The Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With 18 weeks of data, could this week be our most profitable yet? We’ve got some interesting sides, totals, and props to consider before settling in for what promises to be another exciting day across the NFL.
Wild Card NFL Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Wild Card picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down for each game.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
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- Chargers -2.5
- Saquon Barkley longest run over 20.5 yards
- Buccaneers to score on their first drive
- Vikings/Rams under 47.5
- Vikings/Rams, neither team to score 30 points
David Bearman’s Picks
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- Steelers-Ravens under 43.5
- Broncos +8.5
- Rams ML (-102)
Jason Katz’s Picks
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- Najee Harris under 55.5 rush + receiving yards
- Jayden Daniels over 45.5 rushing yards
- Bo Nix 25+ rushing yards
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Soppe: Did you know that the Los Angeles Chargers (11 wins this season) were the only playoff team that didn’t have a victory by a field goal or less during the regular season? In fact, they were one of only four teams to do that this year, and the other three combined to win 11 games.
Winning by margin, entering this season, has been an issue during Justin Herbert’s time in Los Angeles, but that simply hasn’t been the case this season. Furthering that narrative is the fact that the Houston Texans rank 26th in second-half point differential this season (-62).
They’ve outscored their opponent in the second half on just three occasions this season, and one of those was only the result of a missed Jason Sanders (96.6% career PAT make rate) point after touchdown.
Even if you want to ignore those trends, the road team lines up to be the right play. Los Angeles is a perfect 5-0 this season against teams that rank bottom 12 in Cover-2 coverage rate, something Houston ranks 26th in.
If we’re being honest, I like all of those notes. But this is a simplistic spot for me — the Chargers own the third-best red-zone defense, a category in which the Texans rank 30th. Turning those trips into six points is so important, and given Los Angeles’ ability to buckle down, I feel good about backing the more talented team.
This season, Houston is 4-0 when scoring a touchdown on the majority of its red-zone trips and 6-7 otherwise (-34 point differential). LA is averaging 28.2 points per game in its wins this season, and if they end up anywhere near that number, I think we are cruising to a cover in the first playoff game of the season.
Pick: Chargers -2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Bearman: This is the third matchup of these two teams this season, and we’ve been on the under both times. The first matchup (under 48.5) won easily, as expected, finishing 18-16. That was the eighth consecutive Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup that failed to even reach 40 total points.
The last matchup, in Week 16 (under 42.5), bucked the trend and finished at 51. We’re not concerned. The previous eight meetings not only didn’t hit 40, but they hit the under by at least five points and, on average, by 8.9 points per game.
The Ravens, while having one of the top offenses in football, don’t always display that in the postseason. In Baltimore’s last seven postseason games, one of them reached 44, with the other seven all under 40.
As for the Steelers, their offense has hit critical mass and is a major reason for their four-game losing skid to finish the regular season. Pittsburgh has scored no more than 17 in each of those games, and in the last two, the combined scores were 36 and 39.
It’ll be another classic Ravens-Steelers AFC North game, which I don’t see coming to the mid-40s.
Pick: Under 43.5
Katz: We’re going back to the well on old reliable — fading Najee Harris.
The last time these teams played, Harris carried the ball nine times for 42 yards, and he didn’t catch a pass. Prior to Week 18 against the Cincinnati Bengals, Harris had a total of three receptions over his previous four games. He’s also failed to reach a 50% snap share in five straight contests.
The Ravens allow the fewest rushing yards per game, and Jaylen Warren should be handling nearly all of the receiving work. With the Steelers 10-point underdogs, the expectation is they will be trailing and, thus, throwing, leaving minimal opportunity for Harris to rack up yards on the ground via raw volume.
Pick: Najee Harris under 55.5 rush + receiving yards
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Bearman: Even taking out the blowout win over the Kansas City Chiefs taxi squad in Week 18, the Denver Broncos do pose a threat in the AFC playoffs. They are a solid, well-coached team that knows what it has in rookie Bo Nix on offense and a defense that ranks second in the NFL in yards per play allowed and No. 1 overall in PFN’s Defensive+ rankings.
While I do expect the Buffalo Bills to win and challenge the Ravens and Chiefs for the AFC’s Super Bowl spot, this one could be closer than people think. Of Denver’s seven losses this season, six have been by one possession, which would fall right into the 8.5-point window.
Are they live? Maybe. But I do love the 8.5 in a tight one-possession game.
Pick: Broncos +8.5
Katz: I have a theory regarding rushing quarterbacks that will be put to the test. Now that the NFL is populated with more and more mobile QBs, the opportunity for big-time rushing numbers is more prevalent.
Nix is not a run-first quarterback, but he is a tactical scrambler. He’s run for 25+ yards in nine games this season. Most notably, though, Nix posted rushing totals of 23, 25, 31, and 47 yards, respectively.
NFL head coaches want to protect their quarterbacks, but now that we’re in the postseason, it’s time to go all out. As a result, I expect the mobile QBs to be more willing to take off and fight for those extra yards.
With the Bills heavy favorites, the Broncos should be throwing much more than they’d like. That means more dropbacks for Nix and more opportunities to scramble.
Pick: Bo Nix 25+ rushing yards
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Soppe: We get the best back in the game well rested and in a positive game script. Generally speaking, I don’t love taking “over” bets for star players, but I’m making an exception for Saquon Barkley in this spot.
2024 RB Rushing Numbers
- Philadelphia Eagles: 42.8% of yards came before contact (most)
- Green Bay Packers: 76.7% of opponent yards came after contact (fifth-most)
Green Bay’s rate is the worst among playoff teams, and they coughed up 3.14 yards to Chicago Bears RBs before contact in Week 18, the Packers’ worst mark of the season.
The Packers’ blitz rate increases by slightly more than league average when playing from behind, and if they are in a position where they have to stack the box, Barkley could cash this bet late if he hasn’t already.
Barkley is averaging 21.6 carries per game, and with Jalen Hurts out of commission for a bit, I’m expecting him to get at least that many chances on the ground. If we’re going to think outside of the box, what is to stop Philadelphia from designing a quick “pass” or two to protect Hurts in the early going that goes Barkley’s direction and is technically backward?
That’s a rush attempt and could get him in space with blockers out in front. This is a long prop, but I like where we stand as long as the home team dictates tempo.
Pick: Saquon Barkley longest run over 20.5 yards
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Katz: Using the same process as I did for Nix, I also expect to see Jayden Daniels running more. In fact, this line seems a bit low, given what we’ve seen from him over the past few weeks.
Daniels only played half the game in Week 18 and still ran for 27 yards against the Dallas Cowboys. In his previous five contests, Daniels had rushing totals of 127, 81, 66, 34, and 74. When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washinton Commanders met back in Week 1, Daniels ran it 16 times for 88 yards.
This is obviously a win-or-go-home situation. Daniels is going to do everything he can to help Washington win, and I expect that to result in an increase in rushing.
This line feels like it’s 5-7 yards too low.
Pick: Jayden Daniels over 45.5 rushing yards
Soppe: This game has the highest projected total on the board, and I think that’s 100% right. I’m a little skittish about betting the game’s total, understanding that both teams are capable of running the ball and thus melting some clock. Yet, I have no issue in betting on the pregame script.
During the regular season, the Commanders ranked 25th in yards per play allowed in the first half of first quarters (29th in yards per carry in that very specific window).
That lines up nicely with a Bucs offense that leads the NFL in yards gained in the first 7.5 minutes (second-most yards per play). The fact that they rank 18th in the second half of the first quarter hints that we are looking at a singular scripted possession to isolate, and we get to do that at even odds in the betting market against a defense that can be had.
Weather won’t be an issue, and with the balance that Bucky Irving gives an offense that has seen Baker Mayfield complete 75.4% of his passes over the past four weeks, I think they at least get into position for a field goal. And we have access to the team with the highest FG% in the sport (30 of 32, 93.8%).
Pick: Buccaneers to score on their first drive
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
Soppe: We saw the Detroit Lions make the Minnesota Vikings awfully uncomfortable by blitzing all game long, and if the Los Angeles Rams were watching, I think there’s a good chance we see more of the same in this spot.
If that’s the case, this could be an absolutely reckless game when it comes to defensive play-calling … and I love it!
We know that Minnesota excels with its exotic blitz schemes and that the Rams rank fourth in pressure rate when blitzing. That puts both of these statuesque QBs in a tough spot.
- Ninth in non-pressured passer rating
- 32nd in pressured passer rating
Of course, the NFL season is long, and we see ebb and flow. In that vein, I wanted to check on Stafford’s form when he’s heated up.
Pressured Passer Rating Splits
- Weeks 1-11: 54.1
- Weeks 12-18: 43.8
That’s a 19% decline that I think has a good chance at being realized with the Vikings coming to town. In the six games in which the Rams have allowed pressure at the highest rate, they’ve scored 18.2 points per game, a 22.5% decline from their other 11 games.
Interesting.
I mentioned Detroit making Sam Darnold uncomfortable over the weekend and my belief that Los Angeles uses that as a blueprint. Darnold’s trends are moving in the same direction as those of Stafford:
Pressured Passer Rating Splits
- Weeks 1-14: 109.8 (wow!)
- Weeks 15-18: 41.1
There’s going to be some crossover here, but it speaks to teams figuring this Minnesota offense out. They have plenty of talent, so of course they can move the ball in spurts, but finishing off drives has been an increasingly alarming problem.
Red-Zone TD Rates, Vikings
- Weeks 1-9: 64% (7th)
- Weeks 10-18: 50% (23rd)
This being an indoor game is a bit of a concern, as it increases the FGM expectancy from distance. But if I lose this ticket because of deep field goals, I’ll tip my cap.
45+ Yard Field Goal Make Percentage Splits
- Weeks 1-8: 73.4%
- Weeks 9-18: 68.2%
I think we have many outs to cash both of these tickets. I’m layering these two wagers to protect against what happened to Minnesota in Week 18, and its offensive struggles elevated the point total of the opposition (otherwise, I’d be all-in on the “neither team” prop that DraftKings has priced at -120).
Pick: Vikings/Rams under 47.5
Pick: Neither team to score 30 points
Bearman: I know I will be in the minority here, as everyone is in love with all the NFC North teams. Don’t get me wrong, the Vikings are a very good team that earned those 14 wins and came within one of the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the NFC.
But when it was go time vs. the Lions, they didn’t show. Darnold had his worst game of the season, the team could not convert red-zone opportunities, and they were outcoached and outplayed by Dan Campbell’s Lions.
The fallout from that is a road trip against a very dangerous Rams team. A Rams team that is so confident they can make a run that they didn’t care if they got the third or fourth seed, having to play a 14-win team.
This LA team has been here before, having run the table three years ago and losing by one point to Detroit last season. Taking Week 18 out of the equation, the Rams ended with five consecutive wins, including a shootout win over the Bills and low-scoring wins over the Niners, Jets, and Cardinals.
They can beat you in the air with Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua or on the ground with Kyren Williams.
Meanwhile, the Vikings are good, but they have very little postseason experience. And the one game they played two years ago was a home blowout loss to Daniel Jones and the New York Giants.
The game will be played in Arizona, but I don’t think that matters since the Rams don’t have much of a home-field advantage anyhow. They also won their last five games away from LA this season.
Pick: Rams ML (-102)