The Falcons didn't take some massive leap forward offensively after moving on from Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder. Yet, Bijan Robinson still managed to prove he was as good as advertised. Robinson's opportunity share went from a paltry 52.3% in 2023 to nearly 70% in 2024. Treated like the lead back he is, Robinson averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB3. With a full offseason to develop, this offense should be even better during Michael Penix Jr.'s second season. Robinson has 20-touchdown upside in 2025.
Given how well running backs performed compared to wide receivers, and the reactionary nature of fantasy managers, Saquon Barkley will likely get the nod over Ja'Marr Chase as the most common top pick in 2025 drafts. It just won't be unanimous the way Christian McCaffrey was in 2024. Barkley became the ninth running back in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season. Despite losing a number of touchdowns to the tush push, Barkley still managed to score 13 on the ground and two more through the air. His 22.2 fantasy points per game led all running backs.
If we ever get a full season of Gibbs with an entire backfield to himself, we're talking 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson level upside. In some ways, Gibbs may end up overvalued next year due to Montgomery missing the end of the 2024 season. Fantasy managers are very reactionary and the last thing we will remember is Gibbs melting faces over the final month of the season. With that said, it's not as if Gibbs wasn't still elite with Montgomery. His Week 18 eruption pushed him over 20 fantasy points per game, but he was firmly around 18 with Montgomery. He's well worth a mid-first round selection.
Death. Taxes. Derrick Henry. Simply put, Henry is built different. That's why he can do what he's doing at over 30 years old. No running back over the age of 30 has ever rushed for more yards than Henry's 1,921, which was second in the league behind Saquon Barkley. Henry ran for a league-leading 16 touchdowns (tied with Jahmyr Gibbs, plus he had two more through the air). It's the third time in his career he led the league in rushing touchdowns.
The argument in favor of second-round De'Von Achane was that he had the potential to break fantasy. On the surface, he came up short. While 17.6 fantasy points per game is nothing to scoff at, we know he has legendary upside, and that's not hitting it. When you dig deeper, you realize that Achane did exhibit that league-winning upside. He averaged 22.5 ppg in his 11 games with Tua Tagovailoa healthy. We certainly can't bank on Tagovailoa ever staying on the field. However, Achane has proven to be an elite RB1, and is well worth a first round selection in 2025.
The first month of the season suggests the Bengals always wanted two guys in this backfield. Once Zack Moss went down, the Bengals didn't really have any other choice than to keep Brown on the field as much as possible. It's hard to fathom he once again sees an 80% snap share and over a 90% opportunity share like he did after Moss went on IR. Right now, though, the Bengals only have Brown. From Week 4 onward, he averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, elite RB1 numbers. For now, he gets the benefit of the doubt.
I'm certainly not convinced McCaffrey is done. Quite the contrary, in fact. If you told me for sure that McCaffrey plays 14+ games in 2025, I'll tell you for sure this ranking is too low. 2025 will be a unique opportunity for fantasy managers. It will be the best price we get on McCaffrey...ever. There's virtually no chance he returns par value. Either he's able to get healthy and he's still Christian McCaffrey...or it's over. CMC around the 2-3 turn will be the best or worst pick in every fantasy draft.
Look at how the season finished. Bucky Irving completely reduced Rachaad White to an obvious passing down role. Essentially, White became a pass blocker, not even touching the ball in the final game of the season. Meanwhile, Irving averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game from Week 6 onward, which included Week 14, when he left the game early after scoring just 2.8 points. Remove that game and he's at 18.2. This isn't a situation like 2023 when the Bucs had no choice. They had options. Both White and Sean Tucker have proven capable of handling volume when asked. They chose to feature the rookie. In year two, it will be even better.
After it was all said and done, Jonathan Taylor bounced back pretty nicely in 2024. His 17.5 fantasy points per game marked his best average since his overall RB1 finish in 2021. The Colts had issues last season, most notably their inability to decide which quarterback they wanted to go with. It will be Anthony Richardson in next year, which probably isn't great for Taylor's absolute ceiling. He's now finished with a target share below 9% in consecutive seasons. Without receiving upside, Taylor is essentially a less Derrick Henry on a worse offense. But he's still an immensely talented back who possesses 20-touchdown upside. If he can get to 17.5 ppg with only 12 touchdowns, he could easily hit 20 ppg with an outlier touchdown year.
It turns out maybe we shouldn't blanket fade veteran running backs changing teams. Barkley was the overall RB1 and Josh Jacobs had the second-best season of his career. With an offensive improvement by going to the Packers, Jacobs rebounded to average 17.6 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB8. There's little reason to think his role in 2025 won't be the same as it was in 2024. But we can ding him a little because he's unlikely to score 16 touchdowns again.
So much for Blake Corum being a threat to Kyren Williams. It was no surprise that Williams took a step back in 2024 after averaging 21.3 fantasy points per game in 2023. However, it's not as if fantasy managers who drafted Williams in the second round are upset over his 17.0 ppg. Williams led all running backs in snap share at 88.4% and his 82.8% opportunity share was third in the league. As much as we'd love to see more receiving volume, Williams has an elite volume role in a good offense. He's officially proven that his 2023 breakout wasn't a fluke.
The final three weeks (excluding Week 18) definitely put a damper on an otherwise superb season. Joe Mixon averaged a career-best 18.2 fantasy points per game, which, again, included a dismal stretch from Weeks 15-17 that saw him fail to reach double-digit fantasy points in any of those contests. Did Mixon fade down the stretch? I don't think that was it. Rather, I think he just ran into three brutal matchups at the worst possible time. Mixon carried fantasy managers to the playoffs and then just when you needed him most, he vanished. That type of performance leaves a sour taste in fantasy managers' mouths, which could result in Mixon being a value once again in 2025.
