The Los Angeles Chargers took a one-year hiatus from the playoffs, made some changes, and are now right back to it. Armed with an 11-win season and one of the top defenses in the league, Justin Herbert might have also found himself a young WR1 in Ladd McConkey.
Meanwhile, the Houston Texans had quite the sophomore slump this year. Bobby Slowik hasn’t been on his A-game this season, C.J. Stroud just looks off, injuries have piled up, and more. Yet, they still won a weak AFC South and have made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. I am not as optimistic as I was last season, but this team should still be a tough out.
Let’s look into the NFL betting lines and information ahead of the opening matchup for Wild Card Weekend and the NFL playoffs.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Chargers -3 - Moneyline
Chargers (-162); Texans (+136) - Over/Under
42.5 total points - Game Time
4:30 p.m ET - Location
NRG Stadium, Houston
Chargers vs. Texans Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Texans rank 25th in offensive EPA (expected points added) per play. Six of the seven teams below them offensively have five or fewer wins, with the exception (the Dallas Cowboys) sitting at 7-10. They lack the explosive passing from last year, ranking 23rd in passes of 20+ yards this season at 2.8 a game.
They are 29th in rushing EPA, 16th in explosive rushing rate, 15th in yards per rush, and 27th in third-down conversion percentage on runs. Joe Mixon finished 33rd of 44 running backs in yards per rush and 28th of 46 in EPA per rush, headlining an overall disappointing rushing offense that really struggled and set the offense back on second downs.
The Texans’ offense was slightly below the league average on both first and third downs this season, ranking 19th and 18th, respectively, in EPA while having a pass rate over expected that ranked seventh and second on those downs, respectively. On second downs, however, their pass rate over expectation was -4.58% (26th in the NFL). Their EPA on second downs was 28th.
The refusal to pass the ball when the run game wasn’t working led to third-down issues for Houston, as they had the longest average third-down distance in the league. Pairing this with the fact that their offense was constantly put in below-league-average situations (27th in offensive starting field position), it starts to make sense why this offense has struggled when you also add in the injuries as well.
They will be facing a defense in Los Angeles that is coached well, ranking sixth-highest in coverage unpredictability. The Chargers have been average at getting to the quarterback but rank sixth in defensive EPA and ninth in success rate. They do a particularly fantastic job in the red zone, ranking fourth in EPA and second in success rate.
What they struggle with is man coverage, ranking 24th in defensive EPA in man compared to fifth in zone. Luckily, Houston’s offense is below average against both. The other weakness of the Chargers’ defense is explosive passing. They rank 28th in passes of 20+ yards given up per game, again something that Houston isn’t well-equipped to take advantage of.
On the flip side, the Chargers rank 14th in EPA offensively but 30th in success rate. They have the fourth-highest rate of three-and-outs but rank eighth in explosive passing rate. With such a boom-or-bust offense, they perform better against defenses with the same tendencies.
Houston’s defense is not like this. They rank fifth in defensive EPA, sixth in success rate, and fifth in turnover EPA. The only advantage Los Angeles might find is that Houston’s defense ranks 19th and 20th in explosive passing and rushing rate allowed, respectively
Under pressure, the Chargers rank 14th in EPA but fifth when blitzed. It will be a strength-on-strength matchup for the offensive vs. defensive lines in this game. The Chargers are best at the tackle position where Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater have done fantastic this season. The Texans’ best pass rushers are also on the outside, with both Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter among the league’s best.
Overall, I am going to stick with Los Angeles in this game. The Texans’ offense has been poor this season and they are going up against a defense that does really well in all but a couple of areas that Houston cannot exploit.
My pick: Chargers ML (-162)