rushing game. Baltimore ranks 27th in passes of 20 or more yards given up but first in rushes of 10 or more yards given up.
Overall, Baltimore’s defense has seen huge improvements since the beginning of the season. They rank first in my defensive improvement index, which tracks a team’s defensive EPA over the season to determine which teams are peaking at the right time and which are getting worse. Pittsburgh’s defense is second-worst behind only the Titans.
Arguably just as frustrating is the fact that Pittsburgh also ranks third-worst in the offensive version. No matter which way you put it, Pittsburgh has seen a steep decline in play over the course of the season. I just don’t see a way in which Pittsburgh wins this game without forcing a ton of turnovers and another Baltimore disaster class on special teams.
My pick: Ravens -9.5