Well, that was interesting. Because all of us fantasy football prognosticators envisioned Rex Burkhead, James Robinson, Cedrick Wilson, and Allen Lazard being top 12 players this past week. So let’s review our Fantasy Football Consistency Score (CS), and Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score (DPACS) after what we have learned and highlight the top Week 4 matchups and players to start or sit for your fantasy lineups.
If you would like more detailed information on how the CS and DPACS works, please refer to the Introduction to the Fantasy Football Consistency Score. But the basic premise is, the higher the CS, the more consistent a player is scoring high-level fantasy points. Or, in the case of DPACS, the consistency in which that team allows high-level fantasy points to the position.
PSA: I don’t feel the need to tell you, the savvy fantasy G.M., to start a player like Patrick Mahomes every week. I abide by the golden rule: start your studs. However, if there is glaring evidence to sit a bonafide starter, we will discuss that as needed.
[sv slug=”fantasy”]Quarterbacks to start/sit in fantasy football Week 4
Start Joe Burrow
In his young rookie career, Joe Burrow is averaging 30 passing attempts per game and has over 300 yards in each of the past two games as well as a combined five touchdowns. The first-round pick is really starting to come into his own and live up to the hype, despite the team being 0-2-1. He might even still be available on your league’s waiver wire.
Burrow has been everything fantasy football managers could have wanted. He has the 10th most fantasy points on the season for all quarterbacks and is averaging 20.41 fantasy points per game. We don’t have enough of a sample size to include Burrow in the CS rankings yet. But if we did only three games for CS, he would be second among all QBs with a 12.19 CS. Burrow has been a stud and is still looking for that first win.
In Week 4, Burrow’s managers get a lovely matchup to start him in as the Bengals host the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the QB position and own the third-highest DPACS at 9.76. We just saw Ryan Fitzpatrick pick this defense apart with a 90% completion percentage, two passing touchdowns plus a rushing score in prime time. Now, these two teams match up with the ninth highest projected total for the week. Fire up Burrow with confidence in this matchup.
Sit Cam Newton
Cam Newton might very well be the fantasy football MVP come the end of the year, mainly because savvy fantasy football managers were able to load up at other positions and snag Newton super late. But this week, there is a strong reason to stream someone else and sit Newton.
In a Monday Night Football game that was hardly competitive, we just watched the Kansas City Chiefs completely stifle the 2019 NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson, to a rough line of 97 yards in the air and one touchdown. His 83 yards rushing saved him from a completely loaded fantasy football diaper situation, but he still finished the week with only 14.18 fantasy points, coming in 23rd on the week.
We would have been better off starting Nick Foles, who didn’t come into the game until the fourth quarter, over Jackson. Now, Newton faces off against this defense in Kansas City. No, thank you.
Newton is no longer matchup proof. His 5.04 CS is ranked 28th among all signal-callers, and he has thrown as many touchdowns as he has interceptions so far this season.
Against the Las Vegas Raiders this past week, Cam put up less than 200 yards passing and failed to score on the ground. His 11.18 fantasy points was his lowest total on the year, ranking 28th for the week. This matchup highly suggests that he is a sit in Week 4.
Which running backs should you start/sit in Week 4?
Start Kenyan Drake
It has been a rough couple of weeks for Kenyan Drake, but I agree 100% with Ben Rolfe, and now is the time to go out and try to “buy low” when it comes to Drake. After this matchup, that window is going to close.
Drake is averaging just under 20 opportunities a game in 2020, so the volume is there. His -19% Fantasy Point Differential (FPD) is the only concerning part. But his FPD during his time in Arizona last season was the exact opposite, so we should see some regression towards the mean as the season continues, especially with that many opportunities on a weekly basis.
Drake gets a Week 4 matchup versus the Carolina Panthers, whose DPACS of 25.88 is easily the highest in the NFL – 8.49 points higher than the next highest defense. Over the past six fantasy-relevant weeks, the Panthers are averaging 37.62 fantasy points allowed to the RB position. In 2020, they are averaging 42.8. This is one of the softest positional matchups in the NFL, and despite Drake letting you down for two weeks in a row, start him everywhere you can in Week 4.
Sit Chris Carson/Carlos Hyde
As of right now, I don’t know if Chris Carson is going to be suiting up for Week 4 or not. But, be it Carson or Carlos Hyde, who cares? Don’t start either one. If Carson does play, there is a better than zero chance he re-injures his knee that was sprained after a dirty alligator roll by Trysten Hill. And let’s face it, if we roll the dice and start Hyde, Carson will play the whole dang game.
Aside from that ambiguity, the Seattle Seahawks travel to south beach and take the field against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins DPACS is 23rd, 8.26, and their average points allowed, 24.98, ranks 17th. This isn’t a great matchup for running backs, but especially when they are banged up or middling on the depth chart.
With the fourth-highest over/under for the week, this is aligning to be a shoot out between Russell Wilson and Fitzpatrick. Wilson is “cooking” with gas recently and the Seahawks are not going to need to lean on the ground game. Start all your pass-catchers in this matchup, but sit the Seattle running backs.
What wide receivers should you start/sit in fantasy football for Week 4?
Start DeVante Parker
As I mentioned above, the wizards in the desert are predicting a high scoring affair between the Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins. The Seahawks offense, in particular, is absolutely on-fire, complete “NBA Jam” style. This means Fitzpatrick is going to have to air the ball out to keep up and that is a great narrative for DeVante Parker to step up for your fantasy football lineup.
Parker is leading all Miami receivers for the season with 17 targets and is only two behind team leader Mike Gesicki. In Week 3, Parker snagged all five of his team-leading targets for 69 yards. But only tight ends were allowed in the endzone that week, so Parker didn’t notch a score. But his 5.46 CS is still ninth among WRs, his +27% FPD is 28th, and he is clearly still the top receiver in Miami.
The Seahawks secondary can get got. Their average points allowed to the position group in 2020 is an astonishing 73.2 points per game, and their DPACS, 18.91 ranks third highest. They are giving up fantasy points to receivers like they’re an Oprah holiday special. A porous secondary and a high-scoring shootout means that all lights are green for Parker in Week 4.
Sit Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp blew up in Week 3 for 107 receiving yards and a touchdown, pulling in nine out of 10 targets and finally validating his third-round ADP. Fantasy football managers everywhere are going to be tempted to start him in Week 4, but if you have the luxury to, sit him this week against the New York Giants.
I spent all summer jumping onto any podcast that would have me to talk about my Fantasy Football Consistency Collection. So I am on the record, multiple times, talking about the Rams and how Kupps’ and Tyler Higbee’s CS worried me. Looking at the data, I just couldn’t see how both Kupp and Higbee could sustain fantasy viability. Rather, one or the other was going to do well. And so far, in 2020, that has panned out.
In Week 1, Kupp was the 60th receiver, while Higbee was the 21st tight end. In Week 2, Higbee exploded for 25+ points and was the top TE for the week, whereas Kupp only saw six targets and was the 33rd receiver in fantasy. When Kupp stepped up in Week 3 as the eighth-best receiver, Higbee dropped down to 20th among tight ends. When one feasts, the other starves.
The Los Angeles Rams take on the New York Giants in Week 4, who have the 22nd ranked DPACS against receivers. On the flip side, their DPACS is 13th versus tight ends. I have to believe that Higbee and Gerald Everett handle this Giants defense while Robert Woods gets his as he always does. Factor in this offense icing the game away with their surging running game, and there really isn’t much left for poor Cooper Kupp.
Taking a look at tight ends in Week 4
Start T.J. Hockenson
Despite only having one touchdown on the season, T.J. Hockenson is still the eighth-best tight end in fantasy football in 2020. Tied for the 14th most targets at the position certainly helps, and racking up the seventh-most yards seals the deal. His +29% FPD demonstrates he is making the most out of those targets. Now, the sophomore tight end matches up against the New Orleans Saints, who have the sixth-highest DPACS and second-highest average points allowed to tight ends since Week 14 of 2019.
Over the past two weeks, the Saints have allowed a total of 22 receptions, 240 receiving yards, and three touchdowns, not just to Darren Waller, but to the likes of superstars Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger, Marcedes Lewis, and Foster Moreau.
Hockenson is a more athletic talent than all of the above, not named “Waller.” He will have no problem connecting with Matthew Stafford to take advantage of this defense, especially Malcolm Jenkins, who has been embarrassed by receiving tight ends in 2020.
Sit Hayden Hurst
Welp, full transparency, I was wrong. This offseason, I really believed Hayden Hurst was going to step into a tight end friendly system that he would immediately benefit from. That has simply not materialized on a regular basis.
In 2019, Austin Hooper averaged 7.5 targets per game. Hurst, on the same offense with the same quarterback under center, is averaging five targets per game and received only three, three, this past week. He turned those three targets into one reception for one yard. His saving grace, for fantasy purposes, was that it was at least a touchdown. With a steep decline in targets from Week 2 (eight) to Week 3 (three), Hurst has to be seen as a matchup dependant streamer; not a weekly start.
The Atlanta Falcons get to destroy the hopes and dreams of Atlanta sports fans everywhere from Wisconson this week as they take on the Green Bay Packers. The Packers 1.25 DPACS against tight ends is the lowest in the NFL and a clear matchup to avoid. In their Week 3 showdown against the New Orleans Saints, they held Jared Cook to two receptions for 21 yards and no scores.
The Falcons have plenty of other pass-catching options. They don’t need to lean on Hurst, and the Packers are not going to give Hurst any grace. The Falcons desperately need a win, and Matt Ryan isn’t going to force the situation with Hurst when he can utilize Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones. Sit Hurst until a much better matchup arises.
Hopefully, these fantasy football start/sit recommendations help you dominate your Week 4 matchups. Good luck ladies and gentlemen!