“Generational” is the buzzword of the 2020s. That receiver from Harvard? Generational. That small forward from Luxembourg? Generational. That shortstop from Osaka? Generational.
Fact is, unproven generational talents rarely make any significant noise upon their arrival to their respective professional leagues. Further, outside of an outlier like LeBron James, you don’t recognize a generational talent until they become a generational talent. In 2000, six quarterbacks were supposed to have a better shot at immortality than Tom Brady.
There’s still so much to be decided, but it’s worth checking in on an exciting, but polarizing, group of rookie quarterbacks, including the “generational” Caleb Williams.
2024 Rookie Quarterback Rankings
In 2022, Williams earned a Heisman Trophy, and the following year, he earned the generational tag. Based on his rookie season in Chicago, he’s fallen short of lofty expectations.
Meanwhile, Washington Commanders Jayden Daniels is tracking better to earn a place in Canton than the five other quarterbacks chosen in the first round of the 2024 Draft. But what does PFN’s QB+ metric have to say about the class? How do our proprietary numbers rank this season’s top first-year QBs?
(Note: Grades and rankings do not reflect Week 18’s statistics.)
5) Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
- PFN QB+: Incomplete
- PFN Grade: Incomplete
- PFN Ranking: Incomplete
- Team Record: 8-9
- 2024 Stats:
- 775 passing yards
- Three passing touchdowns
- 11 rushing yards
- One rushing touchdown
Regular Season Recap: Penix’s report card is justifiably loaded with incompletes, as he only played in five games this season. That said, he fared well in his Week 18 outing—a must-win game that could’ve nabbed the Falcons the NFC South title—earning a solid QB+ score of 80.6 and a nifty grade of B-.
MICHAEL PENIX JR. PUTTING ON AN ABSOLUTE SHOW! 🤩
(🎥: @NFL) pic.twitter.com/w9ALX25gkP
— theScore (@theScore) January 5, 2025
He’ll roll into 2025 training camp as the unquestioned starter, with nary a Kirk Cousins to be seen, and the expectations will be high. Not generationally high, admittedly, but high nonetheless.
4) Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
- PFN QB+: 63.6
- PFN Grade: D
- PFN Ranking: 33
- Team Record: 5-12
- 2024 Stats:
- 3,541 passing yards
- 20 passing touchdowns
- 489 rushing yards
- 0 rushing touchdowns
Regular Season Recap: When Williams didn’t break any scoreboards during his first two months in a Chicago uniform, the “bust” talk began in earnest. Sure, his Bears had a brutal year, losing ten of their last 11 games. And sure, Williams was sacked 68 times, tied for the third-most in a single season in NFL history. And sure, he failed to top 200 passing yards in eight of his 17 games. So the whole bust thing was semi-reasonable.
In his defense, though, the Bears’ offensive line was an injury-riddled mess, the game planning was so meh that Chicago fired their head coach and offensive coordinator mid-season, and the Bears finished 25th in the league in rushing yardage. This supporting cast was not what fans anticipated, putting too much on Williams’ plate.
Williams had some bright moments in Weeks 5 and 6, but he also holds three of the lowest QB+ scores by a rookie this season. And his Week 1 QB+ score of 59.4 ranks as the fourth-lowest among 514 QB+ graded games.
CALEB WILLIAMS WITH THE MAHOMES MAGIC
JUMPING OVER DEFENDERS 🤯pic.twitter.com/DL6tXrlGiz
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 24, 2024
Nonetheless, his 3,541 passing yards were the fourth-highest total in franchise history, and his 353 consecutive completions without an interception was an NFL rookie record.
The USC product is far from Mahomes, but he’s also far from a bust. If the Bears get him some quality coaching, the sky is the limit.
3) Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
- PFN QB+: 75.2 (18th in NFL)
- PFN Grade: C
- PFN Ranking: 18th
- Team Record: 10-7
- 2024 Stats:
- 3,775 passing yards
- 29 passing touchdowns
- 430 rushing yards
- Four rushing touchdowns
Regular Season Recap: Despite a killer senior year at Oregon, Nix was never viewed as a top-five draft pick. For that matter, eyebrows were raised when Denver snatched him up at No. 12, ahead of Brock Bowers, Jared Verse, and Brian Thomas Jr.
But the proof is in the orange-and-blue pudding, as Nix recorded the highest QB+ game score by a rookie since 2019 in Week 18, racking up a QB+ score of 93.7 (A) against the Chiefs—his best performance of the season in the Broncos’ playoff-clinching victory.
Bo Nix: 17/17 183 yards 3 TD’s
I don’t care who you are playing, that’s almost impossible to do!pic.twitter.com/lybECZe5aE
— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) January 5, 2025
But Nix looked like he belonged immediately, leading the Broncos to five wins in his first eight games, and ultimately to a surprise postseason berth. He saved his best for last, racking up 321 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and 47 yards on the ground during Sunday’s playoff-clinching win.
Considering the depth of the AFC West, it’s hard to imagine Denver making a Super Bowl run as long as Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert keep doing Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert things, but Nix will sure make his team interesting.
2) Drake Maye, New England Patriots
- PFN QB+: 74.7
- PFN Grade: C
- PFN Ranking: 19
- Team Record: 4-13
- 2024 Stats:
- 2,276 passing yards
- 15 passing touchdowns
- 421 rushing yards
- Two rushing touchdowns
Regular Season Recap: Maye didn’t get his first start until Week 6—a super-questionable decision that was likely part of the reason the Patriots canned one-and-done head coach Jerod Mayo—and he proceeded to drop nine of his 11 games.
He can’t shoulder the entire blame, though, as New England wrapped up the season with a point differential of -128, good (or bad) for 28th in the league. Point differential is a full-team stat, and goes a long way towards proving that few, if any quarterbacks could’ve made a significant difference in the Patriots’ fortunes.
Drake Maye Top Plays from 2024 (🎥)
A top 5 QB by 2026
⚠️ WARNING: Do not try at home. Performed by a professional behind the 32nd ranked offensive line in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/IZadSRadVK
— SCOUTD (@scoutdnfl) December 19, 2024
Maye demonstrated pocket poise, toughness, and better-than-expected wheels, so if Eliot Wolf can get the 22-year-old some help, there’s plenty of reason for optimism.
1) Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
- PFN QB+: 85.7
- PFN Grade: B
- PFN Ranking: 9
- Team Record: 12-5
- 2024 Stats:
- 3,568 passing yards
- 25 passing touchdowns
- 891 rushing yards
- Six rushing touchdowns
Regular Season Recap:Jayden Daniels finished the season with the highest QB+ score for a rookie since the metric was introduced in 2019. For the sake of comparison, last season, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud recorded the eighth-best QB+ score of any quarterback while earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Meanwhile, Mac Jones’ QB+ grades have steadily declined over the past three seasons, with grades of D, D+, and F, respectively.
Does Daniels have a shot at generationality? To answer that, you have to decide if his primary comparison is generational — Lamar Jackson. After a career season, the Baltimore Ravens superstar is very much in the MVP mix. Potentially bringing home his third MVP in 2024, Jackson is one of the league’s era-defining players.
Daniels might be the next-best thing.
JAYDEN DANIELS WITH A HAIL MARY TO BEAT THE BEARS AS TIME EXPIRES 🤯
WHAT HAVE WE JUST WITNESSED?!?!?!
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/xuSQsWlODR
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 27, 2024
Daniels hasn’t yet reached Jackson-esque levels, but if he remains healthy—if he can avoid ailments like the rib injury that slightly derailed the middle of his season—following in Jackson’s footsteps is a semi-realistic trajectory.
More About QB+
Quarterback+ utilizes EPA measurements in certain situations alongside other variables to evaluate a quarterback’s performance over the course of a game or season. By using EPA, we are able to provide added context to the situation around a quarterback’s performance that is lost in other widely available passer rating metrics, which just look at high-level box-score statistics. Using EPA also means that we integrate rushing yards off scrambles into our evaluations.
Additionally, we use net yards per attempt in our equation, as opposed to just standard yards per attempt, to account for the impact of sacks and their negative impact on the game. Our metric also includes an element that evaluates the quarterback’s performance in key situations on third down.
Finally, what really sets QB+ apart from other metrics is that we use situation statistics to evaluate a quarterback’s performance in crucial moments of the game. We have defined clutch situations by examining the most impactful moments and situations in games over the last 20+ years to determine which to include in our metric.